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wardd
06-08-2012, 10:35 AM
The North Carolina Senate’s Agriculture, Environment and Natural Resources Committee has approved a bill that restricts state agencies’ ability to take global warming into account when making sea-level rise projections.The language in the bill was toned down from the version that had been circulating (http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/north_carolina_sea_level_global_warming.php) — the original version of the bill stated starkly that rates of sea-level rise could use only historical data, extrapolated linearly, despite the fact that most scientists expect sea-levels to rise faster over the next century as a result of global warming — but the version of the bill approved Thursday still contains the following language:

[Rates of sea-level rise] shall be determined using statistically significant, peer-reviewed historical data generated using generally accepted scientific and statistical techniques. Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends.



http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/nc_senate_committee_approves_sea-level_rise_bill.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

John Smith
06-08-2012, 11:00 AM
We are doomed.

wardd
06-08-2012, 11:05 AM
We are doomed.

not nc, the sea won't rise there

David W Pratt
06-08-2012, 11:10 AM
That doesn't seem awful. Using historical data makes sense, unless I am missing something. I am no littoral expert, but I know, in this neck of the woods, you can find ample evidence of sea level rises by digging into beaches.

ljb5
06-08-2012, 11:20 AM
That doesn't seem awful. Using historical data makes sense, unless I am missing something. I am no littoral expert, but I know, in this neck of the woods, you can find ample evidence of sea level rises by digging into beaches.

The problem is if there is a change in rate, as most scientist believe there is.

Basically, NC is trying to lock-in the rate of increase as was seen from 1900 to 2010 -- and use the assumption that the rate was constant over that time.

If, for example, the rate of rise from 1900 to 1950 was less than it was from 1950 to 2010, then stubborn adherence to the early part of the century leads to under-estimation of the current rate--- and severe underestimation of the future rate.

A proper model would give more weight to recent data. After all, the environment of 2012 is much more similar to 2010 than to 1910.

But the real problem here is not mathematics -- -it's political.

What nonsense it is for the government to try to dictate how scientists can make their measurements.

Arizona Bay
06-08-2012, 11:25 AM
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/nc_senate_committee_approves_sea-level_rise_bill.php?ref=fpnewsfeed I guess that means the Gov. will keep bailing out the rich folks on the Outer Banks as their houses wash away. Insurance companies won't touch them.

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
06-08-2012, 02:38 PM
The text does not specify how far back into history one may look - choose your time frame with care and almost any rate can be justified.

skuthorp
06-08-2012, 05:26 PM
Our conservative state government does not believe in sea level rises either and has abolished planning regulations that restricted development too close to the sea. Their developer mates are very pleased, but if I was buying a block I'd want a signed document from the relevant minister personally guaranteeing the sea wouldn't rise, or an insurance company willing to provide cover. I imagine neither document would be forthcoming.

skipper68
06-08-2012, 10:55 PM
Have they denied gravity yet? Might need to buy lead..No denying facts, or nature. SFB.UGHH

Keith Wilson
06-09-2012, 07:56 AM
You can't make this stuff up; it's too silly even for the The Onion. NC is normally more sensible these days, but the Radical Republicans are feeling their oats. It might be good to repeat my signature line.


"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, (or politics, or religion)
for nature cannot be fooled."

Richard Feynman

LeeG
06-09-2012, 08:00 AM
it's a little like Romney's energy plan "The United States is blessed with a cornucopia of carbon-based energy resources. Developing them has been a pathway to prosperity for the nation in the past and offers similar promise for the future."

David W Pratt
06-09-2012, 10:56 AM
I remember reading that some state passed a law declaring pi=4

Old Dryfoot
06-09-2012, 12:33 PM
What a pile of blathering idiots! OMFG.... what a bunch of backazzwards flat earth thinking.

George Jung
06-09-2012, 12:51 PM
so... the laws of nature haven't changed, right? Still can't cure stupid?

How about voting laws - is it still legal to vote them out of office?

Keith Wilson
06-09-2012, 10:31 PM
I remember reading that some state passed a law declaring pi=43.2, actually. Indiana, 1897; passed the House, died in the Senate, and never became law. That fact makes me feel a little better about humanity. You can read about it here. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill)

Tom Montgomery
06-09-2012, 10:51 PM
Hmmm... So North Carolina becomes the anti-science state in the same year that Indiana becomes the low-wage state.

Guess what they have in common?

FORWARD INTO THE PAST!

LeeG
06-10-2012, 08:14 AM
drat, they were shamed into acknowledging a higher authority than their own, those insidious elites have done it again!!

http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/n-carolina-senate-decides-to-include-science-in-sea-level-projections-after-all/

This attracted significant national attention, leading the Committee to pass a modified version that tones down the initial language. Now, the Coastal Resources Commission can consider accelerated rates of sea level rise, provided "such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends." That language appears to provide enough space for the CRC to use the best available scientific information, provided "historic trends" isn't limited to written history.

Although the initial bill was an unfortunate attempt to inject political considerations into a decision about what is largely a scientific question, North Carolina at least seems to be recognizing that sea level rise is a reality. In neighboring Virginia, an ad-hoc collection of activists has apparently been attempting to block any planning whatsoever.

LeeG
06-10-2012, 08:20 AM
Colbert contribution

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/05/495200/must-see-colbert-report-on-north-carolina-gop-bill-to-make-use-of-climate-science-illegal/?mobile=nc