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LeeG
06-11-2017, 05:27 AM
Curious if real estate folks in Florida talk about this

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/high-ground-is-becoming-hot-property-as-sea-level-rises/

If there's anything more complicated than the global forces of thermal expansion, ice sheet melt and ocean circulation that contribute to worldwide sea-level rise, it might be the forces of real estate speculation and the race-based historical housing patterns that color present-day gentrification in Miami.
One of the great ironies of those historic housing patterns in Miami is that for decades under Jim Crow, laws and zoning restricted black people to parts of the urban core, an older part of the community that sits on relatively higher ground along a limestone ridge that runs like a topographic stripe down the eastern coast of South Florida. Now, many of those neighborhoods, formerly redlined by lenders and in some places bound in by a literal color wall, have an amenity not yet in the real estate listings: They're on higher ground and are less likely to flood as seas rise.

PeterSibley
06-11-2017, 05:40 AM
http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/florida.shtml

Paul Pless
06-11-2017, 05:40 AM
so what do you think? does miami ultimately go amsterdam with a dike or venice with flooded basements?

skuthorp
06-11-2017, 05:44 AM
Six meters eh? Neither…….
Just move.

Wet Feet
06-11-2017, 05:47 AM
Make the most of it while you can......

Paul Pless
06-11-2017, 05:49 AM
Six meters eh? Neither…….
Just move.

Its not goona be overnight, probably 'just' two feet by 2060

LeeG
06-11-2017, 05:53 AM
But long before that wouldn't mortgage and insurance companies make low properties less attractive and high ground properties more attractive?

Paul Pless
06-11-2017, 05:58 AM
yes

jack grebe
06-11-2017, 06:08 AM
so what do you think? does miami ultimately go amsterdam with a dike or venice with flooded basements?

LOL........ There are no basements in Miami.

I sold the house in Ft Lauderdale last year and got out of
the area, but that was more about traffic and not liking city
life..... New place is about 80 ft above sea level and well off
the coast.

skuthorp
06-11-2017, 06:25 AM
Mate down the road and I worked out a couple of years ago that he'd be beachside. But we don't need to build the pier just yet.

Paul Pless
06-11-2017, 06:31 AM
[QUOTE=jack grebe;5259527]LOL........ There are no basements in Miami./QUOTE]jack, most of the flooded basements in venice, were originally first and second floors of buildings before they sank

McMike
06-11-2017, 07:20 AM
so what do you think? does miami ultimately go amsterdam with a dike or venice with flooded basements?

Hopefully not on my dime, let the local businesses pay for it or let it sink. My only hope and my will would be to compensate anyone with a home value less than $200,000. The rich folks can afford the lose their property or to build dikes.

Paul Pless
06-11-2017, 07:29 AM
Think of it as an epic infrastructure economic stimulus/employment opportunity.

LeeG
06-11-2017, 07:30 AM
so what do you think? does miami ultimately go amsterdam with a dike or venice with flooded basements?

Whoever has the money. I could see islands of resorts and rich houses but depopulation seems most likely for most.

Reynard38
06-11-2017, 07:47 AM
From NASA

"AR5 expresses “medium confidence” in these projections, derived from process-based (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/glossary/#item_216) models—that is, attempts to simulate the mechanics and interactions of the factors driving sea level rise and land ice changes. But coupled general circulation numerical models (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/glossary/#item_65)—considered “process-based”—explain 90 percent of the observed sea level rise between 1971 and 2010, as well as that observed during a shorter period, 1993 to 2010 (see “By the Numbers”). This increases confidence that these models are reliable under present-day conditions, despite the fact that the models’ current rate of rise, 3.7 millimeters per year, is significantly higher than shown by observations. Since these coupled models do not include ice sheet instabilities, their projections very likely represent a “lower bound” for future sea level rise."

So a 3.7mm per year predicted rise is significantly higher than what observations bear out. But let's go with that number.
I'm 55 and building a house on a piece of land that is at 9' msl. Let's say I'm a resident of this planet for another 30 years. That equates to @ 4.25" of sea level rise.
What if I leave it to my daughter? She's 24 and given medical advances will likely see 100.
11 inches of rise in her lifetime.

Not saying it isn't happening. Not saying we shouldn't take steps to mitigate climate change. Am saying there's a lot of info out there designed to spread fear, and it doesn't help the case that we do indeed need to make changes. When the Loonies get debunked it undermines real science.

McMike
06-11-2017, 07:51 AM
Think of it as an epic infrastructure economic stimulus/employment opportunity.

I think of the more reasonable relocation of the populations to higher ground in the same way, only more sustainable. We would then have the opportunity to do it right this time, think of how a well thought out city plan would impact the day to day happiness of it's populous. And, this time, no lead pipes.

