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cs
04-25-2014, 11:24 AM
When thinking about fossil fuels.

I mentioned the estimated time frame in another thread about when we will run out of fossil fuels but the topic was going other directions so I am bringing it here.

There is no doubt that fossil fuels will run out, the question is when and when will we reach peak and what happens after that. When I think of the time frame I think not at current consumption but rather as an exponential factor. Our rate of consumption increases daily. Think about the old adage of working for a penny a day double ever day. The first day you work for one penny, the next day 2 cents, the next 4 cents the next 8 cents. Within 28 days you are working for over $1.3 million a day. When you use this logic to our fossil fuel consumption you can begin to see just how quick we can run out.

So IMHO this is the biggest and most important looming crisis that needs to be thought not only now but a long time ago.

Chad

Flying Orca
04-25-2014, 11:27 AM
I've read that we hit peak production in 2010. Demand is increasing at about 6% per year. The math ain't pretty.

cs
04-25-2014, 11:31 AM
No the math isn't pretty. We may not run out of fossil fuels in my lifetime, but probably in my daughter's lifetime and almost certainly in my grandson's lifetime. It is up to us to find the answer.

While I may dream and wish I had a muscle car I look at the reality of it all and I'm doing everything I can to reduce my eco footprint, whether it be recycling or driving fuel efficient vehicles and reducing what I do expend.

Chad

ccmanuals
04-25-2014, 11:33 AM
I heard on the radio yesterday that the Eagle Ford Shale in S. Texas will produce more tar sand oil in the next 24 months than there is capacity in this country to refine it.

Peter Malcolm Jardine
04-25-2014, 11:45 AM
Well....I'm 55 years old....so the end is sure as hell closer than it was.

CWSmith
04-25-2014, 11:51 AM
When thinking about fossil fuels. ...

Chad

I think the answer lies in fracking. Is this not a desperate last-ditch attempt to get the last drop of oil at the expense of our drinking water?

willmarsh3
04-25-2014, 12:06 PM
Gasoline prices keep going up and up the last few months. And I see more people riding bikes. I see that trend accellerating over the next few years. I may be looking at one of those ELF cars sooner than I think.

cs
04-25-2014, 01:37 PM
Fuel efficiency is one of the top priorities every time I start thinking about another vehicle. If I can't afford or get an alternate fuel vehicle I will do the best I can to get the most fuel efficient vehicle that is within my budget.

Chad

LeeG
04-25-2014, 05:58 PM
When thinking about fossil fuels.

I mentioned the estimated time frame in another thread about when we will run out of fossil fuels but the topic was going other directions so I am bringing it here.

There is no doubt that fossil fuels will run out, the question is when and when will we reach peak and what happens after that. When I think of the time frame I think not at current consumption but rather as an exponential factor. Our rate of consumption increases daily. Think about the old adage of working for a penny a day double ever day. The first day you work for one penny, the next day 2 cents, the next 4 cents the next 8 cents. Within 28 days you are working for over $1.3 million a day. When you use this logic to our fossil fuel consumption you can begin to see just how quick we can run out.

So IMHO this is the biggest and most important looming crisis that needs to be thought not only now but a long time ago.

Chad

Chad, the problem isn't "running out" like the gas tank running empty but all the associated problems of increasing cost and inability to grow on debt from expanding energy wealth.. All this happens long before "running out". Oil, coal and natural gas have different timelines and infrastructure specific to each fuel.

Right now the difficulty is with oil, my gut sense is that low cost crude has peaked and the increases are in tight oil (fracked,deepwater, tar sands) that cannot satisfy our debt growth.

Our consumption of oil isn't increasing, it took a hit in 2008-10.

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/comarison-of-actual-and-expected-us-oil-consumption.png

LeeG
04-25-2014, 06:28 PM
No the math isn't pretty. We may not run out of fossil fuels in my lifetime, but probably in my daughter's lifetime and almost certainly in my grandson's lifetime. It is up to us to find the answer.


