PDA

View Full Version : Deadly landslide near Seattle, is everyone OK?



MiddleAgesMan
03-23-2014, 09:46 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/us/washington-landslide/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

Gerarddm
03-23-2014, 09:49 AM
Happened in the boonies near Darrington. I don't think anyone here on the board lives near there.

WA State gets its share of mudslides due to our rain, occasionally fatal. Sad.

ron ll
03-23-2014, 11:19 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjYM8RVCEAEz9Rf.jpg

Three known dead, may be more trapped under. Big problem is that it dammed a river, threat of flash flood downstream if it breaks suddenly.

Paul Girouard
03-23-2014, 11:24 AM
Happened in the boonies near Darrington. I don't think anyone here on the board lives near there.

WA State gets its share of mudslides due to our rain, occasionally fatal. Sad.

There's one guy who lives up that way , Randy maybe is his name , I bet Lew remember's his name. He's gone to Port Townsend and a couple of the Seattle shows , I met him on Lew's "Rita" down at the CFWB show 6 or 7 years ago. He's a machinist by trade, had moved here from the middle of the country , he was living by Arlington at one point , he should be below the slide area. Highly unlikely he's involved in this slide, but remotely possible.

ron ll
03-23-2014, 11:32 AM
The river will find a new way to get to the sea. Whether it does it quickly or gradually is the big question.

Lew Barrett
03-23-2014, 11:42 AM
Paul, I'm not sure I remember who that might have been but although it was a big slide with terrible consequences for a few people, there were "only" about six houses taken out. Sad if if you or yours were among them, but relatively localized damage from what I've read.

There's a lot of unstable ground around here.

LeeG
03-23-2014, 12:04 PM
Large area looking at the other pics

Jim Bow
03-23-2014, 12:17 PM
Press conference just concluded. There could be a lot more casualties. Emer Mgt guy said that screams for help were heard last night, but responders could not get near the source because the mud had the consistency of a thick milkshake and was constantly moving.
They also have no idea how many cars were on the roadway.

If I recall correctly, that was early 20th century coal mining country. Wonder if those old mines have any play in this landslide.

ron ll
03-23-2014, 12:29 PM
Did all that go at once, or has that area been working over the past few years?

Three seconds for most of it, no warning. 18 people at least still missing.

Paul Girouard
03-23-2014, 01:51 PM
Paul, I'm not sure I remember who that might have been but although it was a big slide with terrible consequences for a few people, there were "only" about six houses taken out. Sad if if you or yours were among them, but relatively localized damage from what I've read.

There's a lot of unstable ground around here.

He was a small boat guy , I know you'd remember him if I could find a thread with his photo , he generally camped out at Port Townsend, maybe James would remember him?

BETTY-B
03-23-2014, 02:07 PM
It's definitely sad about the loss of life, but it's also a shame about the Stilly. It will be very hard on the steelhead. Let's hope the fisheries has the balls to shut that one down for awhile.

ron ll
03-23-2014, 02:14 PM
Slide area is said to be about one square mile and up to 60' deep in places. They are now saying it wiped out one whole neighborhood of 25 - 30 homes. The water is still backing up behind it and rescuers cannot get out on it as it is still moving and like quicksand. Could be many more casualties than known so far.

Paul Girouard
03-23-2014, 02:15 PM
It's definitely sad about the loss of life, but it's also a shame about the Stilly. It will be very hard on the steelhead. Let's hope the fisheries has the balls to shut that one down for awhile.

Ya it's gonna be a mess for quite awhile , until the river works out where it wants to be , and man "helps" out with the course. Hopefully "we" won't force the river into finding it's route , if we do a longer battle will be fought to make the man way course work out.

David G
03-23-2014, 02:37 PM
The clay soil we have around here will plasticize when sufficiently saturated. The terrain is often steep. Slides are not uncommon. The road to our favorite surfing beach, near Cannon Beach, was often out due to slides. That was definitely a big one, though. My best wishes go out to all involved.

