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Arizona Bay
05-23-2017, 11:43 AM
It's a wonder how these guys Make it to work and back each day. -G

Trump Budget Based on $2 Trillion Math Error

By Jonathan Chait (http://nymag.com/author/Jonathan%20Chait/)One of the ways Donald Trump’s budget claims to balance the budget over a decade, without cutting defense or retirement spending, is to assume a $2 trillion increase in revenue through economic growth. This is the magic of the still-to-be-designed Trump tax cuts. But wait — if you recall, the magic of the Trump tax cuts is also supposed to pay for (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/20/trumps-treasury-secretary-the-tax-cut-will-pay-for-itself/) the Trump tax cuts. So the $2 trillion is a double-counting error.

Trump has promised to enact “the biggest tax cut in history.” Trump’s administration has insisted, however, that the largest tax cut in history will not reduce revenue, because it will unleash growth. That is itself a wildly fanciful assumption. But that assumption has already become a baseline of the administration’s budget math. Trump’s budget assumes the historically yuge tax cuts will not lose any revenue for this reason — the added growth it will supposedly generate will make up for all the lost revenue.

But then the budget assumes $2 trillion in higher revenue from growth in order to achieve balance after ten years. So the $2 trillion from higher growth is a double-count. It pays for the Trump cuts, and then it pays again for balancing the budget. Or, alternatively, Trump could be assuming that his tax cuts will not only pay for themselves but generate $2 trillion in higher revenue. But Trump has not claimed his tax cuts will recoup more than 100 percent of their lost revenue, so it’s simply an embarrassing mistake.

It seems difficult to imagine how this administration could figure out how to design and pass a tax cut that could pay for itself when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush failed to come anywhere close to doing so. If there is a group of economic minds with the special genius to accomplish this historically unprecedented feat, it is probably not the fiscal minds who just made a $2 trillion basic arithmetic error.

TomF
05-23-2017, 01:00 PM
A two TRILLION dollar arithmetic error.

My, that inspires confidence.

Keith Wilson
05-23-2017, 01:15 PM
Well, either a $2,000,000,000,000.00 error, or just a complete disregard for the truth, even mathematical accuracy. They certainly don't seem to have any problem lying about other things. (Source (http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/05/23/is-president-trumps-budget-based-on-bad-math-or-is-he-a-habitual-liar/))


Is President Trump’s Budget Based on Bad Math or is He a Habitual Liar?
by Martin Longman

If I understand Jonathan Chait correctly, the Trump administration is acknowledging that their budget would result in two trillion fewer dollars being collected in revenues over the next decade. But they are insisting that two awesome things will happen. The first is that this actually won’t happen because greater economic growth will produce the revenue after all. And the second is that this greater economic growth will also allow them to balance the budget.

For Chait, this is a simple error of arithmetic. It’s an example of double counting. First they assume two trillion in extra revenue based on higher economic growth (to make up for lower tax rates/fees), and then they assume an extra two trillion a second time (to bring the budget into balance). We’re all familiar with the claim that huge tax cuts will pay for themselves. Reagan claimed that, but it didn’t happen. George W. Bush claimed that, and it didn’t happen. Chait doesn’t think it will happen this time either.

"It seems difficult to imagine how this administration could figure out how to design and pass a tax cut that could pay for itself when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush failed to come anywhere close to doing so. If there is a group of economic minds with the special genius to accomplish this historically unprecedented feat, it is probably not the fiscal minds who just made a $2 trillion basic arithmetic error."

It’s possible that this is exactly what Chait describes, but it’s also possible that it’s a lie made necessary by the fact that the Republican Party just spent the last decade obsessing about the deficit and now has a large caucus of genuine deficit hawks, plus an army of supporters whose tolerance for pivot-on-a-dime hypocrisy isn’t as high as the tax-cutters might wish. After all, once you’re committed to the lie that your tax cuts will unleash absurd levels of economic growth that no economist will predict, what’s one more lie about math?

"More than 35 American economists surveyed last week [by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business] disagree with a basic element of President Trump’s proposed tax plan: whether it will pay for itself. In an unusual display of unity, 100 percent of participating economists rejected the idea this week that Trump’s plans to drastically lower taxes on corporations, business, and individuals will create enough economic growth to offset the lost federal revenue and avoid adding to the national debt."

