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genglandoh
01-23-2014, 04:27 PM
1. The Ukraine is having civil unrest.
2. The unrest is spreading outside the capital.
3. The western powers are weak.
4. The Russian Foreign Minister is blaming the EU for the problems.

Russia's Sergei Lavrov: Ukraine getting 'out of control'
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that protests in Ukraine are "getting out of control".
He described violent clashes between anti-government protesters and police as "scary" and accused EU politicians of stirring up the situation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25823091


What do you think?

bogdog
01-23-2014, 05:05 PM
Of course they will what with the Sochi Olympics right around the corner.

Rich Jones
01-23-2014, 05:37 PM
If there is a terrorist attack that makes Putin's security measures (and him) look bad, Putin will go in there and level the place.

wardd
01-23-2014, 05:47 PM
another benghazi

skuthorp
01-23-2014, 06:03 PM
Eh?
It's about spheres of influence and buffer states for Putin, just as it always is. Why do you think the US got so upset by Cuba? And invaded Panama? (And I do remember the missile crisis)

wardd
01-23-2014, 06:43 PM
Eh?
It's about spheres of influence and buffer states for Putin, just as it always is. Why do you think the US got so upset by Cuba? And invaded Panama? (And I do remember the missile crisis)

putin is a later day mussolini

Ted Hoppe
01-23-2014, 06:54 PM
A terrorist attack at Sochi would give Putin a United Nations santioned Cart Blanche blow upon the islamic insergents 7 terrorist which are crowding ural caucasus regions. The western media is already fearful of the famed black widows.

Gerarddm
01-23-2014, 08:15 PM
No. All hell would break loose for him internationally.


Cease fire today, BTW.

Joe Dupere
01-23-2014, 09:16 PM
I'm sure if he does, it'll make Obama look bad somehow. So it's a win-win for Putin and the American reds.

PeterSibley
01-24-2014, 01:27 AM
A terrorist attack at Sochi would give Putin a United Nations santioned Cart Blanche blow upon the islamic insergents 7 terrorist which are crowding ural caucasus regions. The western media is already fearful of the famed black widows.

I don't think he needs any excuse to do that, the Russians have been killing "insurgents"( or perhaps you could call them defenders of their respective homelands?) for the last 20 years. The black widows are an entirely predictable response from people who have been hammered for generations.

Full Tilt
01-24-2014, 02:32 AM
Where do rioters in Kiev get aluminum baseball bats?

https://02varvara.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/00-kiev-riots-20-01-14.jpg%3Fw%3D1200%26h%3D900

PeterSibley
01-24-2014, 02:34 AM
I can see one, perhaps he plays base ball?

Waddie
01-24-2014, 02:35 AM
Before you rush to judgement, read some of the Stratfor articles on that part of the world. It's worse than the Middle East with all the different ethnic groups, religious beliefs and age old animosities. Putin is more along the lines of a strong man. We hate those types, but they often keep the lid on which is what most of the people want more than "democracy", whatever that would mean in their neck of the woods. If Russia were to disappear tomorrow the power vacuum left behind would make the conflicts in the Middle East look like pillow fights.

regards,
Waddie

skuthorp
01-24-2014, 04:32 AM
Putin sending the army in would just kill a lot of innocent people, make more refugees and more resistance fighters/terrorists*. But I don't expect that to deter him.

(* depends which side you support)

Duncan Gibbs
01-24-2014, 07:18 AM
No, in a word.

Ukraine has no separatist regions within its borders and the aside from any troops along the common border with Russia there are 1200 14th Russian Army troops and about 22,000 tonnes of ammunition within the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria which borders the Ukraine. Their primary concern is to keep the Moldovan army at bay and maintain the region from rule by Moldova.

The political and economic price for Russia would be absurdly high and Putin would, in all likelihood, be kicked out on the back of such consequences. Putin may be a ruthless bastard, but he's not a stupid one.

Paul Pless
01-24-2014, 07:26 AM
Before you rush to judgement, read some of the Stratfor articles on that part of the world. It's worse than the Middle East with all the different ethnic groups, religious beliefs and age old animosities. I thought we we're talking about the Ukraine here, right?

slug
01-24-2014, 07:43 AM
The Ukraine is half russian ,half european. Complex. The protests are all about the rejection of the bad habits inherited from Russian style government. The youth believes that aligning Ukraine with Europe will reform government and bring prosperity.

A problem is that the Ukraine can never be European, they have to many trade and industrial links with Russia. If they break these links their economy will collapse. There is no way that Europe could come to the rescue.

the protesters would be best to cool off and use the next elections to bring reformist leaders to power.

In the perfect world Ukraine would become a neutral country that enjoys trade benefits with both russia and Europe.

To pull this off your need very good government institutions.

Duncan Gibbs
01-24-2014, 07:46 AM
I don't think people quite understand the actual size of the Black Sea Paul and the location of the Ukraine on the other side of it from Georgia, nor the relative size of Georgia compared to the Ukraine both geographically and militarily, along with the fact the Ukraine holds military exercises with NATO and contributed forces in Iraq and peacekeepers to the Balkans, nor the fact that Ukraine is pretty much white and Christian/Atheist demographically. And it borders the EU...

Keith Wilson
01-24-2014, 08:02 AM
Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?No. I have no illusions about Mr. Putin's benevolence, but he isn't stupid. He can get some of what he wants by subtler means, and the risk would be very, very high.

slug
01-24-2014, 08:13 AM
Russia will send its debt collectors.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-24-2014, 09:23 AM
Russia will send its debt collectors.

That's too complicated: Russia will just turn off the gas. It's winter...

bamamick
01-24-2014, 09:29 AM
I agree, Andrew. I think that's what's behind all of this anyway. Russia doesn't have to send soldiers to the Ukraine, and the people protesting need to understand that Ukraine pretty much HAS to do what Putin wants whether they want it to be that way or not.

The question now is how long before ALL of a large chunk of Europe has to do the same, compliments of Gazprom.

Mickey Lake

slug
01-24-2014, 09:57 AM
Ukraine needs to position itself as a gateway for Russian products into Europe and as a gateway for European products into Russia , with no military alliances.

George.
01-24-2014, 11:19 AM
Ukraine = Poland 1939?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-24-2014, 11:58 AM
Who will play the part of Germany?

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
01-24-2014, 12:15 PM
Ukraine needs to position itself as a gateway for Russian products into Europe and as a gateway for European products into Russia , with no military alliances.

Like switzerland without the lumps.....

Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-24-2014, 12:39 PM
Like switzerland without the lumps.....

No, that role is already taken:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore

slug
01-24-2014, 12:43 PM
Or Finland, Sweden

slug
01-24-2014, 12:49 PM
What is the Chinese position ?

"Under the 50-year plan, China would eventually control three million hectares, an area equivalent to Belgium or Massachusetts, which represents nine per cent of Ukraine's arable land. Initially 100,000 hectares would be leased."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10332007/China-to-rent-five-per-cent-of-Ukraine.html

Osborne Russell
01-24-2014, 01:13 PM
another benghazi

I'm certain the Obama administration and the mainstream media are not telling the whole truth to the American people; only Fox is.

SMARTINSEN
01-24-2014, 06:32 PM
It is "Ukraine," not "the Ukraine." It would be like saying the Poland, or the Russia.

/pedant

genglandoh
02-12-2014, 06:22 AM
Russia may already have troops in the Ukraine

"And everyone knows that some of (the Russian troops) are already here, but nobody wants to speak openly about it because nobody wants to fight our brothers," she said, referring to a widespread belief that members of the Russian military make up the police force and hired provocateurs trying to sabotage and subdue the protests.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/06/ukraine-protests-russia-military-threats/5259777/

Russian Troops Arriving in Ukraine to Battle Protesters
http://intellihub.com/russian-troops-arriving-in-ukraine-to-battle-protesters/

Gerarddm
02-12-2014, 11:48 AM
^ " Embargo! "

slug
02-12-2014, 12:05 PM
Russia has always had troops in Ukraine..

Sevastopol...similar to the American Gitmo.

http://www.diploweb.com/Russia-s-Black-Sea-fleet-in.html

genglandoh
02-18-2014, 06:03 PM
Things are heating up.