LeeG
03-23-2014, 04:21 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjYW3sDCMAE6foq.jpg:large

Lew Barrett
03-23-2014, 05:49 PM
That image is shocking.

Paul Girouard
03-23-2014, 05:55 PM
That image is shocking.


Makes the one at central Whidbey look small!

Thinking about it and taking the pressure off , I think Garry's the guys name , I was searching for, does that ring a bell?

seanz
03-23-2014, 05:59 PM
Slide area is said to be about one square mile and up to 60' deep in places. They are now saying it wiped out one whole neighborhood of 25 - 30 homes. The water is still backing up behind it and rescuers cannot get out on it as it is still moving and like quicksand. Could be many more casualties than known so far.

Good grief.

Old workings can really bite hard.

Chip-skiff
03-23-2014, 06:05 PM
Similar to the Gros Ventre slide in Wyoming, although far smaller.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4f/Gros_Venture_Slide.JPG/545px-Gros_Venture_Slide.JPG

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Ventre_landslide

The water that built up behind the slide broke through and flooded the town of Kelly, WY. The town of Jackson was located to avoid flood hazard.

The Bigfella
03-23-2014, 06:55 PM
I hope those trapped are released soon. Best wishes to them and to the families of those that didn't make it.

Phillip Allen
03-23-2014, 07:34 PM
Paul, I'm not sure I remember who that might have been but although it was a big slide with terrible consequences for a few people, there were "only" about six houses taken out. Sad if if you or yours were among them, but relatively localized damage from what I've read.

There's a lot of unstable ground around here.

so much for building codes, I guess

Jim Bow
03-23-2014, 07:37 PM
There's a huge Naval communications station about 10 miles south of there, It broadcasts to submerged submarines. Huge antennas that stretch across a large valley.
That makes it ripe for conspiracy theorists. Maybe EMF caused the slide.

Lew Barrett
03-23-2014, 07:55 PM
The news just keeps getting worse.

Gerarddm
03-23-2014, 08:46 PM
There's a huge Naval communications station about 10 miles south of there, It broadcasts to submerged submarines. Huge antennas that stretch across a large valley.
That makes it ripe for conspiracy theorists. Maybe EMF caused the slide.

Yes, HAARP and all that.

March has had a LOT of rain, and more importantly it has come in deluges, supersaturating the earth.

Jim Bow
03-23-2014, 08:59 PM
Yes, HAARP and all that.

Submarine communications is Super Low Frequency. The "H" in HAARP stands for high frequency.

LeeG
03-23-2014, 09:31 PM
There's a huge Naval communications station about 10 miles south of there, It broadcasts to submerged submarines. Huge antennas that stretch across a large valley.
That makes it ripe for conspiracy theorists. Maybe EMF caused the slide.

I'm wondering if there's something about the landscape above the slide that allowed more water to saturate the hillside more than usual, not that mudslides aren't a natural occurrence but I remember a mudslide happening below a clear cut area in California where heavy rains brought it down to the Navarro River.

Chip-skiff
03-23-2014, 11:54 PM
That doesn't look like a mudslide: there's a definite wall at the top with quite a few layers exposed. It looks as if water got into a porous zone between formations until the bond was overcome by gravity and/or a quake.

Gerarddm
03-24-2014, 01:21 AM
I understand about sub comm, Jim. It is just that usually, HAARP is the go-to weather conspiracy theory.

Local news tonight said we have had 200% of normal March rainfall so far, 3rd wettest March on record.

skuthorp
03-24-2014, 04:34 AM
"3rd wettest March on record."
And ours has been as dry as a dead dingo's don……….. Well you know what I mean.

Ian McColgin
03-24-2014, 07:09 AM
One of the more heartbreaking decisions the sheriff of Snohomish County had to make was ordering rescuers out when they could hear people trapped in the mud crying out. One baby was rescued but the difficulty and immanent danger of that rescue showed that unless the land stabilized, rescue attempts would be in reality adding casualties. The ground won't be likely to settle until the debris dam breaks and there's further flood disaster down stream.

