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View Full Version : Brace yourselves…………. and sell everything.



skuthorp
01-12-2016, 02:55 AM
The RBS warns of a ''cataclysmic year".
"The Royal Bank of Scotland sent out an alarming message to its clients saying that they should prepare for a “cataclysmic year” ahead and sell everything except high quality bond. The bank’s credit team has warned that the global economy is headed for a deflationary crisis as the stock

marketshttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png (http://www.ibtimes.com.au/royal-bank-scotland-urges-clients-brace-cataclysmic-year-1499787#) are expected to fall by a fifth and oil prices to drop to US$16 (AU$23) a barrel.
The bank’s credit team said that the current market conditions are flashing the same red alert as during the months that led up to the Lehman crisis in 2008."

It's likely a good time to have cash, though where to put it is another matter.

It may be a nervous time as the forecast of stock market mayhem may effectively cause them.

lupussonic
01-12-2016, 03:23 AM
16$ a barrel?

Them OPEC guys really should pull their protectionist pants up, I'm standing underneath and am knee deep already.

It's a nightmare trying to forecast oil prices though, too much volatile goepolitikishneezi to figure out.

PeterSibley
01-12-2016, 03:44 AM
The Saudis don't really seem to care and if they don't care they'll keep pumping and the demand is not there. Right now they're happy to be hurting Iran and Russia, everyone else is collateral damage.

skuthorp
01-12-2016, 03:53 AM
There was a piece on radio this morning about the Saudi royals maybe selling shares in some of their oil assets.
"One of the more intriguing developments in these earliest moments of 2016 has been last week’s disclosure by Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince that the kingdom is considering an initial public offering of shares in its state-owned Aramco, the world’s biggest and most influential oil exporter.Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman told The Economist last week that a sale of shares in Aramco was being reviewed and was something he was personally enthusiastic about.
“I believe it is in the interests of the Saudi market, and it is in the interest of Aramco, and it is in the interests of more transparency and to counter corruption, if any, that may be circling around Aramco,” he said."
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/stephen-bartholomeusz/compelling-case-for-saudi-arabias-oil-sale/news-story/da1df8da6f81eb1b1b54bbcdcbd2369d

slug
01-12-2016, 03:55 AM
The RBS warns of a ''cataclysmic year".
"The Royal Bank of Scotland sent out an alarming message to its clients saying that they should prepare for a “cataclysmic year” ahead and sell everything except high quality bond. The bank’s credit team has warned that the global economy is headed for a deflationary crisis as the stock

markets
http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png
(http://www.ibtimes.com.au/royal-bank-scotland-urges-clients-brace-cataclysmic-year-1499787#) are expected to fall by a fifth and oil prices to drop to US$16 (AU$23) a barrel.
The bank’s credit team said that the current market conditions are flashing the same red alert as during the months that led up to the Lehman crisis in 2008."

It's likely a good time to have cash, though where to put it is another matter.

It may be a nervous time as the forecast of stock market mayhem may effectively cause them.



hmmm...sell everything ?

skuthorp
01-12-2016, 03:58 AM
Just quoting an article Slug, but remember the RBS had a very bad time of it in the GFC. I lost a deal of money with them myself. Getting in early this time and maybe overcautious?

PeterSibley
01-12-2016, 04:00 AM
Well if you do sell everything buy gold , that headline will make you 5%.

slug
01-12-2016, 04:19 AM
Would be wise to sell non dividend stocks that you feel are fully valued.

pharmaceuticals are taking a political beating ...be alert , stay with blue chips.

Goldman Sacks recommend high quality dividend stocks for 2016

index returns, stock appreciation , will be flat...dividends will keep you going this year.

The bank sector should be profitable if interest rate rise.

Energy is probably a good sector to invest.

the high quality stuff like Sclumberger, Halliburton , Exxon are the three I have.

McMike
01-12-2016, 07:38 AM
Can you post a link to the story please?

Durnik
01-12-2016, 07:43 AM
here (http://www.ibtimes.com.au/royal-bank-scotland-urges-clients-brace-cataclysmic-year-1499787#) Mike, it was in the middle of the quote.

enjoy
bobby

jack grebe
01-12-2016, 07:56 AM
Already selling, hoping things last till I close on the house next month.
Low gas prices will be great as Donna and I are planning on a lap around the country
on the motorcycles after that.

skuthorp
01-12-2016, 08:14 AM
Even BHP, the 'old faithful' of the Aussie share market is off. A combination of low mineral and oil prices and quakes in the Chinese market. I've bought a few medicals, CSL, Cochlear and a company looking at Alzheimer's. I may have a personal interest in that one one day……………..:ycool:

TomZ
01-12-2016, 08:37 AM
Already selling, hoping things last till I close on the house next month.
Low gas prices will be great as Donna and I are planning on a lap around the country
on the motorcycles after that.

Now thats a plan! Good luck with it.

Upshur
01-12-2016, 08:52 AM
nothing to sell!Take my wife!

WszystekPoTrochu
01-12-2016, 08:58 AM
Well if you do sell everything buy gold , that headline will make you 5%.

Ain't gold a growing speculative bubble in last years, too?