I’m just trying to imagine the Trump administration making a half-truthful claim that their budget won’t do a damn thing about the budget deficit and that it is only designed to be budget neutral. If Congress were to pass a balanced budget amendment, the Trump budget would violate the law, but they don’t want to admit that. So, it’s not enough to falsely claim that their budget won’t make the deficit problem worse; they have to make the further claim that their budget will actually balance. With this much incentive to lie, I am not ready to credit them with an honest error of addition.

But, as has become the pattern, I don’t think the lies will be effective:

"Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Tuesday that President Trump’s first budget was “dead on arrival” and wouldn’t make it through Congress. “It’s not going to happen,” said Graham, according to NBC News. “It would be a disaster.”

In itself, a rejection of Trump’s submitted budget wouldn’t be very big news. The Senate rejected Obama’s 2012 budget in a 99-0 vote and did the same to his 2015 budget by a 98-1 tally. The Republicans forced those votes to demonstrate that even Democrats weren’t on board with the president’s priorities. This time around, the Republicans are not prepared to make cuts to Medicaid, the State Department, and foreign aid that are as steep as what Trump proposes.

But, if it were ever to get down to it, they’d also object to its effect on the deficit. Considering just how dead on arrival this budget is, it’s a wonder that the administration feels the need to make such risible claims about it. But, then, they hardly hoard their credibility, do they?

David G
05-23-2017, 01:27 PM
And then... the front fell off.

oznabrag
05-23-2017, 01:32 PM
Left to their own devices, these Morons WILL NOT STOP until the USA is another third-world spithole.

Osborne Russell
05-23-2017, 01:50 PM
Is President Trump’s Budget Based on Bad Math or is He a Habitual Liar?

False dichotomy.

Keith Wilson
05-23-2017, 01:53 PM
I think the answer is 'yes'. But it was stated badly; what he meant was whether that particular howler was an unintentional mistake or a deliberate lie.

Canoeyawl
05-23-2017, 03:25 PM
Left to their own devices, these Morons WILL NOT STOP until the USA is another third-world spithole.

Of which they are paid handsomely to be in charge.

John of Phoenix
05-23-2017, 03:35 PM
Wow, two TRILLION!

reds continue their "War on Math".

skuthorp
05-23-2017, 03:41 PM
Maybe they use ''alternative math"?

And this it seems are what you will loose, amongst others as this list is from March.

The Environmental Protection Agency, the State Department and the Agriculture Department took the hardest hits. The proposal also eliminates funding for these 19 agencies:
African Development Foundation
Appalachian Regional Commission
Chemical Safety Board
Corporation for National and Community Service
Corporation for Public Broadcasting
Delta Regional Authority
Denali Commission
Institute of Museum and Library Services
Inter-American Foundation
US Trade and Development Agency
Legal Services Corporation
National Endowment for the Arts
National Endowment for the Humanities
Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation
Northern Border Regional Commission
Overseas Private Investment Corporation
US Institute of Peace
US Interagency Council on Homelessness
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

CWSmith
05-23-2017, 04:02 PM
Left to their own devices, these Morons WILL NOT STOP until the USA is another third-world spithole.

Remember, those places always have a small number of very rich people living off the poverty and sweat of the masses.

John of Phoenix
05-23-2017, 04:13 PM
Oh yeah, defunding the US Institute of Peace is gonna be a YUUGE windfall for the budget! Billions at least.

Keith Wilson
05-23-2017, 04:20 PM
If the only problem were the math error, that would be a gigantic improvement. The entire stinking pile of offal can be summarized as 'f*ck the poor'. (source for the following (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/22/15676490/trump-budget-2018-explained))


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAeYAZtWAAAXvoB.jpg

The numbers put out by Trump’s Office of Management and Budget are designed to balance within 10 years; that is, the budget is supposed to enact spending cuts deep enough to wipe out the annual budget deficit by 2027, year 10 of its operation.

The cuts include:

All $880 billion in Medicaid cuts included in the Republican health plan that has passed the House, plus $610 billion in additional cuts due to adopting an even stingier formula for increasing Medicaid funding year over year. This amounts to a total cut to Medicaid of over 47 percent.

$191 billion in cuts from Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps, over 10 years. That's about a 25 percent cut. The administration claims it will achieve this by adding new work requirements, but it would effectively require kicking many people off the program or dramatically cutting benefit amounts.

