PDA

View Full Version : Propane Shortage hits home.



skipper68
01-23-2014, 01:28 PM
We called to order 200 gallons, and were only allowed 100 gallons.
The driver said that our exports to China have more than doubled. This is causing a serious shortage, along with the cold weather through the USA.:pmad:

hokiefan
01-23-2014, 01:35 PM
Our exports may be up. But the real problem is the weather. A late, wet corn harvest that required a lot of propane to dry the corn cut into the relatively small local reserves. Then 2 deep cold snaps turned a skinny reserve into a big problem, especially in the Midwest. Its been reported that the DOT is relaxing driver time limits to allow both long-haul and local deliveries to almost keep up.

Cheers,

Bobby

skipper68
01-23-2014, 02:22 PM
This guy is our regular delivery guy, and he did say they are dividing up their supplies for everyone, not just the on call customers. It was up .30 cents a gallon also.

hokiefan
01-23-2014, 02:45 PM
This guy is our regular delivery guy, and he did say they are dividing up their supplies for everyone, not just the on call customers. It was up .30 cents a gallon also.

I've heard they are shorting orders all over the Midwest, trying to make sure everybody has some. That price increase is more reasonable than some I've seen in the news around here. The weather hasn't helped the long-haul deliveries any either. Very little propane (relative to the market usage) is stored away from the gulf and it isn't pipelined. Has to be delivered by truck, railcar, or barge. Here's hoping that we don't have a 3rd hard cold snap quickly and the system has a chance to catch up.

Cheers,

Bobby

skipper68
01-23-2014, 03:06 PM
Updated: Wednesday, January 22 2014, 05:50 AM EST Batavia, N.Y. -- People who use propane to keep warm say they are aware what they need to stay warm is in short supply and high demand. Reisdorf Oil & Propane in Batavia has seen an increase in business this year. “Of course we picked this year as our biggest growth year,” said Tony Peca, Sales and Marketing Manager. Increased business combined with the shortage of propane is making for a trying winter. “Our customers aren't being affected because we have a good supplier and we planned the potential for a problem,” said Peca, who started planning for this winter in 2013 when he saw the impact a great growing season in the Midwest was having on the propane supply. “Dealing with my supplier, I asked him at that time, is this going to affect us adversely in the future. He said, 'the only possible way this could affect us Tony, is if we have a cold snap right after the crop drying stopped,'” said Peca. “And of course we all know what happened as soon as fall ended. Winter started and propane isn't a product you can recoup real easily.”

Read More at: http://13wham.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/cold-weather-propane-shortage-8973.shtml The company that was storing the Propane under Seneca Lake, in it's old salt mine just went belly up, and our provider is buying their buiesness, he said. Weird. Edit- wrong company- that one is in Lyons.

rbgarr
01-23-2014, 03:28 PM
There are multiple, cascading issues that lead to the shortage here in Maine: http://www.kjonline.com/news/Propane_imports_may_help_ease_regional_shortage_th at_is_driving_up_prices_.html?pagenum=full

skipper68
01-23-2014, 03:53 PM
How soaring propane exports affect prices
By Ingrid Pan, CFA
December 30, 2013 12:46 AM http://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-propane-exports-affect-prices-054604159.htmlWhat’s driving higher propane prices and how it could affect your portfolio (Part 1 of 4)

Propane exports have increased significantly through 2013, and have spiked recently

Propane exports have increased throughout 2013. First quarter propane exports averaged ~150 thousand barrels per day, second quarter propane exports averaged ~180 thousand barrels per day, third quarter propane exports averaged ~230 barrels per day, and fourth quarter propane exports to date have averaged ~270 barrels per day. Most recently, the US Department of Energy reported that as of December 20, propane exports were at 370 thousand barrels per day.

Increased propane exports are a positive for domestic propane prices because they represent increased demand for domestic propane. U.S. propane prices have increased nearly 60% since mid-June—with much of the price increase likely due to increased demand from propane exports.
More propane export capacity coming online further boosts propane demand

Currently, domestic propane trades at a discount to international propane. This is because domestic propane production has continued to grow and despite a growing amount of propane exports, export capacity has been limited by a lack of infrastructure. However, this price disparity provides an economic incentive to build the necessary infrastructure to export propane. Midstream companies have already announced projects to build or expand propane export terminal facilities, which should result in increased propane exports and support for propane prices.

