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Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 05:49 AM
On the 8th of June.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

birlinn
04-18-2017, 05:53 AM
Could be interesting!

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 06:04 AM
Could be interesting!

I have no hopes of Suffolk Coastal, where we have a fat lying toad of a Tory MP who is close to the repulsive May, but Argyll and Bute will be voting Remain no matter what!

Ian McColgin
04-18-2017, 06:10 AM
Faster than impeachment. Get thinking people to the polls.

It will be interesting to see if public remorse for falling for lies the last time will be stronger than May's new lies this time.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 06:13 AM
She's going now because she has been warned that public support for Brexit will drop as the process continues, and Labour are in complete disarray.

skuthorp
04-18-2017, 06:16 AM
The usual grab for power, so how many will bother to vote do you reckon?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 06:21 AM
I think there could be a strong turnout.

skuthorp
04-18-2017, 06:23 AM
So, Labour is in a mess, the Libs? The Nationalist fringe?
Not much of a choice there, status quo or nothing.

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
04-18-2017, 06:29 AM
The Liberals performed a ritual self disembowling in 2010 and are not likely to recover soon.

The Scot Nats however.. This could be interesting.

skuthorp
04-18-2017, 06:39 AM
Representative government/democracy seems not to be served well by it's proponents anywhere at present.

heimfried
04-18-2017, 06:46 AM
The news is just a few days old, that Labour in polls is 21 points behind the tories and that even a majority of labour voters are thinking, Mr. Corbyn would not be the right PM.
And the days are coming in which more and more voters will tend to daubt, if the brexit decision was wise.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 06:50 AM
The news is just a few days old, that Labour in polls is 21 points behind the tories and that even a majority of labour voters are thinking, Mr. Corbyn would not be the right PM.
And the days are coming in which more and more voters will tend to daubt, if the brexit decision was wise.

You got it.

Peerie Maa
04-18-2017, 07:01 AM
The news is just a few days old, that Labour in polls is 21 points behind the tories and that even a majority of labour voters are thinking, Mr. Corbyn would not be the right PM.
And the days are coming in which more and more voters will tend to daubt, if the brexit decision was wise.

Yep, Jeremy Corbyn, Brexit, and BoatyMcBoatface. See a pattern here?

SMARTINSEN
04-18-2017, 08:13 AM
Representative government/democracy seems not to be served well by it's proponents anywhere at present.

Quoted for truth. Sad.


As for the OP, from this side of the pond, it looks like Little England it will be.

genglandoh
04-18-2017, 08:22 AM
I look like she wants to take advantage of the growing support for Brexit to increase her parties position in parliament.
And we were told that support for Brexit would drop.

Title: UK Prime Minister Theresa May to seek early election
British Prime Minister Theresa May has stunned the UK political world by calling for an early general election, seeking a stronger mandate in talks over leaving the European Union.
In an unexpected statement at Downing Street, May said she was seeking a vote on June 8, less than halfway through the government's five-year term.
May, who commands only a slim majority in parliament's lower House of Commons, said that a new mandate would strengthen her hand in negotiations in Brexit talks.
Link: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/791117/European-Commission-warns-Hungary-Poland-refugees-EU-migrant-policy-legal-action

Title: Support for Theresa May's handling of Brexit talks hits a five-month high, with 55 per cent of UK population backing her
Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/15/support-brexit-hits-five-month-high-55-per-cent-uk-population/

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 09:17 AM
Very iffy poll, that one.

The general assumption is that support will drop as the negotiations start, so she needs to "go to the country" now, whilst Labour is in disarray due to the Trotskyite putsch and before the Libdems can organise to the fullest extent.

genglandoh
04-18-2017, 09:20 AM
Very iffy poll, that one.

The general assumption is that support will drop as the negotiations start, so she needs to "go to the country" now, whilst Labour is in disarray due to the Trotskyite putsch and before the Libdems can organise to the fullest extent.

Do you think her party will win more seats in the election?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-18-2017, 09:38 AM
Do you think her party will win more seats in the election?

Yes, I do.

Her majority is very slender and she is having to negotiate within the party to get what she wants.

I think a big factor with her is the opportunity to destroy UKIP once and for all.

I foresee Labour losing seats, the Scottish National Party retaining their strong position in Scotland and the Liberal Democrats regaining a number of seats from the Tories.

