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Paul Pless
12-26-2015, 01:21 PM
Ninety nine percent of those approached by Gallup's firm actually replied to the pollster.

The average mainstream media political poll nowadays has a response rate of less than .03%.

oznabrag
12-26-2015, 02:21 PM
Ninety nine percent of those approached by Gallup's firm actually replied to the pollster.

The average mainstream media political poll nowadays has a response rate of less than .03%.

Which translates as ~1/1000 of voter turnout.

Really.

The most reliable way to get respectable voter turnout seems to be some sort of bloody, horrible internal war.

Elections held after such events regularly see turnout in the high 90% range.

Is this what was meant by the 'tree of liberty being watered in the blood of patriots' BS?

THERE HAS TO BE A BETTER WAY,PEOPLE!

S.V. Airlie
12-26-2015, 02:24 PM
turnout 90%. No, not in the US.

Canoeyawl
12-26-2015, 03:13 PM
The most reliable way to get respectable voter turnout seems to be some sort of bloody, horrible internal war.


The war on drugs, the war on women, war on crime, war on Christmas, war on metaphors, you name it - the reds have it down...
No wonder they have a better turnout.

skuthorp
12-26-2015, 03:41 PM
How about a war on polls?
I think that the media have over egged the pudding to the point that they are no longer of much use. They have also become a partisan matter attempting to attract support to 'the winning side' by inference.
Technology too has pulled the rug out in that polling is on land lines mostly, slanting the participants even more so.

Canoeyawl
12-26-2015, 03:45 PM
The use is to sway the electorate...

SMARTINSEN
12-26-2015, 03:48 PM
Are you sure that you have the decimal point in the right place? Three out of ten thousand? Or three out of a hundred?

S.V. Airlie
12-26-2015, 03:50 PM
Are you sure that you have the decimal point in the right place? Three out of ten thousand? Or three out of a hundred?Which post are you referring to?

Stiletto
12-26-2015, 04:47 PM
How about a war on polls?

I'd vote for that!

Keith Wilson
12-26-2015, 07:39 PM
The average mainstream media political poll nowadays has a response rate of less than .03%.Eh? .03%?? One in 3300 people answer the questions? That seems extremely unlikely. Source please?

Here's a study from '12 (http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/) that gives an average response rate of 9%. Still low, but a very long way from 0.03%

Norman Bernstein
12-26-2015, 08:56 PM
Eh? .03%?? One in 3300 people answer the questions? That seems extremely unlikely. Source please?

Here's a study from '12 (http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/) that gives an average response rate of 9%. Still low, but a very long way from 0.03%

Regardless of the actual number, I think we can all agree that the response rate is exceptionally low.

Obviously, things went downhill, for posters, with the advent of the cell phone. Reputable pollsters like Gallup are most certainly critically aware of the problem, and they employ strategies to combat the combination of low response rates and generational divides between land line users and cell phone users.

Unfortunately, there's no way to know how WELL they cope with these problems. For one thing, any poll is only as good as the instant at which the poll is taken, since political opinions shift VERY rapidly, so there's no metric to measure the fidelity of a poll.

I tend to believe the 'gross' results, though.... if Gallup, for example, says that Hilary is polling 22 points ahead of Sanders, I would trust the poll enough to know that she is indeed well ahead. If the split is no larger, than, say 2x the margin of error, then I'm NOT sure I'd trust the poll.

I do believe that Trump, for example, leads the GOP field. However, I don't read any such polls as any sort of prediction of what will happen on Primary day... especially when it comes to Trump. I believe his popularity is soft as a grape... it's trendy for someone to SAY they support him, but will they actually pull a lever for him? Maybe, maybe not.

oznabrag
12-26-2015, 09:06 PM
Ninety nine percent of those approached by Gallup's firm actually replied to the pollster.

The average mainstream media political poll nowadays has a response rate of less than .03%.


Eh? .03%?? One in 3300 people answer the questions? That seems extremely unlikely. Source please?

Here's a study from '12 (http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/) that gives an average response rate of 9%. Still low, but a very long way from 0.03%

Troll-dog got ya with the cherry-picked, apples/oranges stat.

Gallup isn't the 'average, mainstream-media political poll'.

Gotta get up early in the morning to stay ahead of Pless.

Plesses is tricksey, they is.

Canoeyawl
12-26-2015, 09:07 PM
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine

"The modern public-opinion poll has been around since the Great Depression, when the response rate—the number of people who take a survey as a percentage of those who were asked—was more than ninety. The participation rate—the number of people who take a survey as a percentage of the population—is far lower. Election pollsters sample only a minuscule portion of the electorate, not uncommonly something on the order of a couple of thousand people out of the more than two hundred million Americans who are eligible to vote".

Paul Pless
12-26-2015, 09:17 PM
Eh? .03%?? One in 3300 people answer the questions? That seems extremely unlikely. Source please?

Here's a study from '12 (http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/) that gives an average response rate of 9%. Still low, but a very long way from 0.03%

The numbers reflect the evolution of polling methods. When Gallup began polling, the process was very different than it is now, for one thing all polling was done in person, face to face. Now the majority of polls conducted by the mainstream media organizations are actually 'on-line'.

Keith Wilson
12-26-2015, 09:35 PM
The Pew Foundation study I linked was not about just Gallup. I think Pless's 0.03% response rate is just wrong.

That New Yorker article was very good, but it's not where the figure came from.

Paul Pless
12-26-2015, 09:42 PM
Sorry I can't find a link to support my numbers. Contrary to garbanzo's accusation, my intention was not to troll anybody with this. I merely felt the topic both interesting and germane.