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David W Pratt
06-25-2012, 01:48 PM
Ok, what does the collective intelligence have to say about when/if real estate values will recover?

dredbob
06-25-2012, 04:52 PM
Ok, what does the collective intelligence have to say about when/if real estate values will recover?

If past experience is in any way indicitive of future trends, I can say that values will rise sharply just after I sell my next house.

Bob

RodSBT
06-25-2012, 05:10 PM
From my crystal ball the market is going down some more, maybe another 30% in value. It will then stay that way for sometime, like years. Until the fed/central banks quit dumping funny money all over the place and the system purges itself don't expect much to change except maybe get worse, regardless of who is the potus in Jan. 2013.

Have fun :(.

hokiefan
06-25-2012, 05:43 PM
Depends on where you live. Places like south Florida and Detroit may never recover. Peoria never experienced the tremendous bubble of south Florida, so didn't have the huge drop either. There was a drop, but not as pronounced. I read there are signs of recovery here, not being in the real estate market in any real way I couldn't tell you for sure. We also didn't have a whole industry devastated like Detroit did.

Real estate is decidely local.

Cheers,

Bobby

Uncle Duke
06-25-2012, 06:31 PM
Depends on where you live...

Real estate is decidely local.

+1....
Here in Northern VA, values went down but not as much as "average". And they're coming back up faster than "average".
But the economy here is mostly Government/Military driven, and with the whole "base closure/ realignment" we're locally OK.
Demand driven, as always....no idea (from here) how that works in R.I.

George Jung
06-25-2012, 06:33 PM
In Lincoln, Nebraska, the real estate market has definitely 'taken off' since this spring, and is projected to continue - until it doesn't. Highest valuations in nebraska, much higher than Omaha. I don't know why. But if the economy hits the fan again, I could see a major drop - and since I'm just now buying, that's probably where the smart money is.

ccmanuals
06-25-2012, 06:51 PM
Construction has definitely picked up here. But, values are pretty flat and never went up or down.

Dan McCosh
06-25-2012, 07:14 PM
I would say real estate prices will "recover" shortly after .com stock prices recover.

B_B
06-25-2012, 07:19 PM
From my crystal ball the market is going down some more, maybe another 30% in value. It will then stay that way for sometime, like years. Until the fed/central banks quit dumping funny money all over the place and the system purges itself don't expect much to change except maybe get worse, regardless of who is the potus in Jan. 2013.

Have fun :(.
funny money causes inflation - i.e. things have higher numerical values
dumping funny money into the market makes things more expensive (as in Zimbabwe where a loaf of bread costs $16 million (http://digitaljournal.com/article/252707)).

Waddie
06-25-2012, 08:03 PM
Real estate is local, but historically home values have tracked wages, so as wages went up home values went up. Until the big boom hit, with cheap money and loose lending. I suspect values have a little ways to fall yet, but some areas are recovering value now. Rental construction is way up, and is counted as housing construction. McMansions are making a big comeback on raw land. Rural home building on the edges of towns (like Las Vegas) is up because that's about the only no down payment loans available now. This chart is four years old but you get the idea.

http://i1134.photobucket.com/albums/m615/Waddie51/homevalues.jpg

http://www.savingadvice.com/forums/general-discussion/45588-home-value-vs-average-salary-over-time.html

regards,
Waddie

Peter Malcolm Jardine
06-25-2012, 08:40 PM
Real estate in my area took a dip of about 8%, but housing starts are still good. Real estate becomes more valuable when people want to live there, and can find an economy to support them.

RodSBT
06-25-2012, 08:43 PM
funny money causes inflation - i.e. things have higher numerical values
dumping funny money into the market makes things more expensive (as in Zimbabwe where a loaf of bread costs $16 million (http://digitaljournal.com/article/252707)).


Funny money causes commodities to go up. If you have to pick between food and a new house...you're gonna rent, if you can afford it. I doubt the farms that were overrun by the "veterans" (kicking the white farmers off) are worth much today in Zim..no one can afford the seed or fuel to make the farms profitable let alone break even.

Mrleft8
06-26-2012, 05:35 AM
The current real estate market is being driven by foreign "cash investors", not local people buying homes with a mortgage.
If you're in an area where foreign investors want to be, you're going to do well, until some brain trust decides to make it difficult for foreigners to buy property here. BUT..... Because these are cash purchases, the banks aren't making the profits they like, so we can expect them to be behind some legislation to limit foreign cash purchases....
This is also holding the rest of the RE market back, because the areas that aren't "hot", are largely being ignored by the larger RE investment companies in the USA..... More commissions to be made representing a cash buyer in a hot market from Russia, or Argentina, than from a local home buyer from suburban East Providence.....

skuthorp
06-26-2012, 06:08 AM
An acquaintance is part of a group that buy your real estate, but they've gotten their fingers burned lately by some of your less than honest 'agents'. But as I told him Caveat emptor. If it's too cheap then it's probably a dog.

Meanwhile economic events in europe seem to be moving inevitably to a disaster which will effect us all if it occurs.

Dan McCosh
06-26-2012, 06:56 AM
Depends on where you live. Places like south Florida and Detroit may never recover. Peoria never experienced the tremendous bubble of south Florida, so didn't have the huge drop either. There was a drop, but not as pronounced. I read there are signs of recovery here, not being in the real estate market in any real way I couldn't tell you for sure. We also didn't have a whole industry devastated like Detroit did.

Real estate is decidely local.

Cheers,

Bobby FWIW, the main reason for the big drop in house prices in Detroit is due to having a much larger percentage of single-family homes than most cities, which makes the prices reflect what most people can afford, and the basic cost of construction. The prices began dropping seven or eight years before the most recent cutbacks in manufacturing and engineering services. That followed a speculative bubble driven by financing. There has been little growth, and some losses in population in Michigan dating back to the mid-1970s, but house prices went crazy anyway.

Figment
06-26-2012, 08:26 AM
Not this year.
The house we sold for 255 exactly one year ago was just listed for 260, and a quick look at the comparables make that look like a wish.

Nicholas Scheuer
06-26-2012, 08:31 AM
Two huge factors loom; Baby Boom is O-V-E-R, and the financial collapse followed by foreclosures and unemployment has resulted in far too many fine homes for sale cheap.

Dan McCosh
06-26-2012, 08:35 AM
Two huge factors loom; Baby Boom is O-V-E-R, and the financial collapse followed by foreclosures and unemployment has resulted in far too many fine homes for sale cheap. The baby boom is just entering the work force, looking for housing. Houses aren't cheap, just priced lower than they were a few years ago.

George Jung
06-26-2012, 05:28 PM
Predictions I'm seeing (and no, not from the realtors!) is that house prices here will be higher by yearend, and certainly in five years. Not sure how folks can take paycuts, and still buy ever more expensive homes.

brad9798
06-26-2012, 05:42 PM
Prices are up about 1.3% as of late ... things are looking up!!!