The geology of the Cascades makes slides of this sort a very present risk and we're building more and more onto slopes like this that really cannot be risk surveyed. Lucky for people that the super majority of these slides are much much smaller.

Lew Barrett
03-24-2014, 08:46 AM
Makes the one at central Whidbey look small!

Thinking about it and taking the pressure off , I think Garry's the guys name , I was searching for, does that ring a bell?
Gary Schollmeyer (might have the spelling wrong). I think we're on the track there. Gary worked at CWB as well if I recall.

JBreeze
03-24-2014, 09:10 AM
There is another WBF poster (Spokaloo(?)) who I thought was from Snohomish....he stayed out of the bilge (smart guy). Anyone know him?

JBreeze
03-24-2014, 09:28 AM
There is another WBF poster (Spokaloo(?)) who I thought was from Snohomish....he stayed out of the bilge (smart guy). Anyone know him?


I looked up his profile...it says Spokane now....I would have sworn it was Snohomish at one time. Sorry.

ron ll
03-24-2014, 10:11 AM
There is another WBF poster (Spokaloo(?)) who I thought was from Snohomish....he stayed out of the bilge (smart guy). Anyone know him?

Altho the slide was in Snohomish County, it was quite a ways from the town of Snohomish. Gerarddm used to list Snohomish as his location and I spent many years in Snohomish. The Snohomish river runs thru the town of Snohomish, but the slide was on the Stillaguamish river. Confusing, I know. And Spokaloo is a common nickname for the city of Spokane which is way on the other side of the state closer to Idaho.

ron ll
03-24-2014, 11:40 AM
They now are saying 108 people still missing in the slide area. Given that about 30 homes and a highway were buried, I thought there initial estimates of missing were low. Hopefully some of those people were away and just haven't checked in yet.

Lew Barrett
03-24-2014, 11:49 AM
That doesn't look like a mudslide: there's a definite wall at the top with quite a few layers exposed. It looks as if water got into a porous zone between formations until the bond was overcome by gravity and/or a quake.

The last news blurb suggested this is not the first big slide there. I think your overall assessment is pretty much what the initial reports are indicating.

ron ll
03-24-2014, 12:05 PM
Altho I can't find it now, I thought I read in one report that there was an old quarry on that site. Anybody see anything about that?

BETTY-B
03-24-2014, 12:26 PM
Altho the slide was in Snohomish County, it was quite a ways from the town of Snohomish. Gerarddm used to list Snohomish as his location and I spent many years in Snohomish. The Snohomish river runs thru the town of Snohomish, but the slide was on the Skykomish river. Confusing, I know. .

Just to confuse things further, the slide wasn't on the Sky, it was on the Stillaguamish.

ron ll
03-24-2014, 12:53 PM
Just to confuse things further, the slide wasn't on the Sky, it was on the Stillaguamish.

Ahhhh. My mistake. I'll correct that.

seanz
03-24-2014, 01:21 PM
F me. 108 missing.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/world/9863321/Cries-for-help-stop-in-mudslide

varadero
03-25-2014, 03:31 AM
I just read 200 missing and 14 bodies found.

ron ll
03-25-2014, 10:46 AM
They are admitting their lists of missing may be wildly inaccurate at this point. There are probably many duplications, they are trying to get that sorted out.

Lew Barrett
03-25-2014, 11:28 AM
The site was a known problem area. It seems that this (perhaps not the full scope of the tragedy) was not entirely unexpected.

Seattle Times
(http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023211509_mudslidehistoryxml.html)

Gerarddm
03-25-2014, 11:58 AM
Just read an article that said engineers had worked to stabilize the site after an earlier slide several years ago and that they thought it was pretty OK. This slide simply caught everybody by surprise.

This is a fairly depopulated area. I can only imagine the horror and death toll from a large scale version of this, i.e. a lahar flow if/when Mount Rainier erupts.