Chad

Again , "running out" is the wrong description. What we're running out of is the ability to afford increasing debt that comes with increasing energy supplies. It takes energy to build a house, a freeway, a more efficient house or a more efficient new vehicle. The problem is that we're burning up expensive oil in old machines when we should be using that new oil to build new higher efficiency machines. Right now we're not even funding bridge repairs from fuel taxes but using debt from the general fund because Americans don't want the fuel taxes raised. It's insane. Basically Americans are saying they no longer want to pay for the highways they drive on. Let it rot is what happens when Fed fuel taxes haven't been raised in 23yrs to keep up with inflation, let alone use revenue for rebuilding Americas infrastructure.
Denial isn't a river.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/us-has-63000-bridges-that-need-significant-repairs-local-governments-turn-to-congress/2014/04/24/17137338-cb24-11e3-a75e-463587891b57_story.html?tid=hpModule_308f7142-9199-11e2-bdea-e32ad90da239

Although there have been some dramatic bridge collapses in recent years, the 63,000 bridges judged structurally deficient are not all about to fall down. Bridges deemed on the verge of collapse are closed.

In a sense, the problem is more insidious than that. When budgets are tight, states and counties often have to put off repairs to bridges and roads. The traditional source they rely on for federal dollars — the Highway Trust Fund — is projected to run into the red this summer.

That has left state and local highway officials in limbo, waiting to see if Congress finds a new revenue source to supply the dollars they need. In some states, half of transportation funding comes from Washington, and until local officials know whether they can expect that to continue, they are loath to launch multi-year projects to renew or replace bridges and roadways.

“Over the last 15 years, state DOTs and local governments have been making significant investments to improve some of these bridges, but they simply don’t have enough funding to address the problem,” Black said.

cs
04-25-2014, 07:32 PM
No I think running out is the right word. Sure we have all the other problems that will come in advance of that time, but run out we will. For all practical purposes fossil fuels are a finite resource. By definition that means there is only so much of it and when it is gone it is gone.

Oil consumption may have dropped during that time frame. I'm on my phone so I can't really check that out right now, but don't be fooled. Consumption will continue to rise at an exponential rate. As population increases and more and more people are consuming we will run out and I think sooner rather than later. Seems like I read somewhere about how just in China alone the consumption will be unimaginable.

Chad

oznabrag
04-25-2014, 07:36 PM
Yes, of course.

The end is ALWAYS nearer than we think.

cs
04-25-2014, 07:48 PM
BTW Lee when I talk about this I am talking about the whole world not just the US who is the largest consumer of crude. I understand we use about 25% of the world's total. In 2010 there was a world increase of 3.1%.

Chad

LeeG
04-25-2014, 08:07 PM
Oil consumption may have dropped during that time frame. I'm on my phone so I can't really check that out right now, but don't be fooled. Consumption will continue to rise at an exponential rate. As population increases and more and more people are consuming we will run out and I think sooner rather than later. Seems like I read somewhere about how just in China alone the consumption will be unimaginable.

Chad

Chad, consumption of oil is rising in the world at a declining exponential rate, in the US it isn't rising at all. China is able to purchase oil at nearly any price but we cannot. Here's another take on declining rates of increase, oil exporters are increasing internal consumption at a higher rate of any gross production so net exports are less. Total world production could be inching up but oil available to buy on the world market has declined for the last 7 years. So long before the world "runs out" we are running out of imports we can afford.

PeterSibley
04-25-2014, 08:17 PM
Gasoline prices keep going up and up the last few months. And I see more people riding bikes. I see that trend accellerating over the next few years. I may be looking at one of those ELF cars sooner than I think.

Your gas price is still half ours .....

Waddie
04-25-2014, 09:08 PM
We spend about the same on infrastructure as Europe does, for about the same geographic area and population. However, a decade ago we spent even more, so I guess you could call that a cut. I'm not ready to spend any more on "infrastructure", which will be paid for by following generations, until this country has an actual energy policy that coordinates what we rebuild and why how that project fits into an overall improvement plan.

We have overbuilt the road system and now are at a point where just the maintenance on all of it is unsustainable. And do we really want to encourage even more usage by private autos and more 18 wheelers on the roadways? We need to really think about what kind of transportation system we want 50 years from now, and spend on that, instead of simply doing the same old same old, filling potholes and building more miles. Leave our kids something they can really use.

regards,
Waddie

Chip-skiff
04-25-2014, 09:25 PM
I gave up hope when Mr. Reagan had the solar panels taken off the White House roof— the idea that being an energy hog is patriotic has persisted among the knuckle-dragging contingent and is still pervasive. Right-wing oligarchs such as the management of Exxon/Mobil and the infamous Koch brothers are still spending billions to fight energy conservation and the lessening of toxic pollution.