Ukraine president to make announcement after at least 19 die in protests
Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Long-simmering tensions exploded anew in Ukraine as clashes between police and anti-government protesters left at least 19 people dead and the capital's central square afire into early Wednesday.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/18/world/europe/ukraine-protests/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

bobbys
02-19-2014, 09:08 PM
Where do rioters in Kiev get aluminum baseball bats?

https://02varvara.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/00-kiev-riots-20-01-14.jpg%3Fw%3D1200%26h%3D900.

From college teams?

LeeG
02-19-2014, 10:36 PM
And shoes, where do they get shoes!

Gerarddm
02-19-2014, 10:37 PM
Putin MAY do something foolish when the Olympics are over, but I think he'd bring down the wrath of the UN if he was so ill-advised to do so.

genglandoh
02-20-2014, 11:09 AM
Just before the start of WWII the Germans used this strategy to take over a few countries.


Send in some special forces to cause internal riots in a neighboring country.
After the riots get going and is in the News send in troops to help keep the peace.

This was done in Austria and Czechoslovakia.

genglandoh
02-20-2014, 11:15 AM
Putin MAY do something foolish when the Olympics are over, but I think he'd bring down the wrath of the UN if he was so ill-advised to do so.

What do you think the UN would do to Russia if they sent troops into The Ukraine?

Gerarddm
02-20-2014, 11:24 AM
Given the history of previous incitements above, and the example of Russian intervention in Afghanistan, I would think the UN would react strongly to Russian involvement to any purported 'request' by the government. Sanctions, economic boycotts, diplomatic shunning. UN miltary reply? No.

slug
02-20-2014, 11:26 AM
The russian economy is in bad shape. Resource based with Lack of foreign investment.

Aggressive action in Ukraine that upsets the international community will not bring foriegn investment to Russia.

Ukraine is also a major route for russian gas into europe. Destablizing this pipeline would not benfit Russia.


http://s30.postimg.org/4u0zbw9s1/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
hosting imagenes (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)

genglandoh
02-20-2014, 11:37 AM
The russian economy is in bad shape. Resource based with Lack of foreign investment.

Aggressive action in Ukraine that upsets the international community will not bring foriegn investment to Russia.

Ukraine is also a major route for russian gas into europe. Destablizing this pipeline would not benfit Russia.

hosting imagenes (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)

This gives Russia the perfect excuse to send troops into the Ukraine.
They can argue they are just protecting the pipelines.

Gerarddm
02-20-2014, 11:39 AM
The pipelines are Ukrainian, not Russian. The UN knows the difference.

genglandoh
02-20-2014, 11:57 AM
The pipelines are Ukrainian, not Russian. The UN knows the difference.

You are missing the point It does not matter who owns the pipelines.

Russia could make it look like they are the good guy in protecting Europe’s energy supply and saving the world from another depression.

If the EU or the UN complains then Russia only has to stage a pipeline terror attack and the west would beg Russia to get the oil flowing.

slug
02-20-2014, 12:24 PM
Big stakes in the energy sector.

Europe could cancel the Southstream pipeline to bring russian gas to Europe . This pipeline will cross the Black Sea and not Ukraine.

the Americans reject this pipeline and support the non russian Nabecco .

these are enormous projects

http://s10.postimg.org/w1pqs6uah/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
subir imagen (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)

beernd
02-20-2014, 03:11 PM
Before you rush to judgement, read some of the Stratfor articles on that part of the world. It's worse than the Middle East with all the different ethnic groups, religious beliefs and age old animosities. Putin is more along the lines of a strong man. We hate those types, but they often keep the lid on which is what most of the people want more than "democracy", whatever that would mean in their neck of the woods. If Russia were to disappear tomorrow the power vacuum left behind would make the conflicts in the Middle East look like pillow fights.

regards,
Waddie

Amen

Gerarddm
02-20-2014, 03:19 PM
You are missing the point It does not matter who owns the pipelines.

Russia could make it look like they are the good guy in protecting Europe’s energy supply and saving the world from another depression.

If the EU or the UN complains then Russia only has to stage a pipeline terror attack and the west would beg Russia to get the oil flowing.


I understand your point here. My view is that any pretext will be seen by the outside world as just that, a pretext. Putin could spin away like Clotho in her web, and it wouldn't convince anybody. I think the Russian economy is very vulnerable to economic pressures.

genglandoh
02-20-2014, 03:22 PM
I understand your point here. My view is that any pretext will be seen by the outside world as just that, a pretext. Putin could spin away like Clotho in her web, and it wouldn't convince anybody. I think the Russian economy is very vulnerable to economic pressures.

I hope you are right.

skaraborgcraft
02-20-2014, 04:28 PM
I understand your point here. My view is that any pretext will be seen by the outside world as just that, a pretext. Putin could spin away like Clotho in her web, and it wouldn't convince anybody. I think the Russian economy is very vulnerable to economic pressures.

What kind of economic pressure are you talking about? Sanctions similar to Iran? When was the last gold audit at the Fed? I have a feeling that Russian Federation has a bigger stockpile of the yellow metal and currency reserves.

PeterSibley
02-20-2014, 04:40 PM
They certainly hold Europe's gas reserves .

genglandoh
02-24-2014, 09:50 AM
White House tells Putin to keep Russian troops out of Ukraine

A day after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from office, National Security Adviser Susan Rice cautioned Russian President Vladimir Putin not to get involved. Ukraine has been unhinged by violence in recent months as opposition forces protested the rule of Russian-backed Yanukovych, who fled the capital over the weekend.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/putin-troops-ukraine-article-1.1699535#ixzz2uFdIGuuc

George.
02-24-2014, 09:56 AM
And what can the White House do about it if Putin pulls a Georgia?

Answer: same as they did re: Georgia.

Keith Wilson
02-24-2014, 11:06 AM
And what can the White House do about it if Putin pulls a Georgia?Unless we want to get into a war with Russia (and we don't, not over Ukraine), not much. There are probably a fair number of subtle things we could do in advance to tip Putin's cost-benefit analysis in a more restrained direction.

slug
02-24-2014, 11:18 AM
The cost benifit in is Russia's favor.

russia needs high oil prices and low interest rates to develop its economy.

Putin will saber rattle and throw a few punches.

the Americans will overreact and initiate some kinda Operation Freedom campaign.

The instability will cause the oil markets to take fright.

the price of oil will double.

The high oil price will drive americas economy into recession .


america will fight this oil shock economic slowdown with a massive QE stimulation program.

russia can then keep its interest rates low and get to work .

Russia wins. Expensive oil and cheap money.

purri
02-24-2014, 06:16 PM
Russia supplies the rest of Europe with gas. EOS.

Gerarddm
02-24-2014, 06:24 PM
the Americans will overreact and initiate some kinda Operation Freedom campaign.



Not while this president is in office.

Russia is sensitive to their international standing and reputation. As a resource-heavy economy, they have choke points. Yes, they can play the gas supply card but that will simply set opposition to them further in concrete and will undo all that Russia has laboriously struggled to build up again since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Sky Blue
02-24-2014, 06:27 PM
Who are we to be telling Russia anything? There are centuries of ties between these nations. Russia has incalculable interests in the Ukraine. Is this another "red line" drawn by Obama? The USA should shut the hell up and let the UN do the talking, if any.

Lew Barrett
02-24-2014, 08:39 PM
That's pretty much what is happening. It's up to the World Bank and the EU to solve the economic issues. Ukraine is a riddled mess. If there are any wars over Ukraine, they'll be initiated by Russia, not the US. They profess to see an eastern facing Ukraine as an existential issue.

Phillip Allen
02-24-2014, 08:42 PM
it'll be the Crimia they send troops to

Lew Barrett
02-24-2014, 09:03 PM
it'll be the Crimia they send troops to

That's where the bases are. Opinions are that they won't tolerate an independent Ukraine annexing Crimea. I'm going to assume you listened to the same radio reports I did.

Phillip Allen
02-24-2014, 09:04 PM
I thought the Crimea was already part of the Ukraine?

Lew Barrett
02-24-2014, 09:26 PM
I thought the Crimea was already part of the Ukraine?