One thing which has not been much discussed is what will happen in Northern Ireland. That could be very interesting, in the Chinese sense of that word.

isla
04-18-2017, 09:58 AM
In Scotland the SNP are not happy about May calling the election. The concern being that if they do worse than they did in 2015, when they won 56 out of 59 Scottish seats, it could affect their chances of a second independence referendum.

Two Labour MPs, Alan Johnson and Tom Blenkinsop, have announced they will not run for re-election. Tom Blenkinsop, MP for Middlesborough South and East ‎only has a 2,248 majority, so that seat may well fall to the Tories this time around.

There are also rumours that other Labour MPs may not stand, and Conservative MP Simon Burns has said he will not stand.

NickW
04-18-2017, 01:13 PM
Interesting.

Under the Fixed Terms (Parliament) Act, a General Election can only be called before it's due date:-


Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011#cite_note-2)


If the House of Commons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom) resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom)", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom)". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".

In either of these two cases, the Monarch (on the recommendation of the prime minister) appoints the date of the new election by proclamation. Parliament is then dissolved 25 working days before that date.



The Tories have a simple majority in the Commons and as such will defeat a vote of no confidence.

So, a deal must have been made between May and Corbyn to ensure that 450 MPs vote for an early election.

May has potentially a lot to gain from it but what does Corbyn get apart from a massive defeat? Is he hoping that enough of his Blairite foes will get the chop from the electorate? Has he had enough and wants to retire but with honour?

You can be sure, something fishy is going on in the Westminster village!

Nick

John Meachen
04-18-2017, 04:39 PM
Yep, Jeremy Corbyn, Brexit, and BoatyMcBoatface. See a pattern here?

With that thought in mind I see the late Lord Sutch sitting on a cloud muttering "I could have been a contender.".I also think Andrew is correct to describe elements of the process as interesting in the Chinese sense.I share that view and suspect that a few luminaries of the Westminster village will be clearing their offices on June 9th.

Peerie Maa
04-18-2017, 04:52 PM
Interesting.

Under the Fixed Terms (Parliament) Act, a General Election can only be called before it's due date:-



The Tories have a simple majority in the Commons and as such will defeat a vote of no confidence.

So, a deal must have been made between May and Corbyn to ensure that 450 MPs vote for an early election.

May has potentially a lot to gain from it but what does Corbyn get apart from a massive defeat? Is he hoping that enough of his Blairite foes will get the chop from the electorate? Has he had enough and wants to retire but with honour?

You can be sure, something fishy is going on in the Westminster village!

Nick

There is another alternative. Corbyn is delusional.

Gerarddm
04-18-2017, 04:52 PM
From here it seems like a good tactical move on her part. But perhaps she will wind up being as surprised as Cameron was. Can Labour dump Corbyn before hand?

skuthorp
04-18-2017, 04:56 PM
I would say labour has no chance, but Trump won against the polls.........
Don't expect that though.

heimfried
04-19-2017, 09:09 AM
Commons voted "yes", general election will come.

TomF
04-19-2017, 09:15 AM
How can this be spun together such that Brexit is avoided?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-19-2017, 09:28 AM
How can this be spun together such that Brexit is avoided?

I doubt if that will be possible. Labour are in the grip of the "Momentum group", who are Trotskyite "entryists" led by MacDonald, the eminence grise of Corbyn, who has voted in favour of the snap election and who required his party MPs to vote for Brexit. They are happy to vote with the Tories, presumably because abusing the working class brings the day of the revolution closer, or some such twaddle, but they hate and fear the LibDems, so there is no chance of a coalition.

Scotland will stay SNP.

I think the LibDems will regain some seats from the Tories but not enough and the Tories will gain some Labour seats and UKIP will be crushed.

In more detail:

I will start by saying where I stand; as an undergraduate I canvassed for Dick Taverne at Lincoln; I have been "politically active" since then, as a member of the Labour Party, then a founding member of the SDP and in due course a LibDem following the merger of the SDP and the Liberals. The common thread is that I am very strongly "pro-European Union" and mildly left-liberal.

I do not believe in the italicised part of "from each according to their ability, to each according to their needs, by means of the common ownership of the means of production distribution and exchange", but as you can see I can still quote Clause Four of the old Labour Party Constitution.(I can also sing The Red Flag, unlike some younger Labour MPs!)

I do believe in the part that is not in italics, as of course do all Christians and all right thinking people. I believe that the State does have a role in the economy and I favour the "mixed" economy.