Chip-skiff
03-25-2014, 06:43 PM
The slip-face at the top shows distinct layers, so it's not simply a mudslide. One report mentioned "glacial deposits." I've not seen a technical description yet, but am guessing that it involves water infiltration between depositional layers, with an abrupt slope failure, basically gravity overcoming the frictional force that held all those layers on the slope.

Fascinating, but also quite hard to predict and deadly if you happen to be in the runout.

J P
03-25-2014, 07:19 PM
Similar to the Gros Ventre slide in Wyoming, although far smaller.

The water that built up behind the slide broke through and flooded the town of Kelly, WY. The town of Jackson was located to avoid flood hazard.

Reminds me of the slide on Thunder Mountain, Idaho in 1909. 2 1/2-3 mile long slide that dammed Monumental creek and flooded the mining town of Roosevelt under 30 feet of water. Roosevelt lake is still there. Moved slow enough that folks had time to get out and there were no injuries. I think that one was attributed to the mining activity.

Interesting, I've always wondered why Jackson was located where it is. Figured it was something from the rendezvous days. Now days, money would locate it where the views are best, and nature be damned.

Paul Girouard
03-26-2014, 12:28 AM
Grim work.


Updated: 9:01 p.m. Tuesday, March 25, 2014 | Posted: 6:27 p.m. Tuesday, March 25, 2014



24 believed dead in Oso landslide

ARLINGTON, Wash. Authorities in Arlington say the bodies of two more victims were recovered at the site of the Oso landslide Tuesday, but eight more were found that have yet to be retrieved, bringing the unofficial death toll to 24.

Phillip Allen
03-26-2014, 03:42 AM
The site was a known problem area. It seems that this (perhaps not the full scope of the tragedy) was not entirely unexpected.

Seattle Times
(http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023211509_mudslidehistoryxml.html)

if so, then I remind us of building codes

skuthorp
03-26-2014, 04:32 AM
Nothing to do with building codes, zoning perhaps considering the area was known to be unstable. Either the geological advice was ignored by the authority that allowed the zoning or someone somewhere managed to get it overturned. I wonder if any of the houses were able to be insured?

Phillip Allen
03-26-2014, 04:33 AM
Nothing to do with building codes, zoning perhaps considering the area was known to be unstable. Either the geological advice was ignored by the authority that allowed the zoning or someone somewhere managed to get it overturned. I wonder if any of the houses were able to be insured?

alright then... zoning

it's not important to me what it gets called... if the problem was known then homes and businesses should not have been built there

skuthorp
03-26-2014, 04:36 AM
I imagine Phillip that all that will be looked at as they look for someone to blame. Of course we may not get to hear it all the shredders will have been working overtime from the minute the news hit the screen.

Phillip Allen
03-26-2014, 04:38 AM
I imagine Phillip that all that will be looked at as they look for someone to blame. Of course we may not get to hear it all.

well, it's too bad the slide happened and I'm sorry for the injuries and loss of life... I still wonder where greed plays into this though

skuthorp
03-26-2014, 04:40 AM
well, it's too bad the slide happened and I'm sorry for the injuries and loss of life... I still wonder where greed plays into this though

Maybe not greed actually, sometimes people go to extraordinary lengths against all advice to build where they want. We have similar problems with bushfire prone areas here. Once one permit is issued, then another will be soon.

Phillip Allen
03-26-2014, 04:41 AM
Pardon me... Sorry to take it out on you, Phillip. I'm waiting to hear from two old Seattle friends that I had no idea live right there until late this evening. No children between them.

I hope your worries turn out to be unfounded... for your friends sake

Phillip Allen
03-26-2014, 04:43 AM
Maybe not greed actually, sometimes people go to extraordinary lengths against all advice to build where they want. We have similar problems with bushfire prone areas here. Once one permit is issued, then another will be soon.

I'm actually thinking of government wanting to expand its tax base

skuthorp
03-26-2014, 05:04 AM
I'm actually thinking of government wanting to expand its tax base
Surely their insurers would have knocked it on the head?

Gerarddm
03-26-2014, 10:07 AM
People build in flood zones, in tornado alleys... It's the human condition.

