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genglandoh
05-31-2016, 11:09 PM
I think if
1. Sanders wins California
2. Hillary keeps dropping in the polls against Trump

Some super delegates will start to switch to Sanders.

Title: Superdelegates WILL Switch To Bernie. Here’s Why
Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-kall/superdelegates-will-switc_b_10063920.html

Just to be clear I do not think the KKK will switch their endorsement from Hillary to Sanders.

Reynard38
06-01-2016, 05:49 AM
If Sanders was to take CA by a good margin it's possible. Then again those SD's might be paid to vote a certain way, and folks do vote their wallet.

genglandoh
06-01-2016, 08:16 AM
If Sanders was to take CA by a good margin it's possible. Then again those SD's might be paid to vote a certain way, and folks do vote their wallet.

I am sure many Super Delegates have benefited from the Clinton s over the years.
But as they watch the Clinton s and the Dem party head for a disaster in the general election some will switch to Sanders in a desperate hope of saving themselves.

Norman Bernstein
06-01-2016, 08:20 AM
But as they watch the Clinton s and the Dem party head for a disaster in the general election...

Really? Your crystal ball told you that?

genglandoh
06-01-2016, 08:40 AM
Really? Your crystal ball told you that?

It is easy to see if you open your eyes.

Here are some threads you can read to get up to speed.

1. The Dems policies are total failures, their response is not to fix them but instead to divide the country and this will cost them votes in 2016
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthread.php?196761-The-Dems-are-heading-to-a-major-defeat-in-2016&highlight=

2. Hillary is running a very poor campaign
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthread.php?194008-Do-you-think-Hillary%92s-Campaign-will-implode

3. The Dems are not unifying behind Hillary
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthread.php?206905-Do-you-think-the-Dems-will-unity-behind-Hillary-before-the-convention&highlight=

4. Harry Reid is threatening Hillary over her VP pick
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthread.php?207281-Harry-Reid-is-threatening-Hillary-over-her-VP-pick&highlight=

5. The DNC Chair in under attack from many in the party
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthread.php?207309-Do-you-think-the-DNC-Chairwomen-will-be-replaced-before-the-Dem-Convention&highlight=

6. When I asked if there is any good news for the Dems no one could give a single example
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthread.php?207380-Is-there-any-good-news-for-for-the-Dems&highlight=

Norman Bernstein
06-01-2016, 08:43 AM
It is easy to see if you open your eyes.


Only if you cherry-pick your sources, and ignore ANY other evidence... like national polls, for example.

I don't think I've ever encountered anyone so eager to reinforce their beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence. I don't know who will win the election... and neither do you... but your 'pronouncements' are either stupid, or funny... they're never serious, or based on any 'balanced' examination of facts and evidence.

genglandoh
06-01-2016, 09:09 AM
Only if you cherry-pick your sources, and ignore ANY other evidence... like national polls, for example.

I don't think I've ever encountered anyone so eager to reinforce their beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence. I don't know who will win the election... and neither do you... but your 'pronouncements' are either stupid, or funny... they're never serious, or based on any 'balanced' examination of facts and evidence.

This is so funny.
Every time a national poll shows something you do not like you try to argue that is does not matter.
Here are just 2 examples.


I've never seen so much navel-gazing!

The accuracy and prediction capability of national polls is already questionable enough.....

...arguing about the notion of voters staying home if so-and-so is the nominee is about two orders of magnitude LESS reliable, as an indicator.


Not quite right.... 33% of Democrats SAY they will not vote for Clinton, in this particular poll. Saying and doing are two different things.

In this election cycle, polling accuracy has gotten really bad... and the WORST kind of polling is the kind you reference, namely, the kind that presumes voting based on what is going on, right now. Whether a significant number of Democrats will simply not vote, if Hillary is the nominee, is highly doubtful.

If this were true, you'd see it reflected in the match-up polls.... but you don't. The match-up polls still show Clinton OR Sanders winning over Trump or Cruz in the general election.

I am also wondering what is the contradictory evidence that I am not seeing?
Is there any good news for the Dems that I am missing?

S.V. Airlie
06-01-2016, 09:20 AM
This is so funny.
Every time a national poll shows something you do not like you try to argue that is does not matter.
Here are just 2 examples.





I am also wondering what is the contradictory evidence that I am not seeing?
Is there any good news for the Dems that I am missing?Practically everything Geng however, I suspect you never will being a rabid Hillary hater and a Trump lover.

genglandoh
06-01-2016, 09:23 AM
Practically everything Geng however, I suspect you never will being a rabid Hillary hater and a Trump lover.

Can you give us an example?