I am perfectly comfortable with the idea of a United States of Europe, provided that it is democratic and liberal.Education, health, infrastructure, the environment, food quality, public libraries and fundamental research are amongst the things I take to be parts of the job of the Government along with the the big items like defence, laura norder and social security, and I believe that the Government must also ensure that the nation are decently housed and given equal access to free public services including such things as libraries and a reasonable level of public transport.

My idea of a better society than we have in Britain now would look pretty Scandinavian or Japanese - good public services, free at the point of delivery, financed by relatively high and very strongly progressive taxation, with a small Gini coefficient, and a strong sense of civic duty. I grew up in the Middle East and East Africa and as an adult I have lived for several years in Hong Kong, the Philippines and China.

Now, you know where I stand and I have decades of doorstepping, driving elderly and infirm voters to the polls, telling, running committee rooms on election day, and so on.

I think...

1. That May has concluded that life is going to become harder for her as the negotiations start to go badly, as the economy starts to fail, and the Right wing of her party - John Major's "bastards" will make life increasingly unpleasant for her.

2. That she thinks that had better hit Labour now, whilst they are in the midst of the mess caused by the Momentum attempt to take over the Labour party, and not later when they may ave rebuilt.

3. That the Lib Dems are recovering and may be a threat to the Conservatives, particularly in the seats that the Lib Dems held before the last election. Richmond is the classic case.

4. That May regards Scotland as a lost cause, and is unconcerned about Northern Ireland.

5. Importantly, that May is very concerned about UKIP and is determined to stamp out UKIP, seeing it as an existential threat to the Conservative Party.

6. I do not think that UKIP will take seats from Labour. If UKIP could not take Stoke on Trent, UKIP cannot take any other Labour seat. UKIP cannot take Tory seats because the Tories are wearing UKIP's clothes.

7. This being so, UKIP will be crushed between the upper and the nether millstone and will cease to be a political force.

8. I cannot foresee what will happen in the Labour Party. Labour supporters are always very hostile to the LibDems - have been for ever - and this will make it difficult for Labour members to move to the welcoming embrace of the LibDems as Momentum tightens its grip. I may be wrong here, but I suspect that Labour cannot now throw off Momentum in the way that it threw off Militant Tendency under Kinnock.

9. The most likely outcome will be that the Tories will lose some seats to the Libdems but will take more seats from Labour.

10 May has called the election on Brexit but Labour won't fight on Brexit and neither will the SNP or the Norn Iron parties. The Tories may be vulnerable on the increase in inequality.

Hwyl
04-19-2017, 09:36 AM
Your hope runs eternal. The Lib Dems are languishing in UKIP country, let's hope they both become irrelevant.

TomF
04-19-2017, 09:37 AM
That puts much detail to what I'd suspected, ACB. Thanks.

What continues to trouble me is that May herself campaigned against Brexit during the referendum, and it is rather unfathomable to me that her opinion of the risk of damage to the UK has shifted. I had wondered if in some measure she was looking for a way to claim that the British people had reversed that slight referendum decision, while retaining a mechanism for the Tories to hold power perhaps in coalition in a minority Parliament.

I agree that one objective is likely to crush UKIP, at which they'll probably succeed.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-19-2017, 09:47 AM
Your hope runs eternal. The Lib Dems are languishing in UKIP country, let's hope they both become irrelevant.

UKIP country,Gareth?

Where is that place?

There is no place for UKIP. Not even Clacton-on-Sea.

But indeed the Lib Dems are a threat to the Tories mainly in the wealthier suburbs of London, and in other rather pleasant places.

beernd
04-19-2017, 09:50 AM
I think there could be a strong turnout.

What about the LibDems, could they win?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-19-2017, 09:53 AM
That puts much detail to what I'd suspected, ACB. Thanks.

What continues to trouble me is that May herself campaigned against Brexit during the referendum, and it is rather unfathomable to me that her opinion of the risk of damage to the UK has shifted. I had wondered if in some measure she was looking for a way to claim that the British people had reversed that slight referendum decision, while retaining a mechanism for the Tories to hold power perhaps in coalition in a minority Parliament.

I agree that one objective is likely to crush UKIP, at which they'll probably succeed.

I think you need to meet some English Tories on their home ground to understand May and her appeal to her Party.

She does not understand, and does not care about, the risk to the UK. She cares about her Party.

Above all, the Tories are concerned to survive as a Party, They have been in business since 1689, the longest surviving major political party anywhere. They survived the Great Reform Bill, they survived the repeal of the Corn Laws, they survived the Attlee Government of 1945-51.