Not a good weather forecast in the slide area, alas. 2.5" of rain over the next 4 days, mainly concentrated on Friday and Saturday.

the_gr8t_waldo
03-26-2014, 10:19 AM
The overwhelming number of homes in the area are built by the people that end up living in them....greed? Well if it's greedy to want to live in a nice place, well then there is a "greed" going on there! There's a strange notion that's gained traction in this state that, people have a right to do with their property as they please. It's not absolute but there has to be a very strong overriding reason to over ride this right. Perplexing that only someone would even consider making government stronger in order to force it's will over property owners.

Lew Barrett
03-26-2014, 10:45 AM
People build in flood zones, in tornado alleys... It's the human condition.


I agree.

The area is mountainous and has been logged and mined on and off over the years. This is in addition to any natural instability and the inevitable geological changes that come with time, coupled with the "seismic" nature of the entire west coast. People balance this against their desires to live where it is attractive to them. I believe there are very few sites that don't suffer from some sort of threat. It could be drought, weather, flood, geological issues or some combination of the lot.

I don't know that there is anybody to blame. It's fair to assume at this point that people built where there was some risk because that's what their circumstances or desires dictated. It's true that the area had been under surveillance for many years, but equally, it's been populated (albeit sparser than the metropolitan area) for many years. At this point isn't it best to call it a natural tragedy rather than hunting for the guilty? The problem might simply be that people opted to build there many years ago and once in, it is difficult to leave.

BETTY-B
03-26-2014, 04:14 PM
I finally just received word that a dear old friend that lives very near there is indeed okay. A couple of other friends here in Seattle started to whip ourselves into a near frenzy over it when he wouldn't respond to anyone.

So sad. They are finding very little. Virtually nothing in the slide area except on the southern edge.

Here's a interactive map that clearly shows the devastation:

http://seattletimes.com/flatpages/local/interactivebeforeandafterthe530mudslide.html

seanz
03-26-2014, 04:23 PM
The overwhelming number of homes in the area are built by the people that end up living in them....greed? Well if it's greedy to want to live in a nice place, well then there is a "greed" going on there! There's a strange notion that's gained traction in this state that, people have a right to do with their property as they please. It's not absolute but there has to be a very strong overriding reason to over ride this right. Perplexing that only someone would even consider making government stronger in order to force it's will over property owners.

Not that I know the specifics of development in this area, or if a slip of this scale could be foreseen for that particular slope......but.....property developers can be very insistent that land is parceled up for sale (and profit) even though there are known issues.
Or so I've noticed.
:)


I agree.

The area is mountainous and has been logged and mined on and off over the years. This is in addition to any natural instability and the inevitable geological changes that come with time, coupled with the "seismic" nature of the entire west coast. People balance this against their desires to live where it is attractive to them. I believe there are very few sites that don't suffer from some sort of threat. It could be drought, weather, flood, geological issues or some combination of the lot.

I don't know that there is anybody to blame. It's fair to assume at this point that people built where there was some risk because that's what their circumstances or desires dictated. It's true that the area had been under surveillance for many years, but equally, it's been populated (albeit sparser than the metropolitan area) for many years. At this point isn't it best to call it a natural tragedy rather than hunting for the guilty? The problem might simply be that people opted to build there many years ago and once in, it is difficult to leave.

I'd like to move to a safe part of the world that doesn't have natural disasters, still looking.
;)

Lew Barrett
03-27-2014, 11:05 AM
I'd like to move to a safe part of the world that doesn't have natural disasters, still looking.
;)

We constantly talk about finding a great, relatively secure place to live (with good restaurants) somewhere on the planet and keep coming up empty! We're all in it together, it seems.

Lew Barrett
03-27-2014, 02:03 PM
The latest in respect to cause is that a logging company clear cut an unauthorized area.

Link (http://kuow.org/post/concern-over-landslide-logging-connection-near-oso-decades-old)

Nanoose
03-27-2014, 09:41 PM
Image showing the affected area both before/after the slide

http://imgur.com/r/pics/gJH9m5k