PDA

View Full Version : Economic policies that work



David G
12-20-2014, 11:42 AM
Every bit of evidence we have shows that the whole Trickle-Down thing is a giant bust. And still... Republicans persist in the folly. Kansas, recently, is one example --

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/14035_10152615430921275_6976833555307675017_n.jpg? oh=e12130adabc1653725df800790846587&oe=5540DDA0&__gda__=1429569633_3014cc8a1f9e5c2dd6330c0adcf11d9 b

David G
12-20-2014, 01:38 PM
TLT - you could be right. Not only that, but economics is not as simple as isolating one factor and comparing. And... of course... we're not discussing a clinically controlled experiment. In the real world, there's no way to filter out extraneous variables. But every bit of evidence we have tells us that TrickleDown is both a failure and a scam. This is just one simple illustration of that fact. You can use it as a stepping off point for further exploration... or you can dismiss it, in simple-minded fashion, as being too simple-minded. The fact remains... California changed their policies, so did Kansas... and we've seen the results. There may well be more behind the results than a simple graphic can encompass... but the graphic captures the crux of the matter - and the core of the truth.

Paul Pless
12-20-2014, 01:47 PM
Threads like this disappoint me.

David G
12-20-2014, 02:24 PM
My point was more along the lines that the graphic is wrong. And as such may cause people to infer that trickle down works and one has to resort to "wrong" arguments to support the claim that trickle down is a failure and a scam.

The principle reason that tax rate changes affect government revenue is that the rich have a great deal of flexibility as to when to pay taxes. With the proper incentives - a discounted rate now or an non discounted rate in the future, a tax cut can increase revenue. States and the federal government often forget the need for the non discounted rate in the future.


So you understand how powerful an effect taxes have on people: My kids want no part of our traditional IRAs after we die. About $500K after taxes. But they will take our Roth IRAs and non-retirement funds where no taxes are due.

Wrong how?

The 'analysis' you cite seems to be confusing the overall amount of debt racked up during the Great Recession - which has not yet been caught up with - with a surplus for the year. Since I don't know anything about your source, I can only suggest that you might want to regard further pronouncements from them with suspicion. Do they have some sort of political agenda? No idea.... but the amount of misleading going on suggests either incompetence or deliberate lying.

David G
12-20-2014, 10:08 PM
Proving once again that it takes far more time/energy to disprove bs than it does to create it in the first place. Well... I don't have any interest in chasing you around disproving various objections. When you settle on one you want to stick with... let me know. Maybe we can resume the discussion.

slug
12-21-2014, 04:54 AM
Dont know anyhing about california trickle down. In my world, yachts, trickle down is everything.

Peerie Maa
12-21-2014, 05:04 AM
"First budget surplus in a decade" seems rather thin evidence to support your position.

That is a bit of a cheap shot. Most of the worlds economies have been stuffed for the last ten years. Any State turning that round has to be doing something right

George Jung
12-21-2014, 05:51 PM
Which, of course, fails to address the disparity between Kansas and California.

Enjoy.

slug
12-21-2014, 11:52 PM
Seems California ranks as the worst state to do buisness for every year that I looked.

Texas, North Carolina, Indiana......seem to have the best competitiveness policies.



Best 5 States for Business Rank 2013
Texas 1st
Florida 2nd
North Carolina 3rd
Tennessee 4th
Indiana 5th



Worst 5 States for Business Rank 2013
California 50th
New York 49th
Illinois 48th
Massachusetts 47th
New Jersey 46th



The Best & Worst States Survey measures the sentiments of CEOs on a range of issues, including regulations, tax policies, workforce quality, educational resources, quality of living and infrastructure. For the 2013 survey, 736 CEOs from across the country evaluated the states between Jan. 16 and Feb. 14, 2013.


CEOs say California’s poor ranking is the result of a perceived hostility to business, high state taxes and onerous regulations, all of which drive investment, companies and jobs to other states.


“California, Illinois and New York are simply awful states to operate facilities or employ people,” according to another CEO. “We will do almost anything possible to minimize our exposure to these anti-business environments.”




