What the GOP most fear about Trump.

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  • S.V. Airlie
    Ancient Mariner
    • Dec 2006
    • 63914

    What the GOP most fear about Trump.

    For months, the Republican establishment has faced a difficult dilemma in dealing with poll leader Donald Trump. Many GOP elites think the billionaire's offensive statements are hurting their party — but they don't want to push back so hard that Trump bolts the party, runs as an independent, and picks up substantial support.
    So it's no accident that after the chorus of condemnations from both Democrats and Republicans about Trump's proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States, the mogul tweeted the following:


    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 8, 2015


    The new poll, from Suffolk and USA Today, does indeed show that 68 percent of self-professed Trump supporters nationally would back a Trump independent candidacy, and that only 18 percent say they would not, in what Susan Page calls "a chilling sign for Republicans." There are reasons to believe the number of voters willing to back a Trump independent bid would shrink as the election gets closer, if they start approaching their vote choice more strategically. But in a close race, a Trump independent candidacy could very well cause the GOP nominee to lose (and Matt Yglesias has made the case that Trump's views fit very well with what we might expect from a theoretical third party).
    Now, it's true that back in September Trump signed a pledge stating that he'll back the eventual GOP nominee. However, as I wrote at the time, there was nothing binding him to that pledge — and Trump very notably qualified it by saying that he had to be treated "fairly."
    What counts as "fair" is, it seems up to Trump. Two weeks ago, he implied that an effort from Republican consultant Liz Mair to raise money from Republican donors for a "guerrilla campaign" against Trump might violate "the deal," in his eyes (even though Mair is a free agent who has no role with the Republican National Committee):


    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 23, 2015


    However, all this very well may be a bluff from Trump. He openly admitted at the first GOP debate that he liked to use the threat of an independent bid as "leverage" to get what he wanted from party elites. And "sore loser" ballot laws would prevent him from even appearing on the ballot in Ohio and Michigan if he runs in the primaries there — which, of course, would make it quite difficult for him to win the presidency.
    Still, the risk of a Trump third party run is clearly one GOP elites aren't comfortable taking. That was evident when RNC chair Reince Priebus — who made the deal with Trump — was asked about Trump's new proposal by the Washington Examiner's David Drucker on Tuesday, and offered only a terse and muted disagreement. "I don't agree," Priebus said, "We need to aggressively take on radical Islamic terrorism but not at the expense of our American values." When Drucker followed up, Priebus said only, "That's as far as I'm going to go."
  • SullivanB
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2015
    • 1392

    #2
    Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

    The Trump supporters would have a very difficult choice in supporting a Trump third party bid. Their opting out of the Republican fold would likely guarantee a socialist or, maybe worse in their eyes, a Clinton in the White House. I suspect that, in the end, a large percentage would not follow Trump, despite what they're saying now.

    Comment

    • S.V. Airlie
      Ancient Mariner
      • Dec 2006
      • 63914

      #3
      Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

      I agree but, two thing come to mind Perot got 10% of the vote. Bush lost. If Trumpet runs, would 10% be enough? If all his robots don't vote for him, could it just be 10%

      Roosevelt in 1912 ran as an independent, he actually got more votes than Pre.Taft. A dem won.

      Comment

      • Gerarddm
        #RESIST
        • Feb 2010
        • 32453

        #4
        Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

        Lawrence O'Donnell of MSNBC did the numbers. 68% of Trump supporters say they'd follow him as an independent. In reality, that works out to a little under 6% of all eligible voters. He would be toast.
        Gerard>
        Albuquerque, NM

        Next election, vote against EVERY Republican, for EVERY office, at EVERY level. Be patriotic, save the country.

        Comment

        • S.V. Airlie
          Ancient Mariner
          • Dec 2006
          • 63914

          #5
          Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

          Sp would the nominee (GOP one nominated)

          Comment

          • Daniel Noyes
            Banned
            • Jan 2007
            • 8532

            #6
            Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

            Im tired of:

            Dumbocrats telling me ........."what Republicans fear the most"
            Non (anti) Christians telling me ............. "what the Bible says" or what "Christians think about this or that"
            people who know Nothing about gun saftey............ giving breathless and authoritative lectures about "what needs to be done with guns to make us safe"
            people who know Nothing about Terrorism.............. self-righteously pronouncing anyone a "Racist!!!" or a coward, who has genuine concers about the saftey of US citizens.

            Comment

            • S.V. Airlie
              Ancient Mariner
              • Dec 2006
              • 63914

              #7
              Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

              Yup, the republicans are too oblivious to see the writing on the wall. Typical, blame the dems for doing so.

              Comment

              • skuthorp
                Senior Member
                • Jan 2002
                • 73600

                #8
                Re: What the GOP most fear about Trump.

                Then don't join the conversation Daniel. I regularly stay out of various topics because of my distaste for the posts/posters, or knowledge that I'd be pi55ing in the wind, so why don't you try it? There is no compulsion to participate.

                Comment

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