It was more or less gifted (back) to Ukraine by Yeltsin, but indeed it's traditionally part of Ukraine. The understanding I have is that the intention at the time was to maintain the Russian naval ports there and that the "gift" was conditional and understood to be so at the time because of the military requirement for clear access to the ports. Russian point of view, I'd posit. I could have said it more clearly in my other post, I guess.

genglandoh
02-24-2014, 10:04 PM
Ukraine issues arrest warrant for ousted President ViktorYanukovych
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/24/world/europe/ukraine-politics/index.html?hpt=wo_c1 (http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/24/world/europe/ukraine-politics/index.html?hpt=wo_c1)

PeterSibley
02-25-2014, 01:41 AM
It was more or less gifted (back) to Ukraine by Yeltsin, but indeed it's traditionally part of Ukraine. The understanding I have is that the intention at the time was to maintain the Russian naval ports there and that the "gift" was conditional and understood to be so at the time because of the military requirement for clear access to the ports. Russian point of view, I'd posit. I could have said it more clearly in my other post, I guess.

The is a treaty guaranteeing 25 years of Russian access to it's fleet port. No need for troops, that treaty will be honoured.

PeterSibley
02-25-2014, 01:48 AM
Who are we to be telling Russia anything? There are centuries of ties between these nations. Russia has incalculable interests in the Ukraine. Is this another "red line" drawn by Obama? The USA should shut the hell up and let the UN do the talking, if any.

At the moment it's the Ukrainians doing the talking but the next few weeks will be very interesting . The ball is in Putin's court but having the Ukraine move towards the EU ( with it's eye on how well Poland has done from EU membership) is a major loss of face for Putin. He is trying to construct a "central asian union '' of states that are largely (all?) dictatorships. That was where he wanted the Ukraine, the Ukrainians have different ideas, at least those looking to the future rather than back to the USSR.

slug
02-25-2014, 04:37 AM
At the moment it's the Ukrainians doing the talking but the next few weeks will be very interesting . The ball is in Putin's court but having the Ukraine move towards the EU ( with it's eye on how well Poland has done from EU membership) is a major loss of face for Putin. He is trying to construct a "central asian union '' of states that are largely (all?) dictatorships. That was where he wanted the Ukraine, the Ukrainians have different ideas, at least those looking to the future rather than back to the USSR.


Ukraine cant dupilcte Polands success because the EU agreement doesnt allow the free movement of Ukraine nationals.

In the Uk alone thier are 500,000 polish immigrants.

http://s13.postimg.org/jpi5w0z1z/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
subir foto (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)


remitances to Poland are nearly 10 billion per year.

if the EU is seriuos about Ukrainian membership they will have to offer some way for young educated Ukrainians to work in the EU.

It is the young people who are on the street protesting.

PeterSibley
02-25-2014, 04:53 AM
Ukraine cant dupilcte Polands success because the EU agreement doesnt allow the free movement of Ukraine nationals.

In the Uk alone thier are 500,000 polish immigrants.

http://s13.postimg.org/jpi5w0z1z/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
subir foto (http://postimage.org/index.php?lang=spanish)


remitances to Poland are nearly 10 billion per year.

if the EU is seriuos about Ukrainian membership they will have to offer some way for young educated Ukrainians to work in the EU.

It is the young people who are on the street protesting.

Indeed , they don't see their future in some kind of reassembled USSR.

skuthorp
02-25-2014, 05:14 AM
Putin has supposedly said that he regards developments in the Ukraine as 'dangerous'. Probably worried that it might set a bad example.

slug
02-25-2014, 05:14 AM
The EU is proposing an asset grab. European companies will swoop in and purchase undervalued state assets , preach free trade while prohibiting young Ukrainians from relocating into Europe tobenefit front membership..

if the Ukrainians can form good gov. they will turn down this offer and bargain for something better from the sellers of freedom.

For instance the US could declare a new Operation Freedom type gig and throw one million green cards into the negotiations. Its a win win situation, the world gets peace, the US gets a fresh supply of young university educated engineers, scientists, doctors that keeps the US economy price competitive.... Ukraine is allowed to blow off demographic steam And Remittances from expatriate workers are a huge boost to development.

PeterSibley
02-25-2014, 05:20 AM
Putin has supposedly said that he regards developments in the Ukraine as 'dangerous'. Probably worried that it might set a bad example.

He does, elections are not a welcome development.

Slug, Russia is the country that can do with the demographic lift, their population is falling at 300,000 per year.

slug
02-25-2014, 05:22 AM
Ok..then why does Ukraine need EU membership ?

skuthorp
02-25-2014, 05:33 AM
It's a better deal than Putin's Russia I expect. And they need, so they say, 85 bill euros to go on with. Won't get that from Putin without steel cables, let alone strings.
As for their falling population, alcohol, diet, disease, the health system, and because this has been going on for a long time genetic damage.
http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/country-health-profile/russia

PeterSibley
02-25-2014, 05:45 AM
Ok..then why does Ukraine need EU membership ?

There are 2 options, Putin's central Asian union or the EU. It will be one or the other , which would you prefer ?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
02-25-2014, 06:08 AM
Putin will invade the Ukraine if he thinks he can get away with it. He thought that he didn't need to, because Yanukovych was in power, but Yanukovych has turned out to be rather less use to Russia than had been hoped. Last I heard, he has vanished after turning up in Balaclava, either into the gates of the Russian base there or onto a yacht heading for Russia.

slug
02-25-2014, 06:09 AM
Neither. I would negotiate preferential access to both Economic zones.

switzerland.



The main benefit to eu membership for ukraine is the eu s instance on good government.

Australia has good government but is not an eu member

The Eu transfers money to promote good government and to help counties conform to eu rules on issues such as banana bend and cucumber twist.

Better to negotiate a money transfer from both economic blocks.

russia needs a trade route into the eu. Europe needs a trade route into russia. If you are in the middle its Best to be a non aligned middle man. Euros in your left pocket, rubles in your right pocket.

PeterSibley
02-25-2014, 06:19 AM
That makes good sense but right now being part of some organisation that guarantees good government might be a good idea. Ukraine has a long memory of Russia kicking it and even though quite a large proportion of the population are Russian speakers I suspect the general wish is for that guarantee.

I'm also not quite sure Putin is finished, he must be really unhappy with the result thus far.

slug
02-25-2014, 07:06 AM
Be carefull that you dont give birth to a new Northern ireland

all this youtube , twiter ,media exposure empowers the side with the best internet connection...not the wisest policies.

ukraine needs wise leadership. ,

genglandoh
02-25-2014, 09:01 AM
it'll be the Crimia they send troops to

You may be right.
If the freedom fighters in Kiev send police or troops into the Crimea then the pro-Russian Government could ask Russia for protection.

The Russian Stronghold in Ukraine Preparing to Fight the Revolution

For Ukraine’s revolutionary leaders, that presents an urgent problem. In a matter of days, their sympathizers managed to seize nearly the entire country, including some of the most staunchly pro-Russian regions of eastern Ukraine. But they have made barely any headway on the Crimean peninsula. On the contrary, the revolution has given the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea their best chance ever to break away from Kiev’s rule and come back under the control of Russia. “An opportunity like this has never come along,” says Tatyana Yermakova, the head of the Russian Community of Sevastopol, a civil-society group in Crimea.

http://world.time.com/2014/02/23/the-russian-stronghold-in-ukraine-preparing-to-fight-the-revolution/#ixzz2uLF2mJtI

slug
02-25-2014, 09:08 AM
The ukrainian identity is very strong among ukrainians of russia heritage.

I think the struggle will not be between language groups but between groups who prefer statist policies and those who prefer free market policies.

The classic labour, conservative split that is present in all societies.

Both these groups can coexist if leaders recognize And represent their opinions.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
02-25-2014, 09:32 AM
The Crime is not "all that" Russian and the Tatars, who are "not terribly pro-Russian" account for 240,000 or so...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%BCrg%C3%BCn

genglandoh
02-26-2014, 10:20 AM
First there are scuffles between the two groups in the Crimea then the Russian get their troops ready.

Ukraine Crimea: Rival rallies confront one another
Pro-Kiev and pro-Moscow protesters have scuffled in Ukraine's Crimea region, as tensions increase following last week's ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26354705


Alarm in Ukraine as Putin puts Russian troops on alert
President Vladimir Putin put Russian combat troops on high alert for a drill on Wednesday, the Kremlin's most powerful gesture yet after days of sabre rattling since its ally Viktor Yanukovich was toppled as president of Ukraine.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/us-ukraine-idUSBREA1G0OU20140226

Gerarddm
02-26-2014, 11:26 AM
A fair national plebiscite dividing the country would have to be honored by everyone involved. I don't think that will happen, though.

slug
02-26-2014, 11:30 AM
The better question is will Europe pull back from Ukraine.