“CEOs continue to tell us that California seems to be doing everything possible to drive business from the state "


outflow of workers from California .


http://s14.postimg.org/jldc0j8w1/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
sube imagenes (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)

Boater14
12-22-2014, 01:52 PM
I think this illustrates the trouble America is in. TLT seems like a smart guy in some ways yet he cannot deal with simple facts. Slug, those rankings are idiotic. of course CEO's love states the give them the keys to the hen house. those five worst seems to be where everyone actually lives and works. bah.

slug
12-22-2014, 01:57 PM
Middle class workers like jobs.

David G
12-22-2014, 03:37 PM
My conclusions are not your conclusions. My economic models are not your economic models. I will even agree that my facts may not be your facts. But economics is not "simple facts."

Life is not about facts or conclusions. Life is about choices. I try to explain my choices. I don't care if others accept my conclusions, models, or facts. No one should care if others accept theirs. But you and many others seem to think their model, conclusions, and facts are the only ones that are valid.

Well... THAT'S enough for me. I do believe I will add you to the formal ignore list... as attempting to have a rational conversation seems to be bootless. As a last bit of advice... I'd suggest you ask you medico about checking your cognitive funtion. Sometimes a series of mini-strokes can result in the sort of thought patterns you are exhibiting. NO... that's NOT a shot. It's a sincere heads-up.

Keith Wilson
12-22-2014, 03:44 PM
Life is not about facts or conclusions. Life is about choices. OK. But if your conclusions and choices (conclusions being a subset of choices) are not based on facts, than you're likely in for some trouble.

johnw
12-22-2014, 03:50 PM
"First budget surplus in a decade" seems rather thin evidence to support your position. There seems to be some concern that the surplus was created by bookkeeping rather than fact.

http://watchdogwire.com/california/2014/06/13/ca-state-controller-state-has-8-5-billion-cash-deficit-gov-brown-calls-that-a-surplus/

But I will agree that trickle down does not work.

Well, I moused around on the internet and found this:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harlan-green/californias-budget-surplu_b_6139802.htmlAnd California now has a very large budget surplus, because of it. State Controller John Chiang (http://sco.ca.gov/eo_pressrel_15182.html) in a press release just released his monthly cash report for the month of June, and announced that the state's General Fund -- the primary account from which California funds its day-to-day operations and programs -- ended the fiscal year with a positive cash balance for the first time since June 30, 2007.

A positive cash balance means that the state had funds available to meet all of its payment obligations without needing to borrow from Wall Street or the $23.8 billion available in its more than 700 internal special funds and accounts.
And what about California's drought that could badly hurt future growth? Voters also overwhelming approved Proposition 1 to address water conservation and climate change problems that could create even more severe water shortages.

It will take a number of quarterly budget surpluses to pay back the accrued debt. From your source:


http://watchdogwire.com/california/2014/06/13/ca-state-controller-state-has-8-5-billion-cash-deficit-gov-brown-calls-that-a-surplus/
As of the end of May, the State’s cash reserves exceed the Governor’s January projection by $4.9 billion. This positive reserve is comprised of $3.5 billion in greater than anticipated internal borrowable resources and a cash deficit that is lower than projections by $1.4 billion. That cash deficit, now $8.5 billion, is being covered by both internal and external borrowing.

It appears to me that the "cash deficit" referred to here is the accrued debt, not the cash balance for the quarter. Usually, to avoid confusion, this is referred to as debt. Now, I'm not an economist or even an accountant, and I may be interpreting this wrong, but I suspect it's your source that is doing so.

wardd
12-22-2014, 03:52 PM
My conclusions are not your conclusions. My economic models are not your economic models. I will even agree that my facts may not be your facts. But economics is not "simple facts."

Life is not about facts or conclusions. Life is about choices. I try to explain my choices. I don't care if others accept my conclusions, models, or facts. No one should care if others accept theirs. But you and many others seem to think their model, conclusions, and facts are the only ones that are valid.

facts have a validity all their own, you can not have your own facts

johnw
12-22-2014, 03:54 PM
Seems California ranks as the worst state to do buisness for every year that I looked.