This year Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) finished an expansion of an export facility earlier this year and current propane deliveries are over 7.5 million barrels per month. EPD also recently announced an expansion project that will add 1.5 million barrels per month of capacity starting 1Q15. Additionally, the company announced construction of a second export terminal on the Gulf Coast with initial loading capacity of 6-6.5 million barrels per month of propane or butane, expected to be in service 4Q15. In total, the company expects to have loading capacity of 15-16 million barrels per month of low ethane propane and/or butane at its marine terminals.
Furthermore, Targa Resources Partners (NGLS) stated on its 3Q13 conference call that the first phase of its LPG (liquid petroleum gas) export expansion project at Galena Park and Mont Belvieu (located on the Gulf Coast) was completed, with operations having commenced in September. At the LPG export facility, Targa can export a variety of natural gas liquids including butane and propane. The expansion increases the company’s export capacity from 1-1.5 million barrels a month per 3.5-4 million barrels per month. Targa is also working on a second phase for the export expansion project that will add at least 2 million barrels, for total capacity of 5.5 to 6 million barrels per month. Phase two of the expansion is expected to be online in 3Q14. So China is more important than the citizens of the USA? It is not like we can lower our consumption, because the prices are raised. We are as insulated as we can be, without putting double paned windows on the boat! Keeping curtains closed and light bulbs on helps though- but not much. So far as of today we have used $1300.00. I'm sure it wont last till April. It used to cost $400.00 a winter. That was with 2 kerosun heaters years ago, that we keep in case the RV furnace is need an igniter or parts. Ughh..

PhaseLockedLoop
01-23-2014, 06:04 PM
There's no propane shortage. I was at the hardware store yesterday and bought a 16oz bottle of the stuff and there must've been almost a dozen more available. So that proves it.

skuthorp
01-23-2014, 06:14 PM
As soon as the US starts exporting propane the domestic market has to pay the export price, or so I heard a few months ago. We export natural gas from the west and the local price is about to make a very big jump. Whether this effects some long term contracts with China I do not know. The question is important as you wouldn't want to see your exports at one price being on-sold at a bigger one.
"If you think this is academic, think again. The report accepts that these price increases -- from a stable level about $3 a gigajoule to somewhere between $8 and $12 -- are imminent."
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/gas-prices-rise-as-domestic-gas-market-is-linked-to-global-market/story-e6frg9if-1226772537848#

Flying Orca
01-23-2014, 06:21 PM
If you think fossil fuel shortages are bad now, take action now to help your descendants, for they are going to have it much worse (as will you if you live long enough). They'll thank you.

skuthorp
01-23-2014, 06:26 PM
If you think fossil fuel shortages are bad now, take action now to help your descendants, for they are going to have it much worse (as will you if you live long enough). They'll thank you.
Won't happen, till one day, poof, it's effectively gone. Long before that though governments will be sidelining all supplies for essential services, like the military, and the chemical companies, and the priveliged few.

AussieBarney
01-23-2014, 06:58 PM
Wow, Having an order for 200 gallons of propane. This is pumped into a tank that you own and maintain? double wow!!! What will your annual consumption be? I ask because I live in part of the world that does not get below zero. I cannot conceive of life in such a climate.

Flying Orca
01-23-2014, 07:01 PM
I cut the grass again today
The diesel's getting low
I don't know how much longer it will last
I could hear the neighbours say
It would serve him right
To get a visit from the government
But I don't see things their way
And I won't play along with the games they're playing...

- Jon Boden, "Has-Been Cavalry", Songs from the Floodplain

(an amazing post-apocalyptic and post-rock album, 100% Boden with a couple of co-opted trad melodies, brilliant lyrics and haunting music - Oystagirl calls it a "graphic novel")

Flying Orca
01-23-2014, 07:03 PM
Wow, Having an order for 200 gallons of propane. This is pumped into a tank that you own and maintain? double wow!!! What will your annual consumption be? I ask because I live in part of the world that does not get below zero. I cannot conceive of life in such a climate.

Just imagine what it's like here, then - we have gas piped into our houses so we can run a furnace all day and night to keep our pipes from freezing!

skipper68
01-23-2014, 09:13 PM
Yes, we have 2 -100 gallon tanks to go into the boat. We are covered, but even had ice on the inside of our windows!
It was -9 below F. We usually fill up 2 and a half times a year.
THIS was 2 and a half today. It is a very energy efficient RV furnace, under my butt as I respond.
We can get help on this bill, but hope this is IT! After this, another 200 will cause problems.
My Tequila budget! LOL!!!!;)
Actually, we are glad they came out. Not realizing 200 gallons is an imposition, with .30 cents more?
I don't even want to know next weeks price.

Chip-skiff
01-23-2014, 11:18 PM
Are the connectors on your propane inlet pipes the same sort that fit the portable steel bottles available at hardware stores? Or can you find an adapter?

In that case, you could get a few cylinders to stockpile for worst case scenarios.

skipper68
01-23-2014, 11:24 PM
We have a double regulator, that we can use one, the other or both. Switch between the two. We check them with windex for leaks. Heck, Don't I WISH! It is not them, it is dang cold out!!!!! Our furnace is running GREAT! My gosh tho, BRRRrrrrrrrr
Says 2 out now.