PDA

View Full Version : Trump and the white voter



David G
10-05-2016, 11:43 AM
From 538. He's doing worse among white voters overall... when he really needed to do better to win, and not just with the less-educated --



Donald Trumpís strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-winning-enough-white-voters/) in order to compensate for the GOPís shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/). And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isnít working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trumpís margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began.

Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-winning-enough-white-voters/). That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/) that 2012ís. And to win ó even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago ó Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-winning-enough-white-voters/).

But Trump isnít even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast#fn-1) He doesnít reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Keith Wilson
10-05-2016, 11:48 AM
Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points . . . Looking at this, one might be tempted by silly theories of white racial inferiority. OTOH the difference between Romney and Trump is encouraging.

David G
10-06-2016, 10:41 AM
Yeah... I'm liking that number. But I'm also thinking that Trump has the potential to generate the largest number (ever?) of 'stealth' voters. People who are too embarrassed to tell pollsters that they'll actually be voting for this miserable creature... but do so on voting day.

Gerarddm
10-06-2016, 10:44 AM
^ This.

Tom Wilkinson
10-06-2016, 10:44 AM
Yeah... I'm liking that number. But I'm also thinking that Trump has the potential to generate the largest number (ever?) of 'stealth' voters. People who are too embarrassed to tell pollsters that they'll actually be voting for this miserable creature... but do so on voting day.
Exactly. The number of people I know that will vote for him is astonishingly high. I wouldn't vote for him if he was the only candidate, but people hate Hillary, whether she deserves it or not.

Bernie would have sailed in against trump.

ron ll
10-06-2016, 10:44 AM
Yeah... I'm liking that number. But I'm also thinking that Trump has the potential to generate the largest number (ever?) of 'stealth' voters. People who are too embarrassed to tell pollsters that they'll actually be voting for this miserable creature... but do so on voting day.

But there might be just as many opposites; people who love to tell you they are voting for Trump just to get in your face, but won't really let themselves be that stupid in the voting booth.

Willin'
10-06-2016, 10:49 AM
Not to mention those that back Trump in the polls to bolster his numbers and boost his confidence, then vote for the opposition. Not that I would ever do anything so deplorable.

David G
10-06-2016, 10:50 AM
But there might be just as many opposites; people who love to tell you they are voting for Trump just to get in your face, but won't really let themselves be that stupid in the voting booth.

Theoretically... sure. My sense? The numbers won't be anywhere close to offsetting.

Norman Bernstein
10-06-2016, 10:56 AM
The pundits were talking about this last night... saying that Trump's 'solid 40%' is softening, when he needs to not only hold that line, but add to it.... and white women are bailing on him.

leikec
10-06-2016, 11:03 AM
I'm one of those stupid, prediction-making people :D who has been saying all along that Trump would lose big. I really believe he's going to have trouble reaching 50 million votes.

Jeff C

ron ll
10-06-2016, 11:06 AM
I'm one of those stupid, prediction-making people :D who has been saying all along that Trump would lose big. I really believe he's going to have trouble reaching 50 million votes.

Jeff C

You better be rounding up as many singing fat ladies as you can find.

Keith Wilson
10-06-2016, 11:09 AM
But there might be just as many opposites; people who love to tell you they are voting for Trump just to get in your face, but won't really let themselves be that stupid in the voting booth.And even more women who say to their husbands, 'Yes dear, of course I'm voting for him.' but do something quite different in the privacy of the voting booth.

WoodyHuscarl
10-06-2016, 11:22 AM
I don't even ask my wife about the candidates for whom she voted. None of my business.

john welsford
10-06-2016, 03:34 PM
I suspect that this election may see a very low voter turnout.

John Welsford, watching from outside.

leikec
10-06-2016, 04:53 PM
I suspect that this election may see a very low voter turnout.

John Welsford, watching from outside.

Maybe not, it's a strange year. Both major party candidates have very high negatives within their own electorate, but polling has shown that overall interest in the presidential race is very high, running even with the 2008 election.

Jeff C

Canoeyawl
10-06-2016, 06:27 PM
Exactly. The number of people I know that will vote for him is astonishingly high. I wouldn't vote for him if he was the only candidate, but people hate Hillary, whether she deserves it or not.



People hate Gravity too!
I think that is stupidity.