Nicholas Scheuer
06-11-2017, 08:01 AM
BIL's canal-side home-site in Punta Gorda, situated atop a 5-6'ft wall, will be awash with each flood tide. About the time he gets it all shaped up the way he wants, the bloom will be off that rose.

Paul Pless
06-11-2017, 08:25 AM
From NASA

"AR5 expresses “medium confidence” in these projections, derived from process-based (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/glossary/#item_216) models—that is, attempts to simulate the mechanics and interactions of the factors driving sea level rise and land ice changes. But coupled general circulation numerical models (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/glossary/#item_65)—considered “process-based”—explain 90 percent of the observed sea level rise between 1971 and 2010, as well as that observed during a shorter period, 1993 to 2010 (see “By the Numbers”). This increases confidence that these models are reliable under present-day conditions, despite the fact that the models’ current rate of rise, 3.7 millimeters per year, is significantly higher than shown by observations. Since these coupled models do not include ice sheet instabilities, their projections very likely represent a “lower bound” for future sea level rise."

So a 3.7mm per year predicted rise is significantly higher than what observations bear out. But let's go with that number.
I'm 55 and building a house on a piece of land that is at 9' msl. Let's say I'm a resident of this planet for another 30 years. That equates to @ 4.25" of sea level rise.
What if I leave it to my daughter? She's 24 and given medical advances will likely see 100.
11 inches of rise in her lifetime.

Not saying it isn't happening. Not saying we shouldn't take steps to mitigate climate change. Am saying there's a lot of info out there designed to spread fear, and it doesn't help the case that we do indeed need to make changes. When the Loonies get debunked it undermines real science.



So you are building on a site that is 9' above sea level; this part of Miami, already extent, is located on land that is 2'10" above sea level. . .

https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/03/9b/2f/db/miami-beach.jpg

Gerarddm
06-11-2017, 08:30 AM
I have seen those animated GIFs of what would happen if the ice caps melted. Literally all of Florida would be gone, not just Miami.

Breakaway
06-11-2017, 09:24 AM
How about just live your life and try to find some enjoyment? We are only here for a blink of an eye. Humankind has had to move for meterological and geological and astronomical reasons since we started walking upright. Things will work out.

Kevin

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
06-11-2017, 09:48 AM
so what do you think? does miami ultimately go amsterdam with a dike or venice with flooded basements?

Treat it as a pre-existing medical condition, and let the market solve the problem.

Or not.

CWSmith
06-11-2017, 10:13 AM
But long before that wouldn't mortgage and insurance companies make low properties less attractive and high ground properties more attractive?


Treat it as a pre-existing medical condition, and let the market solve the problem.

Or not.

Even at 2 feet in 40 years could lead to a significant number of mortgage failures. The banks are going to take it hard. And we all know who will pay for that.

jack grebe
06-11-2017, 11:10 AM
Even at 2 feet in 40 years could lead to a significant number of mortgage failures. The banks are going to take it hard. And we all know who will pay for that.

Not me, I'll be dead.

CWSmith
06-11-2017, 11:14 AM
Not me, I'll be dead.

Got kids, nieces and nephews, friends who have kids? Know any young people? Do you worry about the welfare of strangers?

Reynard38
06-11-2017, 11:16 AM
How about just live your life and try to find some enjoyment? We are only here for a blink of an eye. Humankind has had to move for meterological and geological and astronomical reasons since we started walking upright. Things will work out.

Kevin

Thank you.

Joe (SoCal)
06-11-2017, 11:22 AM
From Russ Manheimer (https://www.facebook.com/russ.manheimer) facebook page

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p526x296/18920687_10211168544227305_5726114822561213145_n.j pg?oh=f631ae89847ba7775b5f7f813b8ce24e&oe=59E3294F

Red Hook Brooklyn, New York Elevation: 3m / 10feet

jack grebe
06-11-2017, 11:35 AM
Got kids, nieces and nephews, friends who have kids? Know any young people? Do you worry about the welfare of strangers?

Yes, but change happens. I taught my children to deal with it, not to whine
about it. They will be fine, their life will just have a different set of challenges
than mine, just like mine had a different set than my father, and his father.

Life moves on and people will adapt as they have for thousands of years.

LeeG
06-11-2017, 09:52 PM
Depopulate, watch out everyone, refugees!! They're movin to your state!

https://thinkprogress.org/sea-level-migration-inland-d5f9e995c8bd

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*C4E8CDgTw7HAKlNtnBe3Uw.png

sharpiefan
06-11-2017, 10:04 PM
Park your house on a barge --> let it rise. :) All those condos should make good reefs.

Nicholas Carey
06-11-2017, 10:26 PM
so what do you think? does miami ultimately go amsterdam with a dike or venice with flooded basements?