It looks like Yulia Tymoshenko will try to regain power. The europeans wont be happy.

Chip-skiff
02-26-2014, 01:25 PM
Putin is evidently weighing the possibility of military action, or at the very least rattling his saber pretty hard.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/world/europe/russia.html

skuthorp
02-26-2014, 03:41 PM
On wider ambitions than the Ukraine, anyone note this?
"General Shoigu, in his remarks, made clear that Russia’s military ambitions extended beyond its borders. He said that Russia intended to expand its military operations and presence globally by holding negotiations with Nicaragua, Venezuela, Singapore and the Seychelles to provide logistical support for strategic air patrols.“We need refueling bases either in the area of the Equator or elsewhere,” he said, according to Interfax."

Intervention might have been easier if Yanukovych had still been officially President. As long as their parliament is still functioning and there is some sort of civl order then Putin has less excuses.

Lew Barrett
02-26-2014, 07:53 PM
Intervention might have been easier if Yanukovych had still been officially President. As long as their parliament is still functioning and there is some sort of civl order then Putin has less excuses.

He has none, but that doesn't mean he won't have a few handy. ;)

PeterSibley
02-26-2014, 08:04 PM
Most countries need excuses for an invasion, even patently manufactured ones. Think WMD.

PeterSibley
02-27-2014, 05:11 AM
A major Russian exercise near the Ukrainian border http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s3953144.htmr

skuthorp
02-27-2014, 05:30 AM
It has started. Armed men invaded public buildings in Crimea and raised the Russian flag.
There will be popular actions from ethnic Russians wanting to stay within the old empire, and from paid agents of the Kremlin fomenting unrest and an excuse.

slug
02-27-2014, 06:18 AM
It has started. Armed men invaded public buildings in Crimea and raised the Russian flag.
Careful when judging ukraine by looking at Crimea.

Better to look at what happens in the east, not the special region.

PeterSibley
02-27-2014, 06:21 AM
Will the tanks roll is the question, I wonder if Putin is keen enough to try to bluff the EU and Nato.

mizzenman
02-27-2014, 06:34 AM
I hope they split it into two countries. It's the only solution that I can se.

skuthorp
02-27-2014, 07:30 AM
BTW, my great grandfather joining the Royal Marines as a drummer boy at 12 had his first 'deployment' in a horse transport ship to the Crimea in 1853. Served till 1882, then became a teacher in a military prison. My Grandfather was his 10th and last child quite late in his life.

keyhavenpotterer
02-27-2014, 08:10 AM
With Winter Olympics preventing military support the outgoing leader, they've had to sit and watch.

Their interest is maintaining the Black Sea Fleet port and preventing the Russians down there getting too uncomfortable.

It's now in Russia's interest that Ukraine splits in two.

They (KGB) will first encourange conflict between both sides so they can role in military under the umbrella of 'peace'. Look good as peacekeepers...

They then have seperate elections in the name of 'democracy'.

Western Ukraine can then look to Europe.

Eastern Ukraine can look to Russia.

Russia can keep it's black sea fleet in the status quo.

Euro rats can have a project.

Everyone's a winner.


Is Ukraine splitable?

bamamick
02-27-2014, 08:15 AM
I do now. After what's happened yesterday and today.

Mickey Lake

Canoez
02-27-2014, 08:53 AM
I do now. After what's happened yesterday and today.

Mickey Lake

I'd be willing to bet that the folks in the Crimean capitol building are Russian, not ethnic Russian Ukrainians. Don't think Yanukovich's arrival in Moscow wasn't without a bit of forethought, either. Based on what they've shown of his "estate", I'd say the odds are pretty good that he's a klepto-crat of the highest order.

I think it will look a lot like the Georgian intervention, with Russian troops protecting the rights of ethnic Russian Ukrainians. The rest of the world will sit and watch it happen, too.

skuthorp
02-27-2014, 04:55 PM
With knowledge of the risks involved……………………..The Sudatenland comes to mind…………….

Canoez
02-28-2014, 10:08 AM
I would say that it's obvious that it has begun. From what I understand, the two airports that are held by "armed militia" are also Ukrainian air force bases.

slug
02-28-2014, 10:18 AM
All they need to solve the problem is a leader , not connected to past administrations , who can compromise and defuse the situation.

Russian speakers have been marginalized ever since Ukraine canceled Russian as an official language.

If the new leadership cant find compromise, they will never be allowed into the European union.

The concept of the EU is compromise and minority rights.

Canoez
02-28-2014, 10:29 AM
With Russia supporting Yanukovich, I don't see any leader other than Yanukovich being acceptable to the Russians - even if Ukraine manages to stay independent long enough to hold elections in May. I think the aim of the Russian pressure at this point in time is to take physical control of the Crimean region and try to sway the May voting to a government more of their liking - provided an actual shooting conflict doesn't break out in the mean-time.

You also have to remember that the Ukranian language was marginalized in the Soviet years as a way of integrating the country - as well as moving native Russians into the various countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, etc. to "homogenize" the populations. It's been since 1991 that Ukraine has been an independent nation - at least in name. Also, that the Crimea was "returned" to the Ukraine in 1954 - it's not a recent development, either. Russia is afraid of losing both a trading partner (and energy customer/transit/pipeline provider - a major Russian export.) and the strengths of Ukrainian food production as well as the ability to keep the Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol.

genglandoh
02-28-2014, 12:09 PM
It does not sound like the ex-leader of the Ukraine will behappy with the Ukraine Splitting into 2 groups.

Ukrainian ex-leader Viktor Yanukovych vows fightback
Viktor Yanukovych has vowed to fight for Ukraine, in hisfirst public appearance since being ousted as president last week.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26386946 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26386946)

genglandoh
02-28-2014, 12:19 PM
Interesting read from the BBC

Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Nobody yet knows the identities of the armed men who seized control of Simferopol airport.
But their equipment, their vehicles and their behaviour all signal that this is a trained military unit, not a rag-tag group of pro-Russian loyalists.
"These men look like a formed and organised body of troops. They appear to be disciplined, confident and uniformly dressed and equipped," says Brigadier Ben Barry, a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26388057

Keith Wilson
02-28-2014, 01:06 PM
Things are getting weird, and I think I'll revise my original odds to about 50-50. Russia really wants those naval bases in Crimea to be secure, and they might try grabbing that bit. The Crimea is majority ethnic Russian.

pefjr
02-28-2014, 01:10 PM
Russian Jets scrabbled. I wonder why John Kerry is shooting off his mouth, and why the US is sending aid and loans? Can't the EU take care of themselves. We need to sit back and watch ......for a change.

Canoez
02-28-2014, 01:15 PM
Russian Jets scrabbled. I wonder why John Kerry is shooting off his mouth, and why the US is sending aid and loans? Can't the EU take care of themselves. We need to sit back and watch ......for a change.

Source?

John of Phoenix
02-28-2014, 01:38 PM
Scrabbled, eh? Is that like "scrambled" only they land instead of takeoff?
At least five Russian Il-76 planes have landed at a military airport in Gvardiysky, near Simferopol, Ukrainska Pravda internet newspaper reports citing eyewitnesses.

Is there no speculation on what Reagan would have done? Who would dubya have invaded?

pefjr
02-28-2014, 01:42 PM
Source?
Yahoo

John of Phoenix
02-28-2014, 01:57 PM
The jets are just part of Putin's military exercises along the Ukrainian border. Airborne saber rattling is all.


KYIV, Ukraine — Russia scrambled fighter jets to patrol its border and reportedly gave shelter to Ukraine’s fugitive president as pro-Russian gunmen stormed offices of Ukraine’s strategic region of Crimea, deepening the crisis for the new Ukrainian government even as it was being formed.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/world/1190093-russia-zeroes-in-at-border

Canoez
02-28-2014, 02:01 PM
The jets are just part of Putin's military exercises along the Ukrainian border. Airborne saber rattling is all.

That's what I was thinking. Intimidation.

John of Phoenix
02-28-2014, 02:09 PM
This is a picture of the kind of planes that landed at the military airport. Big cargo planes. Likely they were bringing in troops and vehicles that are now at the nearby civilian airport.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Aeroflot_Ilyushin_Il-76TD_at_Zurich_Airport_in_May_1985.jpg/800px-Aeroflot_Ilyushin_Il-76TD_at_Zurich_Airport_in_May_1985.jpg

willmarsh3
02-28-2014, 05:54 PM
Obama speaks ...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/28/obama-on-ukraine-the-u-s-is-deeply-concerned/?hpt=hp_t1

Gerarddm
02-28-2014, 08:11 PM
The armed men at the airports are probably Putin's version of Blackwater.