Texas, North Carolina, Indiana......seem to have the best competitiveness policies.



Best 5 States for Business Rank 2013
Texas 1st
Florida 2nd
North Carolina 3rd
Tennessee 4th
Indiana 5th



Worst 5 States for Business Rank 2013
California 50th
New York 49th
Illinois 48th
Massachusetts 47th
New Jersey 46th



The Best & Worst States Survey measures the sentiments of CEOs on a range of issues, including regulations, tax policies, workforce quality, educational resources, quality of living and infrastructure. For the 2013 survey, 736 CEOs from across the country evaluated the states between Jan. 16 and Feb. 14, 2013.


CEOs say California’s poor ranking is the result of a perceived hostility to business, high state taxes and onerous regulations, all of which drive investment, companies and jobs to other states.


“California, Illinois and New York are simply awful states to operate facilities or employ people,” according to another CEO. “We will do almost anything possible to minimize our exposure to these anti-business environments.”




“CEOs continue to tell us that California seems to be doing everything possible to drive business from the state "


outflow of workers from California .



sube imagenes (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)

Somebody must be doing business in the "worst" states.


List of U.S. states and territories by GSP in 2005-2009
State

2009
Rank

2009 GSP
($ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar)Millions)

2008
Rank

2008 GSP
($ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar)Millions)

2007
Rank

2007 GSP
($ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar)Millions)

2006
Rank

2006 GSP
($ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar)Millions)

2005
Rank

2005 GSP
($ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar)Millions)



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png United States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States)

14,119,000

14,369,100

14,061,800

13,398,900

12,638,400


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/01/Flag_of_California.svg/23px-Flag_of_California.svg.png California (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California)

1
1,891,363
1
1,846,757
1
1,801,762
1
1,727,599
1
1,628,599


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/Flag_of_Texas.svg/23px-Flag_of_Texas.svg.png Texas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas)
2
1,244,695
2
1,223,511
2
1,148,531
2
1,070,305
2
982,058


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Flag_of_New_York.svg/23px-Flag_of_New_York.svg.png New York (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York)
3
1,093,219
3
1,144,481
3
1,105,020
3
1,034,087
3
956,378


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/Flag_of_Florida.svg/23px-Flag_of_Florida.svg.png Florida (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida)
4
737,038
4
744,120
4
741,861
4
721,380
4
670,030


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/01/Flag_of_Illinois.svg/23px-Flag_of_Illinois.svg.png Illinois (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois)
5
630,398
5
633,697
5
617,409
5
588,863

Norman Bernstein
12-24-2014, 11:16 AM
The Best & Worst States Survey measures the sentiments of CEOs


Stop right there.... the 'sentiments' of CEO's determine what is 'best' or 'worst'?

You've got Massachusetts listed in the top 5 worst states... but the MA economy sure wouldn't be able to confirm that.

In fact, we're in the midst of a striking real estate boom, right in the heart of some of the most expensive real estate in all of Massachusetts... it's in Kendall Square, in Cambridge, just across the river from Boston.

The phenomenon is interesting. What is happening is that biotech companies are snapping up every square inch of available real estate there... because they are moving their R&D facilities from other states, to Massachusetts. Why? A number of reasons, but it's partially because the Massachusetts tax and regulatory structure is favorable to scientific R&D, but also because Boston sports an incredible concentration of both first class universities, and first class hospitals. In short, it's the most favorable place to conduct research.

All of this puts tremendous pressure on things like area rents, transportation, etc.... but apparently, the trade-off is well worth it. Companies are moving their operations from places that you'd think would be more favorable to business: red states with low or lax regulation, lower taxes (although the 'Taxachusetts' thing has long ago been debunked as a complete myth).

To put it succinctly: the expressed 'sentiments' of CEO's may, or may not, reflect actual reality.

DMillet
12-24-2014, 01:28 PM
My son's a first year IBEW apprentice here in upstate NY. Seems the union can't hire enough apprentices to keep up with all the work. Business is BOOMING all around the capital district. Sometimes those selfsame high taxes support the very infrastructure that attracts new businesses. There's more to "business friendly" than low wages and low taxes.