Doesn't matter. Even a moderate rise in sea level turns the Biscayne Aquifer saline... and poof! "sayonara, drinking water for south Florida!"

skuthorp
06-11-2017, 10:37 PM
Doesn't matter. Even a moderate rise in sea level turns the Biscayne Aquifer saline... and poof! "sayonara, drinking water for south Florida!"
That's the point I was going to make Nicholas, it's not just the actual sea level, salivation of aquifers here would effect a few hundred thousand acres of prime agricultural country, and about 9'' to a foot would be enough. Add that this land is slumping, being driven under a range of uplift hills anyhow.

Reynard38
06-11-2017, 11:08 PM
I have seen those animated GIFs of what would happen if the ice caps melted. Literally all of Florida would be gone, not just Miami.

About as likely as Salma Hayek knocking on my hotel room door here in Canton Ohio tonight looking for some lovin'.

Chip-skiff
06-12-2017, 12:07 AM
That's the point I was going to make Nicholas, it's not just the actual sea level, salivation of aquifers here would effect a few hundred thousand acres of prime agricultural country, and about 9'' to a foot would be enough.

Jesus, Mary, and Joseph! Drooling aquifers!

Ain't these quare times?

LeeG
06-12-2017, 12:57 AM
Oh right, it's a hoax.

https://www.nrdc.org/trump-watch/trumps-interior-department-orders-removal-climate-change-language-reference-study-about

Trump’s Interior Department orders removal of climate change language in reference to a study about sea-level rise
May 22, 2017 Other
There is scientific consensus that sea levels will rise over the next century due to climate change. The reason is simple: The burning of fossil fuels releases pollution, including greenhouse gases that heat up the planet’s atmosphere, causing glaciers to melt, which adds water to the oceans. But when federal scientists published a paper last week highlighting the risk that flooding poses to coastal communities, the U.S. Department of the Interior deleted language referencing climate change. “While we were approving the news release, they had an issue with one or two of the lines [that] had to do with climate change and sea-level rise,” said one of the study’s coauthors, Sean Vitousek, a research assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. At the request of the Trump administration, the following line was removed from the press release: “Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding.” As another coauthor of the study put it: “The suppression of this information is a scandal.” This is certainly not the first—and likely won’t be the last time—the Trump administration buries or scrubs public information about climate change, one of the world’s most pressing problems.

skuthorp
06-12-2017, 02:23 AM
Publish in France.
Move to France.

PeterSibley
06-12-2017, 02:52 AM
This is informative, an interactive map.

https://gcpolcc.databasin.org/datasets/dd54d301894f4322a7a30832572c4a7e

john welsford
06-12-2017, 05:24 AM
Mate down the road and I worked out a couple of years ago that he'd be beachside. But we don't need to build the pier just yet.

If you started building it now you could use ordinary dry post drivers and scaffolding to erect it!
A bit more seriously, our govt has deemed that as of next year no permits will be issued for permanent residential buildings below 2 m above the present mean high water springs, and all significant roads, if repair or reconstruction is undertaken will be raised to the same level. We've already had one freeway lifted to that and more to follow.

John Welsford

PeterSibley
06-12-2017, 05:35 AM
An Australian calculator. http://www.ozcoasts.gov.au/climate/sd_visual.jsp

Paul Pless
06-12-2017, 05:57 AM
How about just live your life and try to find some enjoyment? We are only here for a blink of an eye. Humankind has had to move for meterological and geological and astronomical reasons since we started walking upright. Things will work out.

Kevin

This way of thinking is why we have had and continue to have phenomenon such as follows: acid rain, fuel shortages in the seventies, ddt poisoning leading to annihilation of pheasants, other game birds, and ultimately birds of prey, including our national symbol, deforestation and devastation of old growth forests, depletion of fish stocks. This way of thinking is why forty years after the clean water act women of child bearing age should limit their consumption of fish from the Great Lakes. This way of thinking led to the extinction of the passenger pigeon, the dodo, and a hundred other less 'famous' species in the last century, And as far as human kind being on the move, look at the acrimony and violence in own hemisphere from economic migration due to climate change, look at the wars being fought in Africa and Asia over economic migration due to climate change. I could go on. Any of us can go on, and we should.

This way of thinking. . .

An un-examined life is not worth living.
- Plato

jack grebe
06-12-2017, 06:39 AM
Yes, our challenges are different from that of our grandfathers and our grandsons will be different still........



Life goes on.

Glen Longino
06-12-2017, 06:49 AM
"Life goes on."

Until it does not!

CWSmith
06-12-2017, 06:52 AM
Doesn't matter. Even a moderate rise in sea level turns the Biscayne Aquifer saline... and poof! "sayonara, drinking water for south Florida!"

I hadn't thought of that. So, Florida is in trouble much sooner than I thought.