The plot thickens.

Russia's economy is not that big, despite its size, IIRC somewhat larger than the Netherlands? Which means the ruble is subject to a manipulated crash.

Peter Malcolm Jardine
02-28-2014, 08:53 PM
This could get very bad, very quickly.

Sky Blue
02-28-2014, 09:05 PM
So far all Mr. Obama has managed is a weak "there will be costs" if Russia persists. What kind of weak, milquetoast doublespeak is this? This is the best his foreign policy people and speech writers can come up with? He just looks weak. We aren't going to do anything; our President should stand down and be quiet.

This President's foreign policy acumen is a weak as I have ever seen. Golly.

It would have been better to have said nothing at all and to have spoken through private channels via our UN ambassador, which I am sure (hope?) is happening.

Barry never saw a speech he didn't need to make.

Old Dryfoot
02-28-2014, 10:00 PM
This is a picture of the kind of planes that landed at the military airport. Big cargo planes. Likely they were bringing in troops and vehicles that are now at the nearby civilian airport.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Aeroflot_Ilyushin_Il-76TD_at_Zurich_Airport_in_May_1985.jpg/800px-Aeroflot_Ilyushin_Il-76TD_at_Zurich_Airport_in_May_1985.jpg

News radio today at work said 18 planes, each with 150 troops on board.

jclays
02-28-2014, 10:54 PM
They did......

slug
03-01-2014, 01:34 AM
Perhaps they have weapons of mass destruction at those naval bases that need to be secure.

perhaps russian soldiers are simply on rotation .

perhaps the border crossing and ukrainian transport network are unsafe for russian land transport and those planes carry food and supplies.

most civil wars start by miscalculation..the war in Yugolsavia started with a serious of provocations from unknown actors on both sides , followed by a series of provocative actions on both sides. These provocations then spiraled out of control.

I dont believe Russia is stupid. Fighting a civil war in a large country like Ukraine , against professional soldiers armed with modern weapons , would be incredibly expensive and ruinous.

Canoez
03-01-2014, 06:40 AM
Considering Ukraine's current financial situation, I think you'll find that the Ukrainian military probably isn't in good shape in terms of training and equipment. I'd even be willing to bet that "police" that fell under Yanukovich's control were the best funded fighting force in the country.

Skuthorp - positively prescient. Sudetenland, indeed - this could be the 1930's. "Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it."

slug
03-01-2014, 07:13 AM
Becareful what you wish for.

Remember...leaders like Obama are grandstanding to a domestic audience. Obamas opponent, Mccain , was just interviewed , spouted his patriotic condemnations , while lamenting the decline of American power under Obama.

This domestic grandstanding is telegraphed by the media , encouraging irresponsible behavior and miscalculaions by Ukrainian opposition groups.

No American is prepared to reach into thier pocket to solve ukraines economic crisis.

the Arab spring is a classic example. Encouraged by the western media.

Look at what the arabs have created..chaos and another lost generation.

The Spanish frontier police are shooting them with rubber bullets as they try to flee the chaos the arab spring created.

Canoez
03-01-2014, 07:34 AM
Let's put this in perspective. Let's say after Bush's first election, an unhappy Great Britain re-took New England to protect it's ethnic colonists...

Gerarddm
03-01-2014, 08:28 AM
Sky Blue's assessment is wrong. The tone of his comment leads me to believe that he would favor American military intervention.

In fact, Obama has done exactly what I thought we would do. We can't intervene militarily, and should not. He has put Putin on notice, both publicly and privately, and is no doubt consulting with Europe and others as to the consequences of a neo-soviet intervention.

The reality is that with the history involved and the Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine is an existential issue for the USSR ( oops, Russia ) and is not for the US. This is not the Cuban missile crisis for us.

BTW, we reacted to the Arab Spring, we did not instigate it. There is a certain self-immolated Tunisian food seller who would testify to that if he could.

bamamick
03-01-2014, 09:28 AM
'Facebook' friends from Finland seem to believe that the government of Ukraine had fascist leanings and are glad that this has happened. They appear to favour Russian intervention and a split of the country (with the eastern part going by the name of 'Novorussia'). It appears that that's how it's going to happen, doesn't it?

Mickey Lake

slug
03-01-2014, 09:44 AM
A divided country will not gain EU membership. Bad move.

George Jung
03-01-2014, 10:28 AM
Looks like a done deal; impressive how fast it's happened.

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 11:35 AM
Well it has happened.

Russian parliament approves troop deployment in Ukraine
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

pefjr
03-01-2014, 01:29 PM
Russia to bring US Ambassador home? Over an insult by Obama? Ridiculous. Lol

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 01:39 PM
Russia to bring US Ambassador home? Over an insult by Obama? Ridiculous. Lol


Russia lawmakers: Recall ambassador to U.S., send troops to Ukraine

The Federation Council also recommended that the Kremlin recall the Russian ambassador to the United States to underscore objections to remarks made by President Obama (http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/government/barack-obama-PEPLT007408.topic) on Friday. At a White House (http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/government/executive-branch/white-house-PLCUL000110.topic) briefing, Obama warned Putin that he was “deeply concerned” by the reported Russian military maneuvers in Crimea, which are considered by the West to be in violation of Russia’s post-Soviet agreement with Ukraine for maintaining its naval base in the leased city of Sevastopol. Obama said there would be “consequences” for the Kremlin should it interfere in Ukraine’s political crisis.

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-russia-ukraine-troops-authorized-20140301,0,3015804.story#ixzz2ujnYagoE

Chip-skiff
03-01-2014, 02:00 PM
The report I heard said that Russian troops with the Black Sea fleet left their base in uniforms without insignia, wearing facemasks, to surround airports and government buildings. Another report had video of armed men taking over the Parliament building in Crimea.

I suspect that Russia will annex Crimea. There will be ongoing disputes about the other parts of eastern Ukraine— not sure how far Putin thinks he can push it.

pefjr
03-01-2014, 03:50 PM
Looks much like a civil war to me. Someone needs to muffle Kerry.

George Jung
03-01-2014, 04:21 PM
Putin - the best the KGB has to offer. He strikes me as a 'bully boy', has absolute control in Russia, and have to wonder if dreams of resurrecting the USSR fill his nights. The opportunity to egg the USA into an armed confrontation seems appealing to him, as well, from what I'm seeing.

pefjr
03-01-2014, 05:05 PM
Putin - the best the KGB has to offer. He strikes me as a 'bully boy', has absolute control in Russia, and have to wonder if dreams of resurrecting the USSR fill his nights. The opportunity to egg the USA into an armed confrontation seems appealing to him, as well, from what I'm seeing.I like Putin, he has more personality than the previous Czars, though he is ignorant of Mother Nature, and has let the Power corrupt him somewhat. He is like a Hollywood Star, and uses that image to his satisfaction. I don't think we have any business in this affair. Let them handle it their way.

PeterSibley
03-01-2014, 05:14 PM
If NATO gets involved , you're involved.

JayInOz
03-01-2014, 05:19 PM
Putin - the best the KGB has to offer. He strikes me as a 'bully boy', has absolute control in Russia, and have to wonder if dreams of resurrecting the USSR fill his nights. The opportunity to egg the USA into an armed confrontation seems appealing to him, as well, from what I'm seeing.

I agree totally. I've always thought that there was a truly dark side to Putin that I hoped would never get out. This has the potential to get really ugly. JayInOz

JimD
03-01-2014, 05:26 PM
Putin - wonder if dreams of resurrecting the USSR fill his nights.I doubt if he dreams of building a new wall through Berlin but I suspect the Ukraine is different. Its far more important to Moscow than a lot of the lost territory of the Soviet era. From the CIA Factbook:


After Russia, the Ukrainian republic was the most important economic component of the former Soviet Union, producing about four times the output of the next-ranking republic. Its fertile black soil generated more than one-fourth of Soviet agricultural output, and its farms provided substantial quantities of meat, milk, grain, and vegetables to other republics. Likewise, its diversified heavy industry supplied the unique equipment (for example, large diameter pipes) and raw materials to industrial and mining sites (vertical drilling apparatus) in other regions of the former USSR. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html

bamamick
03-01-2014, 06:03 PM
Did I hear correctly that China is quietly backing the Russian intervention because it represents the best chance for immediate stability in the region, and China needs the grain they buy from Ukraine very badly?