Despite giving up hope on any genuine commitment by the US government to alt energy and a decrease in carbon output, I've worked on my own living arrangements with considerable success. That is, I did not give up on my contribution to the problem. I gave up on most of you.

LeeG
04-26-2014, 09:28 AM
Chad, here's something to consider is that what is being called "oil" is a lot of other things than crude. Consequently when US production of fracked oil took off so did natural gas liquids but the problem is that you don't make transportation fuels out of NGL.
While "the end" of oil isn't near at all the end of cheap oil has passed.


http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-04-13/did-crude-oil-production-actually-peak-in-2005

Here is a key fact that casts doubt on the official reporting: When the industry and the government talk about the price of oil sold on world markets and traded on futures exchanges, they mean one thing. But, when they talk about the total production of oil, they actually mean something quite different--namely, a much broader category that includes all kinds of things that are simply not oil and that could never be sold on the world market as oil.
I've written about this issue of the true definition of oil before. But Texas oilman Jeffrey Brown has been bending my ear recently about looking even deeper into the issue. He makes a major clarifying point: If what you're selling cannot be sold on the world market as crude oil, then it's not crude oil. It's such a simple and obvious point that I'm ashamed to have missed it. And, Brown believes that if we could find data that separates all these other non-crude oil things out, the remaining worldwide production number for crude oil alone would be flat to down from 2005 onward.
Brown says the current dual approach to price and supply is like asking the butcher the price of steak, and then, instead of finding out how much steak he has to sell, you inquire about how much beef in total he has on hand--which will, of course, include roasts and ground meat. And, then you proceed to calculate the butcher's total supply of steak by lumping everything together and simply calling it steak.
"Basically, crude oil peaked [in 2005], but natural gas and natural gas liquids [including lease condensate] didn't," he believes. Natural gas production has continued to grow, and as it has, its coproducts have also grown--many of which have been lumped in with the oil production statistics.

CK 17
04-27-2014, 09:12 AM
I think any attempt to use less fossil fuels is just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. The real issue is over population.

LeeG
04-27-2014, 09:35 AM
I think any attempt to use less fossil fuels is just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. The real issue is over population.

Given that voluntary depopulation is unlikely a reasonable direction with regards to oil depletion is voluntary depowering, but reshuffling chairs is the prefered method there as well.

Flying Orca
04-27-2014, 11:07 AM
Given that voluntary depopulation is unlikely a reasonable direction with regards to oil depletion is voluntary depowering, but reshuffling chairs is the prefered method there as well.

Granted, but I'm reminded of Lindsay Grant's aphorism: "If we don't manage our fertility, nature will manage our mortality." Nature doesn't shuffle chairs...

Gerarddm
04-27-2014, 03:00 PM
#17: I worked for the company that installed the solar HW system on the White House when it happened. It SO angered me when David Stockman advised Reagan to get rid of them as being "non-economic". It was a simple pander to the fossil fuel oligarchy, and that it had been installed on Carter's watch. Bah. :-(

Paul Girouard
04-27-2014, 03:16 PM
No ones going to go off on the use of fossil fuel?

Gerard how about some Solindra (sp) stock?

elf
04-27-2014, 04:04 PM
Read this:

http://www.thenation.com/article/179461/new-abolitionism

LeeG
04-27-2014, 04:17 PM
No ones going to go off on the use of fossil fuel?

Gerard how about some Solindra (sp) stock?

Between "off" and what you can afford now (with hidden costs later) is a wide range. Unfortunately not preparing for a known eventuality of oil depletion leaves us at the mercy of forces outside our control. CAFE is part of the problem, not a solution.

willmarsh3
04-27-2014, 11:06 PM
Your gas price is still half ours .....

http://www.numbeo.com/gas-prices/city_result.jsp?country=Australia&city=Sydney&displayCurrency=USD

Here $3.55, Sydney $5.26 once you convert liters to gallons and Australian dollars to US. Obviously this has a lot to do with tariffs, road taxes and other things. Also differences in vehicles, miles driven, etc. Gas prices are a bit higher in Canada and a lot higher in Scotland. US gas prices were around $1.20 / gallon up until early 2000s. In late 2008 they briefly dipped to $1.55 / gallon. But I doubt we will see these prices again.