$40.4 billion in cuts to the earned income tax credit and child tax credit over 10 years, programs that, along with SNAP, make up much of the US's safety net for poor people. Trump would require parents receiving benefits to submit a Social Security number to weed out unauthorized immigrants — even those whose children are US citizens.

$21.6 billion in cuts to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or welfare, over 10 years. That’s a nearly 13 percent cut to the program, which has already been cut dramatically since the 1990s.

Huge cuts to most federal agencies: a 31.4 percent cut to the Environmental Protection Agency budget, 29.1 percent cut to the State Department, 20.5 percent to Agriculture, 19.8 percent to Labor, 16.2 percent to Health and Human Services, 15.8 percent to Commerce, 13.2 percent to Housing and Urban Development, 12.7 percent to Transportation, and 10.9 percent to Interior.

The plan raises no money through tax increases. It assumes that Trump’s proposed tax reform package passes, and is revenue-neutral, meaning it will neither increase nor decrease the deficit. The plan also assumes that growth will be 3 percent, not 1.9 percent, which increases tax receipts and helps pay for the whole package.

The budget also includes several bits of additional spending:

A 4.6 percent increase in defense spending ($25.4 billion more a year)
A 6.8 percent increase in funding for the Department of Homeland Security, including $2.6 billion in new border security funding to help pay for a border wall
A 5.8 percent increase for the Department of Veterans Affairs

Corvida
05-23-2017, 06:24 PM
Left to their own devices, these Morons WILL NOT STOP until the USA is another third-world spithole.

That's not a problem in their eyes, that's the advertised goal. As far as the current administration is concerned, Russia and Saudi Arabia are better forms of government than what the US has now.

oznabrag
05-23-2017, 07:58 PM
Very telling that bobbys and his merry [redacted] are nowhere to be seen.

'Oooops! My bad!' ain't gonna get it this time, boys.

Canoeyawl
05-23-2017, 08:12 PM
Who?

David G
05-24-2017, 09:38 AM
And $2trillion might be very conservative -- https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/trumps-budget-dynamic-scoring/527901/

This budget is simply another example of the asinine, inept, ahistorical, ignorant, traitorous, greedy, rush toward feeding the rich and 'stuffing' the poor that seems to be the general tenor of the D.Tramp administration.

Arizona Bay
05-24-2017, 10:06 AM
You don't think they'd be trying to intentionally fool us with 'conceptual accounting' do ya? :D

David G
05-24-2017, 10:15 AM
You don't think they'd be trying to intentionally fool us with 'conceptual accounting' do ya? :D

I find it ironic that - after fighting so hard for 'dynamic scoring' to be used as a tool... the first Republican budget chooses not to use it, as it would expose the shoddiness... nay, egregious absurdity... of their calculations.

Vince Brennan
05-24-2017, 10:52 AM
Not even Grebe is around to point out that if we didn't rely on Dem or Repub lies so consistently, he and Ayn could straighten things out in a heartbeat. There are some quagmires which- though they seemingly BEG for drainage - continue to fascinate and enmesh their beholders into a fixed state of immobility or an inability to reason succinctly.

Keith Wilson
05-25-2017, 08:30 AM
1890s, I think. None of those pesky environmental laws, labor laws, safety regulations, none of that crap. A good honest capitalist could sell anything he wanted as 'sausage', and build that lead smelter right next to the school. Strike? Call in the National Guard and shoot 'em. Make America Great Again!

Gerarddm
05-25-2017, 08:36 AM
Looks like his budget people failed their Math SATs.

And still the Stumps won't care. But if any of this gets enacted they are finally going to be unhappy.

" It's the economy, stupid. "

Ian McColgin
05-25-2017, 09:11 AM
Used to be when you went to hire an accountant you might ask, "How much is 2 +2 ?"

And you hire the one who says, "How much do you need?"

Now Trumpkins hire by asking, "How much is 2 + 2 ?". They pick the guy who says, "Who cares?"

Norman Bernstein
05-25-2017, 09:57 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=127&v=UZBCaxyUv3g

David G
05-25-2017, 01:34 PM
Budget Director testifies before the Senate. Mulvaney is prabably the most competent of the Trump shills I've heard so far. But he spends his time on spin, because the straight answers are damning...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/answer-question-bernie-sanders-clashes-trump-budget-chief-hearing-150831763.html