Mickey Lake

Gerarddm
03-01-2014, 06:50 PM
I am sure the backroom maneuvering is going on furiously.

I was wrong about Putin, I though he'd be smarter.

Why anybody outside Russia would 'like' Putin is beyond me.

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 07:01 PM
The US Ambassador if Russia resigned just after the winter Olympics.


The United States ambassador to Russia announced Tuesday that he would resign after the Winter Olympics, set to begin in Sochi this week, ending a stormy two-year tenure during which relations between the two countries were at their lowest ebb since the end of the Cold War.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/05/world/europe/russia.html

Sky Blue
03-01-2014, 07:02 PM
Sky Blue's assessment is wrong. The tone of his comment leads me to believe that he would favor American military intervention.



To the contrary, I think American involvement would be a terrible idea, moreover, I believe our President should stay quiet on the issue, not threaten others, not threaten "costs", don't draw "red lines" and speak on the issue, if at all, with our allies, jointly, or otherwise through the vehicle of the UN.

The Ukraine is a European/Russian problem. Milquetoast speeches from the Nobel prize winner about vague and amorphous consequences that will never be imposed is just more squandering of any foreign policy credibility this administration has left, which unfortunately, is very little at this point.

PeterSibley
03-01-2014, 07:10 PM
What are the US's treaty obligations if NATO gets involved ?

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 07:13 PM
What are the US's treaty obligations if NATO gets involved ?

I think NATO is a defensive organization.

Which means that we come to another members aide if the NATO country is attacked.

pefjr
03-01-2014, 07:25 PM
I am sure the backroom maneuvering is going on furiously.

I was wrong about Putin, I though he'd be smarter.

Why anybody outside Russia would 'like' Putin is beyond me.
You are funny, just what has Putin done? Has he fired any drones at wedding parties lately, or is it YOU that just swallowed the propaganda?

PeterSibley
03-01-2014, 07:28 PM
I think NATO is a defensive organization.

Which means that we come to another members aide if the NATO country is attacked.

Was NATO invoked for Afghanistan ? Afghanistan didn't attack anyone.

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 07:31 PM
Was NATO invoked for Afghanistan ? Afghanistan didn't attack anyone.

I think you do not understand what a treaty is.

It is not a country it is an agreement between countries.

So you can be a member of the NATO agreement and still independently decide to support a war in another part of the world.

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 08:05 PM
I think you do not understand what a treaty is.

It is not a country it is an agreement between countries.

So you can be a member of the NATO agreement and still independently decide to support a war in another part of the world.

I hope you do not take this post as being insulting.
I did not intent to insult you I was just answering your question quickly.

Chip-skiff
03-01-2014, 08:23 PM
I like Putin, he has more personality than the previous Czars, though he is ignorant of Mother Nature, and has let the Power corrupt him somewhat. He is like a Hollywood Star, and uses that image to his satisfaction.

So you were acquainted with the Czars? Have you spoken of this to your physician?

Putin is a rather typical megalomaniac dictator, most reminiscent of Stalin, uncommon only in his talent for wielding power in a vicious manner.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/culture/CVS_TNY_02_03_14_580px.jpg

PeterSibley
03-01-2014, 08:27 PM
I think you do not understand what a treaty is.

It is not a country it is an agreement between countries.

So you can be a member of the NATO agreement and still independently decide to support a war in another part of the world.

Granted, but can your treaty partners, ie the other members call on you to assist in a war they are involved in. Are you required to assist under the treaty.


No insult, you're not good in text but neither am I.

genglandoh
03-01-2014, 08:35 PM
Granted, but can your treaty partners, ie the other members call on you to assist in a war they are involved in. Are you required to assist under the treaty.


No insult, you're not good in text but neither am I.

I don't know for sure but the treaty is a defensive treaty.
So the country at war would have had been attacked first in order to ask for help.

pefjr
03-01-2014, 09:09 PM
[QUOTE=Chip-skiff;4083481]So you were acquainted with the Czars? Have you spoken of this to your physician?

Putin is a rather typical megalomaniac dictator, most reminiscent of Stalin, uncommon only in his talent for wielding power in a vicious manner.

[QUOTE]Stalin? Ha. Vicious,.......I musta missed the massacre. Let me remind you of large# of innocents the White House war criminal is responsible for. Or do those dark skins have no value to you?

Bob Cleek
03-01-2014, 09:30 PM
Well, they're there now. http://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-over-ukraines-crimea-region-200052097.html They've taken over the Crimea, fortunately without firing a shot.

I'm not surprised, from what little I've heard about the situation. And, while I don't consider myself sufficiently informed to make a blanket statement as to who's right or wrong, my initial impression is that Putin is making the smart move, both militarily and from the humanitarian perspective. I'm not buying the political sabre rattling coming out of Washington or Fox News. I made the acquaintance of a guy, now long retired, who worked at the US Embassy in Moscow for a fairly long time. He was the US liaison to the Russians on joint law enforcement operations, primarily focusing on Russian organized crime syndicates. His primary opposite contact was Putin, who was working for Russian law enforcement at the time. He and Putin met at least weekly, one on one, ate breakfast together and went over the status of their joint operations which each supervised for their respective nations. His assessment of Putin: "He's a cop's cop." I never heard him describe Putin as a "megalomaniac" or a "dictator" or anything of the sort. That said, I doubt Putin has the same appreciation, or respect, for democracy that Western heads of state might, but that's a function of his experiential antecedents. He isn't s reincarnation of Joe Stalin though, not by a long shot.

So what are they doing in the Crimea, which is part of the Ukraine? I think we have to look at it in the context of historical experience.

Ukraine is one of those "composite" countries that exists more a geographical entity than a unified cultural entity. It's made up of Slavs and Tartars. Without putting too fine a point on it, the Slavs are in one end of the country closer to Europe and the Tartars are in the other end, closer to the Middle East, primarily the Crimean area in the south. Now, a bit of Wiki-background:

"While ethnic Ukrainians are predominantly Orthodox and Uniate Christians, Muslims have lived in the territory that makes up modern Ukraine for centuries. Muslim settlements are concentrated in the country's southern half, particularly in Crimea, although colonies of Lipka Tatars are in other regions such as Volhynia and Podolia.

"The Crimean Khanate was established by the Crimean Tatars in the 15th century. These people were formed from the Turkic speaking descendants of both Turkic and non-Turkic peoples who had settled in Eastern Europe as early as the 7th century.

"The Khanate soon lost its sovereignty and fell under the influence of the Ottoman Empire and was controlled by the local tributary rulers with a significant degree of autonomy. From the 15th century to the 18th century, Crimean Tatars frequently raided Eastern Slavic lands to capture their inhabitants, enslaving an estimated three million people, predominantly Ukrainians. The influence of Russia in the area, initially small, was gaining momentum, and in the late 18th century, after the series of Russo-Turkish Wars, the territory was annexed by the Russian Empire.

"The Crimean Tatars were Sunnis, and the mufti was regarded as the highest religious figure. All communities were led by and represented before others by local imams.

"The Crimean Khanate had Bakhchysarai as its capital. In the 18th century, when it was conquered by Russia, at least 18 mosques were in the capital along with several madrassas. The Russian Empire began persecuting the Muslim population, and nearly 160,000 Tatars were forced to leave Crimea.

"Muslims who stayed faced conflicts in ideology among those who adhered to a conservative form of religion, the moderates, and those who subscribed to liberal and Western ideology.

"At the time of the Russian Revolution in 1917, Muslims constituted one-third of Crimea's population. Nearly all major cities in Crimea had a significant Muslim population.

"Crimean Muslims were subjected to mass deportation in 1944 when Joseph Stalin accused them of collaborating with Nazi Germany. Nearly 200,000 Crimean Tatars were deported to Central Asia, mainly Uzbekistan but also to Kazakhstan and some regions of Russian SFSR. The main deportation occurred on May 18, 1944. It is estimated that about 45% of all Crimean Muslims died in 1944–1945 from hunger and disease.[citation needed] The property and territory abandoned by Crimean Tatars were appropriated by the mostly ethnic Russians who were resettled by the Soviet authorities. This led to demographic changes in Ukraine with huge impact in the future. Although a 1967 Soviet decree removed the charges against Crimean Tatars, the Soviet government did nothing to facilitate their resettlement in Crimea or to make reparations for lost lives and confiscated property. The repatriation of Crimean Tatars to their homeland began only in 1989.

