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View Full Version : 50% chance of a Southwest Megadrought lasting 35 years or longer



Nanoose
08-30-2014, 12:38 AM
Well, this could empty Southern Cali

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-megadrought-southwest-17969

Glen Longino
08-30-2014, 12:51 AM
Dammit, Deb, I was just getting a good Tequila buzz on...now I'm stone cold sober knowing I'm doomed to dessication!

seanz
08-30-2014, 01:02 AM
Start stockpiling ice-cubes.........you'll be fine.

Nanoose
08-30-2014, 01:22 AM
Dammit, Deb, I was just getting a good Tequila buzz on...now I'm stone cold sober knowing I'm doomed to dessication!
You may just have to move a bit north, Lovey. ;)

Glen Longino
08-30-2014, 01:35 AM
I sometimes look at pics of your country and wonder why I stay here.

Peerie Maa
08-30-2014, 02:33 AM
You should all come to the UK. We are likely to get more rain. Not necessarily more often, but in bigger lumps.

seanz
08-30-2014, 02:42 AM
You should all come to the UK. We are likely to get more rain. Not necessarily more often, but in bigger lumps.


It rains lumps?



Really?



When it really dumps, do the lumps form humps?

PeterSibley
08-30-2014, 03:08 AM
It does here, we had 48 inches / 1200mm in 3 days last year.:(

with 3/4 of the state in drought.

seanz
08-30-2014, 03:11 AM
It does here, we had 48 inches / 1200mm in 3 days last year.:(

with 3/4 of the state in drought.

F N L , if we get 4 to 6 inches we're in trouble........course, we're on the flats here.

Peerie Maa
08-30-2014, 03:14 AM
When it really dumps, do the lumps form humps?

The lumps are so wide, that they hump in the middle.

seanz
08-30-2014, 03:20 AM
Sounds like some plump lumps.......

PeterSibley
08-30-2014, 03:46 AM
F N L , if we get 4 to 6 inches we're in trouble........course, we're on the flats here.

The flats are in trouble here too .... I stay in the hills .

LeeG
08-30-2014, 06:26 AM
Last 200yrs have been relatively wet. Imagine a 200yr drought which occurred 1700yrs ago.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliihis1000a.html

skuthorp
08-30-2014, 07:39 AM
The WHO is already sounding alarms re the food supply and population increases.

S.V. Airlie
08-30-2014, 08:02 AM
Water Rights fights...coming soon to your local news media!

Dan McCosh
08-30-2014, 08:04 AM
The American West is a desert. Dunno what it means to have drought in a desert.

Jim Mahan
08-30-2014, 08:21 AM
Isn't it sort of a shame in this day and age of technical marvels that we haven't figured out how to regularly and cheaply turn some seawater into freshwater?

We're not expecting more rain. We're still growing the population of water-users. We've just about drained all the usual natural and man-made water reservoirs, and now we're beginning to realize we're also draining the below ground water, which is a geological formation that won't be replenished in our lifetimes. Soon, relatively, according the shallow mainstream reporting, we'll have to choose between everyone having a drink and growing crops, and letting fish habitat literally dry up. Still, all these major rivers are dumping fresh water into the sea at more or less the same rate as forever.

I know we have the science to desalinate, I am certain we possess the engineering genius to create a sustainable system of desalination, that could be built all around the globe. According to science fiction, which in many cases (not all of course) suggests ways for things to be better in the future, we will eventually be able to adjust or enhance precipitation patterns, which might be an answer to the age old problem of drought.

In the spirit of thinking globally and acting locally; considering the whole of society while making personal choices, SHE and I are doing more than our requested share of conserving, (our city is now shooting for at least a 20% reduction in use, restricting things like letting lawn sprinklers run on the sidewalk, leaving the hose running while washing the car, etc.) but I am thinking it might be good time to relocate from the oncoming dustbowl of the central valley to someplace like Puget Sound or BC.


Water Rights fights...coming soon to your local news media!

Fighting over water rights in California is at least as old as when Mark Twain was reporting for the Sacramento Call in the late 1800s. It's actually the fault of the Spanish settlers bringing cattle and horses and turning millions of acres of the naturally riparian central valley into grazing land. Our state legislature has just voted to manage well-water for the first time. My BIL is an engineer with his own successful water engineering company here. A lot of their clients are wineries and other high-volume water users. They spend a lot of time with lawyers complying with the rules governing water use. For instance, if you build a pond (not residential decorative garden-type ponds, but the kind used for watering livestock, for instance) on your private property, or have riverside property for farming, you can't just use the water on your land without a permit and without complying with the regs.