The Conservatives have always been split on the EU; it is the most dangerous issue for them as a party. By taking them into the Leave camp and stealing UKIP's clothes, May has ensured the survival of the Tory Party.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-19-2017, 09:56 AM
What about the LibDems, could they win?

No, we cannot.

We can get a good share of the vote, but we will only get a handful of seats. We might get 30. Our political map is not as gerrymandered as the USA is, but there are places where only Labour will win, where only a Tory will win, and where only the SNP will win.

TomF
04-19-2017, 09:57 AM
Bloody hell. I'd hoped that the "party first" disease was less virulent on your side of the Atlantic.

Peerie Maa
04-19-2017, 11:56 AM
Bloody hell. I'd hoped that the "party first" disease was less virulent on your side of the Atlantic.

No, our Tories are a pale imitation of your more moderate Repubs. Blinded by dogma, the party of property ownership, and tending towards being Reganite.

All though they tend to be more pragmatic, many of the still worship the Milk Snatcher, who was so far up Reagan that only her heels were visible, and who proclaimed "there is no such thing as society".

Rum_Pirate
04-19-2017, 12:07 PM
No, our Tories are a pale imitation of your more moderate Repubs. Blinded by dogma, the party of property ownership, and tending towards being Reganite.

All though they tend to be more pragmatic, many of the still worship the Milk Snatcher, who was so far up Reagan that only her heels were visible, and who proclaimed "there is no such thing as society".

Consider it in context.

Prime minister Margaret Thatcher, talking to
Women's Own magazine, October 31 1987

"I think we've been through a period where too many people have been given to understand that if they have a problem, it's the government's job to cope with it. 'I have a problem, I'll get a grant.' 'I'm homeless, the government must house me.' They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour. People have got the entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations. There's no such thing as entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation."

Peerie Maa
04-19-2017, 01:10 PM
So? She could not give a toss about any one outside her immediate circle "look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour." She was happy to destroy whole communities for political gain, where as society is about humanity working together for the benefit of all.

NickW
04-19-2017, 02:22 PM
Let's see what William Hill says
UK General Election Betting - All Markets Bet until : 08 Jun -22:00 UK http://whdn.williamhill.com/core/ob/static/cust/images/en/myMarkets.png My Markets (0) All Markets (2)

Order by:







General Election Result




Conservative Majority 1/6





No Overall Majority 5/1





Labour Majority 16/1





Liberal Democrat Majority 25/1





UKIP Majority 100/1






General Election to take place on 8th June 2017







Most Seats in General Election




Conservative 1/14





Labour 10/1



Liberal Democrat 16/1







UKIP 66/1





Greens 200/1










Umm. No odds given for a coalition?

So, what odds would you give for a Lab/Lib Dem/SNP/Green and any others coalition formed purely to reverse Brexit without the need for a second referendum?

Nick

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-19-2017, 04:06 PM
It's jolly difficult to foresee at this point.

Not least because in this day and age we tend to stick in our "silos".

I seem to know quite a bit about what people who want Britain to stay in the EU think.

I haven't a clue what other sorts of people think.

Peerie Maa
04-21-2017, 04:33 AM
Interesting Op Ed in the Times, being a Tory broad sheet and all that.

The prime minister’s opening remarks were a study in needless dishonesty. With a large majority in parliament for her Article 50 process it was bizarre to pretend that her plans are being thwarted. She should leave that sort of unworthy stupidity to the Daily Mail which is practised in it. It is entirely reasonable for a new prime minister to want her own mandate. She should say that and stick to it. No television debate, no questions at stage-managed public appearances. So far she has been fragile, not entirely candid and scared of a conversation.

The abject weakness of the Labour Party means that this election will produce the largest majority for an empty political project in British electoral history. Here is another rule of politics which pertains to Mrs May: if more grammar schools is the way you signal your direction then the direction you are heading in is nowhere. But going nowhere is preferable to going off a cliff, although at least if Mr Corbyn runs an authentic left-wing shouty campaign the discredit will be all his. The evidence suggests that the patience of Labour members is running out. He will not survive a big defeat. A moment will come, soon, when the Labour Party could salvage itself as a viable political organisation.
There is a shaft of optimism, strange to say. It is conceivable, when the economy turns and when leaving the EU proves to be dull and difficult and we have forgotten quite what the point was, that government will be caught up in daily stories of small events going awry. The post-election cabinet, with the best people leaving parliament or in exile, will be of very poor quality and the government will soon look empty of purpose.

from https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/has-theresa-may-saved-the-labour-party-j57wth57b?CMP=TNLEmail_118918_1747298

skaraborgcraft
04-21-2017, 06:42 AM
I get the impression there is a distinct lack of foresight with many of those, once elected. How far back can the "blame-game" go to discredit the other side of the bench? Just how much air time Corbyn will get in relation to May on the BBC will be interesting, if he was deemed to not be a threat, one wonders why the excess of media hate once he took lead of Labour. She might be in for another shock......not many thought Brexit would happen.....