"Since the Ukrainian independence in 1991, more Crimean Tatars have returned to Crimea than during the Soviet era. The Muslims are divided into various ethnic groups but the majority are of Tatar origin, of one particular clan or other. There has also been settlement by Chechen refugees in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine but the proportion is not significant by comparison.

"In Crimea, the Ukrainian Muslims make up to 12% of the population. At least 30 Ukrainian Muslim communities work without official registration (there are nearly 360 registered communities or organizations).

"According to the 2000 census Ukraine was home to 248,193 Crimean Tatars, 73,304 Volga Tatars, 45,176 Azeris, 12,353 Uzbeks, 8,844 Turks, 6,575 Arabs and 5,526 Kazakhs.[3]

According to a Pew Forum study, the Muslim population in Ukraine is 393,000,[4] According to the Clerical Board of Ukraine's Muslims there were two million Muslims in Ukraine as of 2009.[5] As of 2012, there are an estimated 500,000 Muslims in Ukraine and about 300,000 of them are Crimean Tatars."



Okay... Is a Russian invasion of Crimea starting to make sense? Ukraine is split at the moment, with the northwestern Slav areas closer to Europe aligning with the European Union. The southern area, including Crimea, which has a lot of Russian speaking residents and a closer alliance with Russia, favors alliance with Russia. BUT, the Crimea, is itself split between pro-Russian factions and pro-Islamic factions. (Remember those Tartars that didn't like the Russians and joined that special Ukrainian SS regiment that ran death camps back during WWII and the Soviet post-war pogroms against the Tartars?)

My guess is that Putin sees the "invasion' as a preemptive "police action" to keep the lid on what could become a civil war between Islamist Tartar factions (remember Chechnya?) and Russian factions. The Russians are moving in to back the pro-Russian Crimeans in an effort to "keep the lid" on what might otherwise become another Islamic Fundamentalist takeover.

So, for the moment, at least, from what little I know about it, I think the Russians moving into the Crimea is all about their protecting their own flank from yet another Islamic terrorist state. The problems they had with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan are fresh in their minds.

I could be wrong, but I see Russia having way too much on its plate to be looking to doing any "Red Scare" style territorial expansion. They can hardly govern what they've got left. They just don't want another state in a Fundamentalist Islamic terrorist civil war along their borders.

Ask yourself, when we had a neighboring nation that looked like it was going to go Communist, what did the US do? And how many times over. Can you say "Cuba?"

pefjr
03-01-2014, 09:58 PM
Obama to Putin, "You have violated International Law".:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes :

George Jung
03-02-2014, 12:32 AM
After that post, Mr. Cleek (and The Committee thanks you.... though wonders 'what took you so long?'), I'm a bit peeved. Seems I have to reconsider my perceptions. If your assessments are correct (and they seemingly ring true), my views have been 'massaged' - and not in a good way.

PeterSibley
03-02-2014, 12:43 AM
Sorry Bob, that sounds decidedly one sided .


"'I could be wrong, but I see Russia having way too much on its plate to be looking to doing any "Red Scare" style territorial expansion. They can hardly govern what they've got left. They just don't want another state in a Fundamentalist Islamic terrorist civil war along their borders."

If there is one thing Ukrainian Moslems aren't is fundamentalist, the Chechens might just have a few long standing complaint though.

skuthorp
03-02-2014, 01:32 AM
I think Bob has a point, several in fact. No matte if the Ukranian muslims are quiescent at present, there are some long standing and justifiable resentments no doubt and for Russia, if you don't have a problem make sure you don't create one.
A message the US and it's supporters should have had in mind some time ago as well.

Bob Cleek
03-02-2014, 04:59 AM
After that post, Mr. Cleek (and The Committee thanks you.... though wonders 'what took you so long?'), I'm a bit peeved. Seems I have to reconsider my perceptions. If your assessments are correct (and they seemingly ring true), my views have been 'massaged' - and not in a good way.

George, not every massage has a "happy ending." :d :D :D

PeterSibley
03-02-2014, 05:14 AM
I think Bob has a point, several in fact. No matte if the Ukranian muslims are quiescent at present, there are some long standing and justifiable resentments no doubt and for Russia, if you don't have a problem make sure you don't create one.
A message the US and it's supporters should have had in mind some time ago as well.

They've already created them, in spades actually. The Russians are as culturally sensitive as the USA.

willmarsh3
03-02-2014, 05:25 AM
Sochi was supposed to show the "New Russia" friendly and open for business. But now we see the real side of Russia come out.

skuthorp
03-02-2014, 06:43 AM
Sochi was supposed to show the "New Russia" friendly and open for business. But now we see the real side of Russia come out.
Think 1936.

willmarsh3
03-02-2014, 10:45 AM
Interesting parallel indeed. I hope it doesn't portend war.

keyhavenpotterer
03-03-2014, 04:56 AM
This is the best thing that could have happened.

Russia has stabilised the region by reassuring the Crimean people that there jobs and society isn't going to fall apart.

This has prevented a potential bloody civil war and a complete breakdown.

The pro European side will have to back down and calm down.

In a stabilised country they can have re elections for a representative government.

Russia and the world has a right to maintain order around large military assets. Look at Syria and it's chemical weapons problem as it fell apart.

Without this intervention by Russia, this could have turned into a bloody conflict civil war, backed by cold war powers leading only death and destruction before partition anyway.

This way we avoid the death and destruction part.

The situation is stabilised.

An elected corrupt leader has been replaced by an un elected leader. Choice your poison.

Russia has just stabilsed that country without firing a shot.

The potential flashpoint is the bases held by Ukrainian forces inside crimea. That could be a flashpoint. The Russian comanders won't fire, they don't need to.

Whether the crimea is annexed by Russia or mainatained as Ukraine with Russian influence it doesn't matter. Just a border line...

The crimean people are and wish to remain allied to Russia. It's in the new governments interest to cry foul. Weak governments always play the nationalist card.


Ed

PeterSibley
03-03-2014, 05:10 AM
I find myself in unwilling agreement with almost all of that Ed with the exception of the last line,

The Crimean people are and wish to remain allied to Russia. It's in the new governments interest to cry foul. Weak governments always play the nationalist card.

Playing the nationalist card just after you've been invaded sounds fairly reasonable to me.

keyhavenpotterer
03-03-2014, 05:48 AM
The new Urainian government can now procede to Europe or fight Russia for a distant deep water port that was already given politically, economically and historically to Russian use.

The new people in power in Kiev will have to forget Crimea. Hold democratic elections. Then look to Euro integration.

They'll get there far sooner with an intact economy.

Russia needs and should mantain it's fleet there, and it's what those people want.

Euro American politician's will hoop and hollar on camera in some traditional status grabbing old school cold war posturing.

Eurocrats were scratching their head over Ukraine, but the pro Euro coup followed by this Russian action has solved this country's problem at a stroke.

Everyone now has what they want.

PeterSibley
03-03-2014, 05:54 AM
Ukraine had a treaty and Russia has a lease on the Crimean bases until 2042 . This whole thing is unnecessary .

slug
03-03-2014, 06:18 AM
Evidently russia refuses to speak to the ukrainian government...calling it illegitimate until the next election.

if at the next election Russia's preferred candidate fails to win...then big trouble.

keyhavenpotterer
03-03-2014, 06:44 AM
Broadley it is, was and will be an internal power struggle for the future direction of the country: east or west.

The pro European half wanted Euro membership the pro Russian didn't.

Not an ideological disscusion, these people were separated geographically, historically and economically.

Without changing the boundary line one side was going to lose out and in the mean time generate political and social instability or a civil war.

Russia's move is in Europe's interest to join Ulkraine in, Kiev to be able to join, Crimea to stay with Russia and Russia to keep it's port and protect it's 'people'.

No body has lost. Every single party is better off.

PeterSibley
03-03-2014, 06:53 AM
As long as we end up with a peaceful partition.

keyhavenpotterer
03-03-2014, 06:56 AM
The pro Euro government mandate will be stronger without the dilution and distraction of pro Russian Crimean population.

