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View Full Version : Maths debunk Conspiracies.



Peerie Maa
01-27-2016, 06:57 AM
Conspiracy theorists take a hit.


A study has examined how long alleged conspiracies could "survive" before being revealed - deliberately or unwittingly - to the public at large.
Dr David Grimes, from Oxford University, devised an equation to express this, and then applied it to four famous collusions.
The work appears in Plos One journal (http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147905).
The equation developed by Dr Grimes, a post-doctoral physicist at Oxford, relied upon three factors: the number of conspirators involved, the amount of time that has passed, and the intrinsic probability of a conspiracy failing.
He then applied his equation to four famous conspiracy theories: The belief that the Moon landing was faked, the belief that climate change is a fraud, the belief that vaccines cause autism, and the belief that pharmaceutical companies have suppressed a cure for cancer.
Dr Grimes's analysis suggests that if these four conspiracies were real, most are very likely to have been revealed as such by now.
Specifically, the Moon landing "hoax" would have been revealed in 3.7 years, the climate change "fraud" in 3.7 to 26.8 years, the vaccine-autism "conspiracy" in 3.2 to 34.8 years, and the cancer "conspiracy" in 3.2 years.



Read all about it: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35411684

jonboy
01-27-2016, 07:10 AM
Nah ...it's a conspiracy

CWSmith
01-27-2016, 08:39 AM
Interesting, but anyone who believes scientists lie will not believe or understand the math.

Jim Mahan
01-27-2016, 08:48 AM
It seems a pretty tame denouncing of conspiracies. Probably the math is too difficult to actually demonstrate in a short blurb. Too difficult for those of us not given to understanding sophisticated math.

At least that's what they want us to believe...

Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-27-2016, 09:56 AM
I was going to post that...

WszystekPoTrochu
01-27-2016, 10:08 AM
dr Grimes wasted his time, if proving anything was his point. The argument of usual short life of secrets is almost as old as conspiracy theories, throwing in some equations will not change a thing. Sadly, I think he never wanted to prove anything - just a way of coping with sad "publish or perish" reality.

Moreover, it's an open access paper, meaning somebody paid for this to be published. $1495, to be exact. Conspirationists will be very happy to ask who paid that.

Canoez
01-27-2016, 10:20 AM
Aw, c'mon. You don't believe that 'math' stuff. Don't you know that a lot of it was invented by Arabic people from North Africa?

<<<Insert serious sarcasm note here>>>

Too Little Time
01-27-2016, 11:05 AM
Conspiracy theorists take a hit.
So he has an untestable model that he claims is correct. It is untestable because he has no knowledge of real conspiracies that exist and have continued for a long time. And cannot test against them.

I guess a person who wanted to run a conspiracy would use this fellow's claim to make the claim that there are no long running conspiracies.

Peerie Maa
01-27-2016, 11:12 AM
So he has an untestable model that he claims is correct. It is untestable because he has no knowledge of real conspiracies that exist and have continued for a long time. And cannot test against them.

I guess a person who wanted to run a conspiracy would use this fellow's claim to make the claim that there are no long running conspiracies.

Did you read the link?

Specifically, he was missing a good estimate for the intrinsic probability of a conspiracy failing. To determine this, Dr Grimes analysed data from three genuine collusions.

The first was the surveillance program conducted by the US National Security Agency (NSA), known as PRISM. This programme involved, at most, 36,000 people and was famously revealed by Edward Snowden after about six years.

The second was the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, in which the cure for syphilis (penicillin) was purposefully withheld from African-American patients.
The experiment may have involved up to 6,700 people, and Dr Peter Buxtun blew the whistle after about 25 years.

The third was an FBI scandal in which it was revealed by Dr Frederic Whitehurst that the agency's forensic analysis was unscientific and misleading, resulting in the imprisonment and execution of innocent people.

RonW
01-27-2016, 11:55 AM
It is amazing the krapt that liberals buy into......

So what is a conspiracy ? A conspiracy is when several people or more do not buy the official story that is released by the government or media, and believe there is more to the story or an alternate story or facts left out ...

And the conspiracy shall remain a conspiracy till it is proved to be true or proved to be false.....and no form of math can change it..

paulf
01-27-2016, 12:02 PM
It is amazing the krapt that liberals buy into......

So what is a conspiracy ? A conspiracy is when several people or more do not buy the official story that is released by the government or media, and believe there is more to the story or an alternate story or facts left out ...

And the conspiracy shall remain a conspiracy till it is proved to be true or proved to be false.....and no form of math can change it..

I agree with this, math can also be used as smoke. Testing this model, honestly would take more time and money than most are willing to spend.

Too Little Time
01-27-2016, 12:26 PM
Did you read the link?
Yes, I did read the link.

He derived a number using three cases and then failed to test his theory against any other conspiracies. I am sure that there are many conspiracies that I am not privy to.

This "god" (religion) thing seems to be a conspiracy that has lasted far longer than it should have using his formula. But perhaps he considers neither side to be a conspiracy.

Jim Bow
01-27-2016, 01:03 PM
"What a fool believes he sees,
The wise man has no power to reason away."

skuthorp
01-27-2016, 03:19 PM
Well from my personal memory we knew both the Vietnam and Iraq 2 wars were being justified on false grounds, but they went ahead anyhow. The fact that the conspiracy was a crock from the start didn't seem to make much difference, and the perps walked away scott free.

Jim Bow
01-27-2016, 03:26 PM
The vaccine and warming conspiracies have been disproven time and time again, yet they are still promulgated by politicians and celebs.

Jim Mahan
01-27-2016, 05:26 PM
That Fiorina woman is still flogging the fake abortion video.

David G
01-27-2016, 05:29 PM
Did you read the link?

What are you suggesting?

All evidence TLT is capable of reading. Reasoning & comprehension... I just can't say. No evidence.

Tom Montgomery
01-27-2016, 05:31 PM
That Fiorina woman is still flogging the fake abortion video. A lot of good it is doing her.

Too Little Time
01-27-2016, 07:50 PM
What are you suggesting?

All evidence TLT is capable of reading. Reasoning & comprehension... I just can't say. No evidence.

It comes to mind that the Catholic church sexual abuse conspiracy falls outside of the predictions of this fellow's theory.

3400 credible abuse cases over 10 years. (But extending back what genreations?) 3500 priests involved over 10 years.

I wonder how long the flat earth conspiracy would be predicted to last. The church seemed to keep it alive for well over 1000 years?

mdh
01-27-2016, 09:46 PM
The global waming myth/conspiracy has already been exposed.

PhaseLockedLoop
01-28-2016, 11:00 AM
Well from my personal memory we knew both the Vietnam and Iraq 2 wars were being justified on false grounds, but they went ahead anyhow. The fact that the conspiracy was a crock from the start didn't seem to make much difference, and the perps walked away scott free.

American foreign policy is predicated on conspiracy theories. We invaded Iraq because we claimed to believe that they were conspiring to produce WMD. We assassinate people in many countries because we claim to believe that they conspire against us in some way that merits summary execution. We demonize Iran because they conspire to...conspire to...um...conspire to deny the value of secular government! Conspire, in short, against Science itself! Muslims, same way.

In fact, the massive surveillance at home is justified by the notion that dangerous conspiracies are rife. We have to dump our civil liberties in order for Officials to "keep us safe." Such nameless conspiracies are so ubiquitous that, despite our frantic efforts over the last 15 years, we're now told that we're in more danger than ever.

On the other hand (to coin a phrase) there are those who believe that the above activity is itself a conspiracy to amplify power by building and maintaining Fear.