What I am concerned about is that our current drought isn't like what we have lived through in the past, I.E. a seasonal sort of thing that will be over until next year, but the new normal. Emergency-type dry for decades. And the water emergency for agriculture is not just in California. The same thing has been growing and festering in plains states with the mining of the Oglala aquifer.

ccmanuals
08-30-2014, 08:54 AM
Medina Lake is 4.0% full as of 2014-08-30.

http://i.imwx.com/web/2013/falcon-reservoir-2013-edit.jpg

Too Little Time
08-30-2014, 09:07 AM
Isn't it sort of a shame in this day and age of technical marvels that we haven't figured out how to regularly and cheaply turn some seawater into freshwater?

I heard that San Diego is building a $5 billion dollar plant to do just that. On the other side is a claim it is relatively cheap to control the leaks in the system and save 5 times the water that plant will provide.


I am sure that as the drought approaches people will adapt.

Jim Mahan
08-30-2014, 09:38 AM
No doubt a significant fraction of the population of SoCal will, eventually, get used to brown lawns, scerascaping and dusty cars. I think possibly an equal sized fraction will follow me and HER to someplace wetter.

It's also the case, as I understand it, that the larger navy ships, aircraft carriers operate desalinators. Certainly if we had the will vis-a-vis voting and taxation, we could install similar systems anywhere it makes sense.

Gerarddm
08-30-2014, 09:40 AM
#18 is boggling. Hard to think that can happen in just one year, though.

Glad I live in the Pacific Northwest.

ahp
08-30-2014, 10:36 AM
In some ways I am glad I am 82 years old. I won't be here when the worst hits, and it will. I am sorry for my children and grandchildren though.

Our house here on the Saint Simon's Island is in an "X Zone" which is good. We are 19 ft above mean sea level on the back side of the island. Sea Island will go first. That is where the 1% live. I suspect that in two or three centuries where I am will be an off shore sand bar, and our insurance agent agrees.

Nanoose
08-30-2014, 11:22 AM
And I look at pictures of your country and know why I settled back here, sweetie.

What Gerard said .. . and Jim, but I do wonder what we do when the seas run dry . . . and ahp, although he does have a few years on me.

isla
08-30-2014, 11:39 AM
It rains lumps?
Really?
When it really dumps, do the lumps form humps?You would be amazed. Cats and Dogs, sometimes buckets, and often, in my part of Scotland "hale watter".

Paul Girouard
08-30-2014, 11:50 AM
And I look at pictures of your country and know why I settled back here, sweetie.

What Gerard said .. . and Jim, but I do wonder what we do when the seas run dry . . . and ahp, although he does have a few years on me.


The seas as suppose to rise , not run dry , due to ice melt at the polar ice caps.

USN carrier's use evaporator to make fresh water , unless the newer models use desalination plants? On Ranger , Roosevelt and Lincoln we used evaporators.

Use of fresh / potable water when as follows,


#1: Catapults got all the fresh water they needed they where steam driven.

#2: Galley got water to process food.

#3: Ships crew got water for showers , if there was enough being made. If not "water hours" where instituted, fresh water for showers would be turned off except for one hour 0900 -1000 and 2100- 2200 for cruise showers , made the heads crowded, five minute "Navy showers" where the expected SOP , get wet , secure water, soap up, turn water on rinse off, get out of the shower so some one else could wash off..

If there wasn't enough water or the crew was deemed to be "wasting water" the fresh water was secured until the evaporator had made enough water for crew showers.

The toilets and urinals flushed with salt water.

People would waste water , go in ahead and turn on all the showers and sinks then leave with the water running. Some people like to make life hard for themselves and everyone else involved.

Jim Mahan
08-30-2014, 07:23 PM
^ Really, honest to God. Why is that the case? Life is plenty hard enough without someone deciding for whatever reason to make it harder for someone else.

StevenBauer
08-30-2014, 08:15 PM
[QUOTE=Jim Mahan;4274275]Still, all these major rivers are dumping fresh water into the sea at more or less the same rate as forever.

/QUOTE]


Not really true: http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/photos/rivers-run-dry/

Steven

Paul Girouard
08-30-2014, 09:42 PM
^ Really, honest to God. Why is that the case? Life is plenty hard enough without someone deciding for whatever reason to make it harder for someone else.


Some people like strife , they promote it in fact.