CWSmith
06-12-2017, 06:54 AM
Yes, but change happens. I taught my children to deal with it, not to whine
about it. They will be fine, their life will just have a different set of challenges
than mine, just like mine had a different set than my father, and his father.

Life moves on and people will adapt as they have for thousands of years.

The point is that we are not suppose to be the source of our children's struggles and problems. It is irresponsible of us to create a problem that we could address and just leave it to them to solve. That is not what adults do.

S.V. Airlie
06-12-2017, 08:46 AM
"Life goes on."

Until it does not!Life can go on in misery or it can go on in a healthy world, as in planet, Jack.

jack grebe
06-12-2017, 08:54 AM
Life can go on in misery or it can go on in a healthy world, as in planet, Jack.

Until it does not....

LeeG
06-12-2017, 09:12 AM
It's ok Jack, no one is trying to get you to feel a particular way when discussing this topic.

mdh
06-12-2017, 09:51 AM
This way of thinking is why we have had and continue to have phenomenon such as follows: acid rain, fuel shortages in the seventies, ddt poisoning leading to annihilation of pheasants, other game birds, and ultimately birds of prey, including our national symbol, deforestation and devastation of old growth forests, depletion of fish stocks. This way of thinking is why forty years after the clean water act women of child bearing age should limit their consumption of fish from the Great Lakes. This way of thinking led to the extinction of the passenger pigeon, the dodo, and a hundred other less 'famous' species in the last century, And as far as human kind being on the move, look at the acrimony and violence in own hemisphere from economic migration due to climate change, look at the wars being fought in Africa and Asia over economic migration due to climate change. I could go on. Any of us can go on, and we should.

This way of thinking. . .

An un-examined life is not worth living.
- Plato

You lack a consensus:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/henrymiller/2012/09/05/rachel-carsons-deadly-fantasies/#51bd26002484

BrianY
06-12-2017, 09:51 AM
How about just live your life and try to find some enjoyment? We are only here for a blink of an eye. Humankind has had to move for meterological and geological and astronomical reasons since we started walking upright. Things will work out.

Kevin


Yes, but change happens. I taught my children to deal with it, not to whine
about it. They will be fine, their life will just have a different set of challenges
than mine, just like mine had a different set than my father, and his father.

Life moves on and people will adapt as they have for thousands of years.

That's a totally BS attitude. Why worry about it? Because if you actually cared about your kids and their kids, you'd care about their quality of life. Yes, "life moves on and people will adapt as they have for thousands of years" but for a good part of those thousands of years, live was pretty crappy and there's no guarantee that it won't be crappy again in the future. Yes, "things will work out" but for whom and how? When Florida goes underwater, it won't be just the Floridians who are affected. Everyone in the US will be affected in some way, if only because everyone will be required to bear the financial burden and feel the financial effects off the massive relocation of people, the loss of jobs, etc. . And it won't just be Florida. When the sea level rises there, it's going to rise everywhere else with varying degrees of effects on infrastructure, economies, etc. There's a pretty good chance that the holes in the sand in which people like you have buried their heads are gonna get wet.

Now I'm not saying we should get all hysterical about it. We need to acknowledge and understand the problem, assess the potential effects and come up with plans to deal with them. Ignoring the problems won't make them go away. Our kids and grand kids will be much better off if we actually do something to deal with the problem instead of shrugging our shoulders and saying "Oh well, **** happens. I guess we'll just have to adapt".

skuthorp
06-12-2017, 05:19 PM
The world will be in chaos and billions of people will have to move or die. It won't just be the tide coming in permanently that we'll have to worry about.

Ron Carter
06-12-2017, 07:33 PM
Own a place 7' above mean sea level on the east shore of Sarasota Bay. 4 months, December through March. Several 1500+ house additions approved in the last couple of years locally and a supposed 20,000 + development north of Fort Meyers. The area will strangle on its own traffic and run out of fresh water long before the big flood, hurricanes excepted. Fortunately at 77 and the wife at 74 we probably won't see it. And yes we are part of the problem.

Domesticated_Mr. Know It All
06-12-2017, 08:45 PM
I'd be glad to live on a houseboat on the Florida Coast.
Especially if all the rich folks left.:)

Domesticated_Mr. Know It All
06-13-2017, 12:16 AM
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/58/71/17/5871171322bc70088140ae1c1e90d214.jpg

FishoutaFlorida
06-13-2017, 12:37 AM
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/58/71/17/5871171322bc70088140ae1c1e90d214.jpg

Hmmm, with a diving board on the upper deck and a bar-b-que on the lower...

It could work!

jack grebe
06-13-2017, 05:50 AM
Hmmm, with a diving board on the upper deck and a bar-b-que on the lower...

It could work!

Water and septic might be a problem......

LeeG
06-13-2017, 06:01 AM
Water and septic might be a problem......

Compost crapper. Solar still/desalinator