PeterSibley
03-03-2014, 06:58 AM
As long as Putin is happy to see half the country escape Russian domination.

slug
03-03-2014, 07:01 AM
Naw, that wont work. Bad move. Better to copy the Swiss model of the Federal Council , 4 official languages and neutrality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Council_(Switzerland)



this model has stood the test of time.

divided states stay diveded forever. No one will ever invest in a divided state, its growth will be stunted.

Cyprus doesnt work.

Keith Wilson
03-03-2014, 07:05 AM
but the pro Euro coup followed by this Russian action has solved this country's problem at a stroke.Whether the problem is actually solved depends on several things. If Mr Putin is content with only taking Crimea, if the new government can pull things together, salvage what's left of the economy with enough western help, possibly recover some of the money that the previous government looted, if the Russian-speaking minority in the east stays relatively quiet - then yes, maybe. Otherwise, not yet.

TomF
03-03-2014, 08:45 AM
Thucydides again. "The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must."

It is striking this morning how the "Realist" school of international relations keeps on keeping on. We (or at least I) don't know Putin's motives - whether he's primarily securing Russia's economic and strategic interests (gas-exports and the naval bases), or whether he's laying the ground for renewed Russian neo-imperial expansion. Is he focused on consolidation of power internally, or is he aiming to rebuild the USSR's sphere of influence under his closer-to-fascist model of government?

Regardless, Putin has followed rather textbook "Realism" here; identifying and consolidating strategic interests rather than indulging in militaristic posturing and bravado. Pragmatism, and an unapologetic disdain for the systems of international law intended to constrain state behaviour. And a rather blunt calculation that Western Europe would rather not freeze, so will continue to do business with Russia however it acts within its own sphere. It is a fair calculation - both Russia and Europe now have too much to lose to risk that trade relationship. Putin is counting on the West's standard of living being our downfall; our populations will risk much (too much) before risking our luxury.

In the long term, I think that the real conflict will be between Russia and China.

genglandoh
11-12-2014, 07:52 PM
Looks like the sanctions are not stopping Russia from moving into the Ukraine.

Ukraine crisis: Russian troops crossed border, Nato says
Nato has seen Russian military equipment and Russian combat troops entering Ukraine this week, its top commander Gen Philip Breedlove says.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30025138

johnw
11-12-2014, 08:40 PM
What action could we have taken that would have prevented this? What should we do now?

genglandoh
01-22-2015, 08:26 AM
Russia has 9,000 troops in Ukraine - President Poroshenko
Russia has more than 9,000 soldiers and 500 tanks, heavy artillery and armoured personnel carriers in eastern Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30913027

Arizona Bay
01-22-2015, 09:10 AM
What action could we have taken that would have prevented this? What should we do now?

It seems we're doing this...


US Trainers To Deploy To UkraineBy Paul McLeary4:16 p.m. EST January 21, 2015
Also Will Begin Shipment of US-funded Armored Vehicles


American soldiers will deploy to Ukraine this spring to begin training four companies of the Ukrainian National Guard, the head of US Army Europe Lt. Gen Ben Hodges said during his first visit to Kiev on Wednesday.
The number of troops heading to the Yavoriv Training Area near the city of L'viv — which is about 40 miles from the Polish border — is still being determined, however.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/army/2015/01/21/ukraine-us-army-russia/22119315/

johnw
01-22-2015, 02:30 PM
O, lordy, another small war. I hate this.

skuthorp
01-22-2015, 02:35 PM
It seems we're doing this...


US Trainers To Deploy To Ukraine

By Paul McLeary4:16 p.m. EST January 21, 2015
Also Will Begin Shipment of US-funded Armored Vehicles




American soldiers will deploy to Ukraine this spring to begin training four companies of the Ukrainian National Guard, the head of US Army Europe Lt. Gen Ben Hodges said during his first visit to Kiev on Wednesday.
The number of troops heading to the Yavoriv Training Area near the city of L'viv — which is about 40 miles from the Polish border — is still being determined, however.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/army/2015/01/21/ukraine-us-army-russia/22119315/



Oh yes, "advisors", I remember where that led to.

PeterSibley
01-22-2015, 03:22 PM
O, lordy, another small war. I hate this.

on Russia's doorstep? Imagine Russian "trainers" in Mexico. :arg

Have Americans no imagination at all? :mad::mad:

johnw
01-22-2015, 03:46 PM
on Russia's doorstep? Imagine Russian "trainers" in Mexico. :arg

Have Americans no imagination at all? :mad::mad:

Of course we do, that's why I hate this. I've got a very bad feeling about where this could go. Call me an isolationist, but I can't imagine we have enough interest in this conflict to risk being at war with Russia.

PeterSibley
01-22-2015, 03:53 PM
Step back 15 years and hold that position, accept Russia as it accepts you. Respect.

johnw
01-22-2015, 04:02 PM
Step back 15 years and hold that position, accept Russia as it accepts you. Respect.

Perhaps my meaning would have been clearer if I'd used "orphan quotes" around "small." You seem to have invented a meaning for my that is not my own.

Cuyahoga Chuck
01-22-2015, 04:51 PM
Putin has a problem . Crimea is a peninsula. It can easily be barracaded and the Ukrainians have done that. The Ukrainians have already shut off the source of Crimea's irrigation water. Plus Putin's legions have not yet conquered a land route to the choke point. At present the only way to get from Mother Russia to Crimea is across the water from the Kerch penisula or to make a big attack into Ukraine. To guarantee that approach will take an all-arms army. Masquerading the army as a bunch of rebels will be rather difficult and is likely to scare the hell out of other nations that have a Russian speaking populations but are members of NATO.

slug
01-22-2015, 04:55 PM
Gee...why do you think Putin wants to keep eastern ukraine from going NATO ?

Duncan Gibbs
01-22-2015, 10:48 PM
NATO has nothing to do with it. Putin hanging onto power in Russia is the real and only reason that the fires of Russian nationalism are being stoked. The overland route to Crimea is an absolute essential for Russia to hang onto the territory, otherwise Russia will be up for billions in infrastructure costs, as well as having to completely prop up Crimea, that territory having suddenly lost a significant amount of trade with Europe. Having stolen one territory under the guise of nationalism, why not thieve a bit more?

Russia is heading toward economic oblivion under the guy, and fast. There is significant opposition to his "small" war at home, and families of dead Russian soldiers are being threatened and silenced, not to mention having to repatriate the bodies from Ukraine. But this isn't widely reported because of severe restrictions of free speech, such as journalists being murdered. The death toll is over 200 since Putin took office, which makes his regime more deadly to journalists than ISIS and al-Queda combined.

Also don't forget the attempted assassination of Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 when he was standing for the presidency of Ukraine.

How anyone can say this is all excusable because of NATO, US foreign policy, or the genuine wishes of the Ukrainian people to escape the orbit of Russia is, quite frankly, astonishing.

This is all about one man and his nest of cronies hanging onto power.

If there was a more reasonable and democratic leader in Russia right now, the Saudis wouldn't be trying to squeeze the oil price down, because Russia and the USA might act together to stop them, and Russia may well have been admitted as a NATO member themselves.

PeterSibley
01-23-2015, 02:20 AM
NATO has nothing to do with it. Putin hanging onto power in Russia is the real and only reason that the fires of Russian nationalism are being stoked. The overland route to Crimea is an absolute essential for Russia to hang onto the territory, otherwise Russia will be up for billions in infrastructure costs, as well as having to completely prop up Crimea, that territory having suddenly lost a significant amount of trade with Europe. Having stolen one territory under the guise of nationalism, why not thieve a bit more?

Russia is heading toward economic oblivion under the guy, and fast. There is significant opposition to his "small" war at home, and families of dead Russian soldiers are being threatened and silenced, not to mention having to repatriate the bodies from Ukraine. But this isn't widely reported because of severe restrictions of free speech, such as journalists being murdered. The death toll is over 200 since Putin took office, which makes his regime more deadly to journalists than ISIS and al-Queda combined.

Also don't forget the attempted assassination of Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 when he was standing for the presidency of Ukraine.

How anyone can say this is all excusable because of NATO, US foreign policy, or the genuine wishes of the Ukrainian people to escape the orbit of Russia is, quite frankly, astonishing.

This is all about one man and his nest of cronies hanging onto power.

If there was a more reasonable and democratic leader in Russia right now, the Saudis wouldn't be trying to squeeze the oil price down, because Russia and the USA might act together to stop them, and Russia may well have been admitted as a NATO member themselves.

I think that option may have been offered and rejected .