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Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 06:48 PM
Just reported on NBC news.

Among all white voters Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by +15 points. Less well than Mitt Romney in 2012 who led his Democratic opponent by +20 points.

Among non-college educated white voters Trump is leading Clinton by +30 points. Romney led his opponent in 2012 by +25 votes.

The stunner: among college-educated white voters Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by +10 points. Mitt Romney in 2012 led his opponent among this voting group by +14 points. That is a 24 point swing in the favor of the Democratic candidate.

What does that mean? States with big suburban populations of college-educated whites (Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, etc.) could end up bluer than expected just a couple of days ago.

David G
11-07-2016, 07:11 PM
Their Map

274 - Clinton
94 - T'up
170 - Trump

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:15 PM
Latinos have reportedly been voting in unprecedented numbers in early voting across the map.

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:17 PM
So: presume that Trump loses badly among college-educated whites, women over-all, latinos, African Americans, and millennials. All safe assumptions.

Where does he find enough votes to counter-act that?

I heard one pundit opine that Trump is shooting himself in the foot by insisting late in the game that the election is rigged against him. He argued that this can only discourage Trumpistas from standing in long lines to vote for him, given that the candidate himself claims the outcome is pre-ordained against him.
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C. Ross
11-07-2016, 07:24 PM
Where does he find enough votes to counter-act that?.

Massive turnout by his base. People who usually don't vote and whose behavior is hard to predict. The polls say Trump has a YUUGE enthusiasm lead. That's the doomsday scenario from my perspective.

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:27 PM
Is "the base" really that large?

I think not. And I'm willing to accept a small wager with anyone asserting otherwise. ;)

CWSmith
11-07-2016, 07:29 PM
Among all white voters Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by +15 points. Less well than Mitt Romney in 2012 who led his Democratic opponent by +20 points.

What is wrong with my race!!!

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:30 PM
The demographic tide is turning against them and it frightens them.

Which is why we need leaders who appeal to our better nature rather than to fear.

I am not afraid because I have spent 40 years working in a culturally diverse industry.

But many white Americans still do not rub shoulders regularly with non-white Americans. The unknown is often scary. I get that.

Politicians who play on that fear are despicable. And legion in the 21st century USA.
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Upshur
11-07-2016, 07:32 PM
you may be right. but i wouldn’t bet on it.So far , everyone i know who is a Trump voter is friends with someone who is going to cancel out their vote.

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:38 PM
Michigan will be close. And Hillary Clinton will win.

David G
11-07-2016, 07:40 PM
The demographic tide is turning against them and it frightens them.

Which is why we need leaders who appeal to our better nature rather than to fear.

I am not afraid because I have spent 40 years working in a culturally diverse industry.

But many white Americans still do not rub shoulders with non-white Americans. The unknown is often scary. I get that.

It's not just that. It's also that the oligarchs are beginning to treat this formerly privileged demographic the way we have treated minorities in the past. And they're smart enough to be aware of it, but not savvy enough to recognize the true pattern in play. Instead they grasp onto easy explanations and false narratives that serve only to further engorge the coffers of the wealthy, funnel more power to the corporations, and increase their alienation from the 'others' who could be their natural allies. Therefore they act, and vote, against their own - and the country's - best interests.

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:45 PM
I work in the auto industry with a lot of blue-collar GOP supporters.

Let me tell you, these are not the sharpest tools in the shed. EXTREMELY low information voters.

I take comfort in the knowledge that only a small percentage of them actually vote.

Chris Coose
11-07-2016, 07:48 PM
I'm feeling so good tonight I'm gonna grab my pussy.

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 07:49 PM
LOL!

I take it she is also happy on election eve?

Glen Longino
11-07-2016, 07:56 PM
:DSpew....dammit, Coose!:D

S.V. Airlie
11-07-2016, 08:04 PM
I work in the auto industry with a lot of blue-collar GOP supporters.

Let me tell you, these are not the sharpest tools in the shed. EXTREMELY low information voters.

I take comfort in the knowledge that only a small percentage of them actually vote.I have a cleaning lady, a republican, clean my house once a month. Little stuff! Spends about two hours and does what I can't. I pay her by the hour and she charges squat! I've told her thousands of times she's charging me far less than she usually asks for and she says forget it! I'm surrounded by republicans, I mean REPUBLICANS, dumb Republicans, really ignorant ones in fact! My time talking politics with you, she continues, is a breath of fresh air because her family is way too set in their ways. She finished by saying what I pay her far exceeds what she wants under normal circumstances with other patrons. She charges $10.00/hour and charges my sister $17.00.

Tom Montgomery
11-07-2016, 08:15 PM
My 86-year-old mother recently employed a young woman who works for $10.00/hr approx 20 hrs/wk on the condition that she be paid in cash. This young woman helps my mother bathe and does light housework and chores.

When I visited my mother 3 weeks ago this young woman was present when my mother went off on a small rant against Donald Trump. The young woman did not reply but looked uncomfortable. In private I told my mother she needs to eliminate politics from her conversation around this young woman if she wants to keep her services.

The young woman later told me she took no offense because, in her experience, the elderly often offer unsolicited opinion. Whew!

S.V. Airlie
11-07-2016, 09:03 PM
Mine is amazing in that department. All she hears is TRUMP,TRUMP, TRUMP in her house! And the garbage they believe is unreal! As I said, she's only here for a few hours a month. I think she likes coming here! I do most of the cleaning anyway when my health allows me to. Seriously, all she does is clean the bathroom and change me sheets with clean ones I have folded already!

Rich Jones
11-07-2016, 10:41 PM
I'm feeling so good tonight I'm gonna grab my pussy.
Leave the poor cat alone!!:D