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-21-2017, 08:04 AM
Interesting Op Ed in the Times, being a Tory broad sheet and all that.

The prime ministerís opening remarks were a study in needless dishonesty. With a large majority in parliament for her Article 50 process it was bizarre to pretend that her plans are being thwarted. She should leave that sort of unworthy stupidity to the Daily Mail which is practised in it. It is entirely reasonable for a new prime minister to want her own mandate. She should say that and stick to it. No television debate, no questions at stage-managed public appearances. So far she has been fragile, not entirely candid and scared of a conversation.



The abject weakness of the Labour Party means that this election will produce the largest majority for an empty political project in British electoral history. Here is another rule of politics which pertains to Mrs May: if more grammar schools is the way you signal your direction then the direction you are heading in is nowhere. But going nowhere is preferable to going off a cliff, although at least if Mr Corbyn runs an authentic left-wing shouty campaign the discredit will be all his. The evidence suggests that the patience of Labour members is running out. He will not survive a big defeat. A moment will come, soon, when the Labour Party could salvage itself as a viable political organisation.
There is a shaft of optimism, strange to say. It is conceivable, when the economy turns and when leaving the EU proves to be dull and difficult and we have forgotten quite what the point was, that government will be caught up in daily stories of small events going awry. The post-election cabinet, with the best people leaving parliament or in exile, will be of very poor quality and the government will soon look empty of purpose.




from https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/has-theresa-may-saved-the-labour-party-j57wth57b?CMP=TNLEmail_118918_1747298

Very interesting, and if I were Theresa May, reading that in Murdoch's flagship newspaper, I would be worried.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
04-22-2017, 02:56 PM
Here is a really good article in the Financial Times - the last real newspaper left in Britain, but expensive and usually behind a paywall. This is free, though only if you go to it on Facebook, which is a bit weird

https://www.ft.com/content/d8bbdb92-2616-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

Peerie Maa
04-22-2017, 05:39 PM
Took a lot of column inches to say two sentences, and not very contentious sentences at that.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-11-2017, 04:27 AM
The Labour Party's Manifesto has been leaked to the Press.

It doesn't contain anything very remarkable, but the fact of its leaking has led to mockery.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-11-2017, 04:30 AM
Perhaps more interesting was the BBC's little game of "focus group" in Leeds this morning.

Leeds is a University city with a big manufacturing base and a big banking/financial services industry. As a city, it voted Remain, but Yorkshire as a whole voted Leave.

The focus group selected by a polling firm never really got beyond "Brexit will send the immigrants home".

Populism is rife, and is nasty,

PeterSibley
05-11-2017, 05:13 AM
Brexit will also send all those Brits living in Europe, home to the UK and likely at a huge loss as they have to sell up in a buyers market.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-11-2017, 06:10 AM
I think that a mass migration across the Channel on the lines of the Partition of India is ultimately unlikely, but to the extent that it does take place it is "bad news" for the UK economy as most of the returnees are likely to be elderly and most of the departees are likely to be young and employed.

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
05-11-2017, 07:24 AM
I know several young well qualified techies who - having Irish or German grandparents - are now chasing EU capable passports.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-12-2017, 05:16 AM
The BBC have been looking around the town that I went to school in.

Colchester has the largest percentage of new voters, a 9% increase in a year, from 122,000 to 133,775

It voted Leave in the referendum, 53.6% to 46.4%, on a turn out of 75%, and threw out its long serving LibDem MP, Bob Russell, in the 2015 general election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-39846425

NickW
05-19-2017, 03:20 PM
The cover of this week's Private Eye seems to sum the progress of the various campaigns fairly well.

Nick

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DABTACCXsAAuepk.jpg:small

skuthorp
05-19-2017, 03:29 PM
"There's no such thing as entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation."'

Sounds rather Thatcherite to me………..