Norman Bernstein
01-12-2016, 08:58 AM
Goldman Sacks recommend high quality dividend stocks for 2016
index returns, stock appreciation , will be flat...dividends will keep you going this year.



I've been singing that song for years now.


The RBS warns of a ''cataclysmic year".

Yup, fear and loathing... the only people who are going to be hurt, will be those who panic... but us long term investors aren't perturbed in the least bit. I've been around long enough, on this earth, to know that which goes down will eventually come up. People who cannot ride the roller coaster shouldn't be on one.

Frankly, I think the 'warning' is way overblown.

Bob Adams
01-12-2016, 09:11 AM
I let my IRA alone during market swings either way....Norman is right, those who panic lose, long term.

Norman Bernstein
01-12-2016, 09:38 AM
I let my IRA alone during market swings either way....Norman is right, those who panic lose, long term.

Precisely. It amazes me that people who wouldn't think of trying to be 'market timers' in normal markets, would be desperately selling, based on a negative outlook, during a market correction.

Nonetheless, the advice about buying solid, large cap stocks with ample dividends and long records of dividend increases does pay off. I notice, this morning, that year-to-date (i.e., the last two weeks), the S&P 500 is off by -5.83%.... I, on the other hand, am only down -3.65%. Outside of the speculative issues, the market volatility is always lower... yet the dividends keep rolling in.

skuthorp
01-12-2016, 03:12 PM
The pundits in these matters and the brokers usually have a financial interest in turnover. If everyone holds, thinks long term, then they make no money themselves. I'm a long term holder, not a speculator. But I'm careful what stocks I buy even if they are good earners.
I might add that I'm not a big investor, I don't have the capital. But it's an interesting thing to follow at times.

The Bigfella
01-12-2016, 03:30 PM
The pundits in these matters and the brokers usually have a financial interest in turnover. If everyone holds, thinks long term, then they make no money themselves. I'm a long term holder, not a speculator. But I'm careful what stocks I buy even if they are good earners.
I might add that I'm not a big investor, I don't have the capital. But it's an interesting thing to follow at times.


.... and if RBS were wrong last time, the odds are that they'll be wrong this time too. It ain't as if Scotland's an economic powerhouse....

leikec
01-12-2016, 03:31 PM
If you're taking a huge tax hit by selling then it makes sense to stay invested in the market and use things like dividend payouts and other hedges to counter capital losses, as long as your personal perspective is fairly long term.

Otherwise, it makes sense to go into a cash basis for a bit until a clear idea of the situation emerges. Making nothing and being liquid is very attractive when many investments are taking a big hit and volitality is very high.

Jeff C

Gerarddm
01-12-2016, 03:47 PM
Time for a massive Elliot Wave downturn, hey?

You know what is good? To have no debt. Other than my paltry mortgage, I owe nada. Zip.

I take John Mayall's advice: " I can't give my best unless I got room to move ". :-)

The Bigfella
01-12-2016, 03:56 PM
I take advice from Confucius: "Bottom picker get dirty finger"

skuthorp
01-12-2016, 07:03 PM
.... and if RBS were wrong last time, the odds are that they'll be wrong this time too. It ain't as if Scotland's an economic powerhouse....
My point entirely Ian, I suspect they are rather anxious not to be left behind again. Nevertheless I do expect a big 'correction' in the near future.

PeterSibley
01-12-2016, 07:07 PM
Our housing bubble will hurt when it pops and they always pop eventually.

skuthorp
01-12-2016, 07:26 PM
Negative equity can be a bu**er.

PeterSibley
01-12-2016, 07:33 PM
Despair is the word.

jack grebe
01-14-2016, 07:57 AM
Time for a massive Elliot Wave downturn, hey?

You know what is good? To have no debt. Other than my paltry mortgage, I owe nada. Zip.

I take John Mayall's advice: " I can't give my best unless I got room to move ". :-)
No dept and no mortgage in about 5weeks

slug
01-14-2016, 12:24 PM
No dept and no mortgage in about 5weeks

good man. Keep up the good work

Market swings and economic recessions hammer debt holders.

PeterSibley
01-14-2016, 04:37 PM
I've never had a mortgage , I preferred to pay cash.

skuthorp
01-14-2016, 05:01 PM
The economists won't like you Peter:d

skuthorp
01-17-2016, 03:20 PM
I, and many others better qualified, think the bubble is about to pop.
EG.
“I think that this frothiness that we have seen in financial markets is likely to continue, from equities to credit to housing, and in a couple of years, most likely, this asset inflation is going to become asset frothiness and eventually an asset and a credit bubble and eventually any bubble ends up in a bust and a crash. I would say that valuations in many markets, whether it’s government bonds or credit, or real estate, or some equity markets, are already stretched. And they’re going to become more stretched as the real economy justifies the slow exit, and all this liquidity is going to go into more asset inflation.
So two years down the line, we could have this shakeout … 2016 I would say.”

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/roubini-the-mother-of-all-asset-bubbles-will-burst-in-2016-2014-12

But there's a whole page here: http://www.google.com.au/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=assett+bubbles+likely+to+pop&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&ei=vvWbVsasHMTu8wfWsqroCQ

Mining companies are into banks in a big way, and the value of much of the mining assets has fallen over. That's another problem. It's a good time to have no debt and some cash, but that won't insulate entirely of course.