Norman Bernstein
06-01-2016, 09:54 AM
Every time a national poll shows something you do not like you try to argue that is does not matter.

1) It's 5 months to the election. Anything can happen. Your endless quest to locate just the bad news for Democrats used to be funny... now it's getting incredibly silly.

2) If I DID care to predict an event 5 months into the future (which I do not), I'd look only one place: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm to see what ALL of the polls are saying. Right now, every major national poll, with one exception (Fox News... surprise, surprise) has Hillary ahead of Donald Trump....

...and even THAT piece of information conveys nothing really useful.


Is there any good news for the Dems that I am missing?

Yeah, I'd say that leading in every poll (excepting Fox News) is pretty good news, wouldn't you? ASSUMING, of course, that this is some sort of predictor of the actual election....

...which it is not.

genglandoh
06-01-2016, 10:04 AM
1) It's 5 months to the election. Anything can happen. Your endless quest to locate just the bad news for Democrats used to be funny... now it's getting incredibly silly.

2) If I DID care to predict an event 5 months into the future (which I do not), I'd look only one place: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm to see what ALL of the polls are saying. Right now, every major national poll, with one exception (Fox News... surprise, surprise) has Hillary ahead of Donald Trump....

...and even THAT piece of information conveys nothing really useful.



Yeah, I'd say that leading in every poll (excepting Fox News) is pretty good news, wouldn't you? ASSUMING, of course, that this is some sort of predictor of the actual election....

...which it is not.

I have constantly posted that Hillary is leading in the national polls.
But you seem to miss a few important points
1. Hillary has been dropping like a rock in the national polls.
2. Most of the polls show Hillary only leading by the margin of error so basically it is a tie.

Lets see where the polls are after both the Dem and Rep national conventions.

Norman Bernstein
06-01-2016, 10:08 AM
I have constantly posted that Hillary is leading in the national polls.

The only thing you've consistently done, is to cherry-pick what links you post.


But you seem to miss a few important points
1. Hillary has been dropping like a rock in the national polls.
2. Most of the polls show Hillary only leading by the margin of error so basically it is a tie.

Duuhhhhhh!!! No kiddin', you just figured that out?


Lets see where the polls are after both the Dem and Rep national conventions.

No.

Let's see what happens on November 2nd. All the rest is just chin music... but unfortunately, we're going to have to read your endless posts which spin every event, and every article, as if it's the sole determining factor in the election. I'm not particularly interested in any of that....

...I'm far more interested in the policies, proposals, agenda, and character, of the carnival barker who has used his celebrity to enslave the Republican Party for the sake of his ego.

Tom Montgomery
06-01-2016, 10:21 AM
Let's see what happens on November 2nd. All the rest is just chin music... but unfortunately, we're going to have to read your endless posts which spin every event, and every article, as if it's the sole determining factor in the election. I'm not particularly interested in any of that....He certainly is relentless.

I wonder what he imagines he is accomplishing?

hokiefan
06-01-2016, 10:23 AM
...

Let's see what happens on November 2nd. All the rest is just chin music... but unfortunately, we're going to have to read your endless posts which spin every event, and every article, as if it's the sole determining factor in the election. I'm not particularly interested in any of that....

...

No we're not.

genglandoh
06-02-2016, 02:12 PM
I think if
1. Sanders wins California
2. Hillary keeps dropping in the polls against Trump

Some super delegates will start to switch to Sanders.

Title: Superdelegates WILL Switch To Bernie. Here’s Why
Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-kall/superdelegates-will-switc_b_10063920.html

Just to be clear I do not think the KKK will switch their endorsement from Hillary to Sanders.

Sanders is coming on strong in California.

Title: Dem Race Tightens in California as Clinton Barely Leads Sanders 49% to 47%: Poll
Link: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141

elf
06-02-2016, 02:52 PM
no.

genglandoh
06-08-2016, 08:37 AM
I think if
1. Sanders wins California
2. Hillary keeps dropping in the polls against Trump

Some super delegates will start to switch to Sanders.

Title: Superdelegates WILL Switch To Bernie. Here’s Why
Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-kall/superdelegates-will-switc_b_10063920.html

Just to be clear I do not think the KKK will switch their endorsement from Hillary to Sanders.

Hillary won California with a good margin.
So I think most of the Super-Delegates will NOT switch to Sanders.

S.V. Airlie
06-08-2016, 08:41 AM
Bingo! Answers your own question.

Nicholas Scheuer
06-08-2016, 12:05 PM
I think, therefore I support Hillary for POYUS.

CWSmith
06-08-2016, 12:09 PM
He says 4 have switched. He needs many more.