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John Smith
04-03-2012, 06:35 AM
Last night I saw a poll that reflects a dramatic change in the support of women, especially under 50, from the republicans to the democrats: at least from Romney to Obama.

I expect this will impact elections at all levels. I also think that women in that age group who have taken for granted their access to birth control and abortion will be highly energized. From this group, IMO, we will get women who have been part of that great nonvoting public who will be voting this year.

Limbaugh is on yesterday denying this: women, he reminds us, buy gas, too.

For many years the emotional "wedge" issues have played to the favor of the Republicans. I see a change in that. Gay marriage, a few elections ago, brought out voters who were against it, and they helped elect republicans. I believe that issue now brings out more pro gay marriage voters and would help the democrats.

By the time November gets here, every woman in America is going to be well aware of Republican positions on Planned Parenthood, NOW, and the laws being passed in states run by that party and how they are detrimental to women's health.

Soon we will have a recall election in Wisconsin. Walker has big money supporting him from donors like the Koch brothers. We are about to see if the money can buy the votes. I expect the female vote will make the difference here, also.

I don't know if Wisconsin has a Stand Your Ground law or not, but the voting public across the nation has been educated about these laws, and which party has been passing them.

I don't know how many voters are going to vote on gas prices. I'd like to think that most have long enough memories to recall gas going up under other presidents. Who knows?

There are party divides here that are far more clear than they usually are: women's rights, labor rights, SYG laws, and the general "don't raise taxes on the wealthy at the expense of everyone else" philosophy.

As these take hold around the country, the economy will be but one of many issues the voters vote on. The Republicans, IMO, are on the wrong side of all of them.

Paul Pless
04-03-2012, 06:40 AM
By the time November gets here, every woman in America is going to be well aware of Republican positions on Planned Parenthood, NOW, and the laws being passed in states run by that party and how they are detrimental to women's health. Don't bet on it, Americans are famously misinformed politically.

John Smith
04-03-2012, 06:50 AM
Don't bet on it, Americans are famously misinformed politically.

Especially those who watch Fox.

Be thee not surprised if the public is not better informed this election about women's rights issues, about Stand your Ground laws, and Grover Norquist, among other things.

The economy has been the issue in many elections, and hasn't brought forth many of those who don't vote. These other issues, IMO, will bring many of those people out.

We'll know in November.

We may know in June, as this might impact Wisonsins recall election.

Paul Pless
04-03-2012, 06:54 AM
Grover who?

delecta
04-03-2012, 07:01 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/04/02/false_reports_gop_not_losing_women_in_contraceptio n_war_on_women_romney_obama_2012_gender_gap.html

Hmmmm

Meli
04-03-2012, 07:38 AM
^ Fairly typical response from a certain type of person.

Concordia 33
04-03-2012, 09:11 AM
Last night I saw a poll that reflects a dramatic change in the support of women, especially under 50, from the republicans to the democrats: at least from Romney to Obama.

I expect this will impact elections at all levels. I also think that women in that age group who have taken for granted their access to birth control and abortion will be highly energized. From this group, IMO, we will get women who have been part of that great nonvoting public who will be voting this year.

Limbaugh is on yesterday denying this: women, he reminds us, buy gas, too.

For many years the emotional "wedge" issues have played to the favor of the Republicans. I see a change in that. Gay marriage, a few elections ago, brought out voters who were against it, and they helped elect republicans. I believe that issue now brings out more pro gay marriage voters and would help the democrats.

By the time November gets here, every woman in America is going to be well aware of Republican positions on Planned Parenthood, NOW, and the laws being passed in states run by that party and how they are detrimental to women's health.

Soon we will have a recall election in Wisconsin. Walker has big money supporting him from donors like the Koch brothers. We are about to see if the money can buy the votes. I expect the female vote will make the difference here, also.

I don't know if Wisconsin has a Stand Your Ground law or not, but the voting public across the nation has been educated about these laws, and which party has been passing them.

I don't know how many voters are going to vote on gas prices. I'd like to think that most have long enough memories to recall gas going up under other presidents. Who knows?

There are party divides here that are far more clear than they usually are: women's rights, labor rights, SYG laws, and the general "don't raise taxes on the wealthy at the expense of everyone else" philosophy.

As these take hold around the country, the economy will be but one of many issues the voters vote on. The Republicans, IMO, are on the wrong side of all of them.

Maybe not as big of a difference as you think.......




Three days later, The Washington Post gave thestory (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-suffer-among-female-voters/2012/03/08/gIQANzfM1R_print.html) front-page treatment. The article began: “The fragile gains Republicans had been making among female voters have been erased, a shift that has coincided with what has become a national shouting match over reproductive issues.” Except the trends did not coincide.


The Post cited the same poll as New York magazine. Thus, it too wrongly reported that Romney had lost women’s support over the course of this debate. The Post also referenced another question in the NBC/Journal survey: Which party would you like to see control Congress? The Post reported that Democrats’ four-percentage-point advantage on the generic ballot in the summer had widened to a 15-point advantage in the most recent poll. That was one way of framing the facts. It was just not an accurate way.


Democrats’ margin with women was indeed four points in August 2011. It was 16 points in October (13 in December, seven in November). Instead of cherry-picking a date, we should consider the time span that actually coincided with the contraception row. In the most recent NBC/Journal poll, which the Post cited, Democrats on the congressional ballot actually polled 14 points ahead among women. What about before the debate began? Democrats’ had a 15-point advantage with women in the same poll, on the same question, in mid-January. The Post’s big story was wrong in every way.


The day after the Post story, The New York Times ran a piece (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/11/us/politics/centrist-women-tell-of-disenchantment-with-gop.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print) headlined “Centrist Women Tell of Disenchantment With Republicans." The reporter, like Rich, cited a singular poll to prove Romney was losing women over the course of this debate. She noted that Romney’s female support stood at 37 percent in the mid-February CBS News/New York Times poll. But a month earlier, Romney performed only two percentage points better with women in the same poll -- a shift also within the margin of error. By mid-March, on the other side of the contraception debate, Romney’s standing with women returned to precisely where it was before the controversy, 39 percent.


The contraception firestorm concerned substantive differences over women’s health policy, feminism, religious liberty and abortion. But the heated debate over women’s issues, which began at the close of January, did not cost Republicans women’s support. Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling (D) exhibit the same trend. Gallup found that Romney actually improved with women between mid-December and mid-February, a few weeks into the contraception debate. Obama’s job performance rating with women, in the Gallup poll, has remained steady throughout the debate, bobbing around 50 percent since the beginning of the year.


The pillars of our print media are especially prone to these mistakes on social issues. The data is misreported on subjects ranging from immigration policy (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/04/18/the_real_story_of_americans_immigration_views__105 217.html) to substantive (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/13/what_white_women_want_surprisingly_the_gop_99144.h tml), and sometimes silly (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/03/25/valkyrie_aside_genders_predictably_differ_on_war_l ibya_men_women_gender_gap_obama_clinton__109349.ht ml), analyses of the gender gap.


The mistakes are not uniformly one-sided. Sometimes it’s conventional wisdom that endures despite the facts. “Obama risks Catholic vote with birth-control mandate,” went a Reuters headline (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-usa-catholic-birthcontrol-idUSTRE8161ZT20120207) early in the debate. There has not been a “Catholic vote” for decades in American politics. The rate of attendance at church, not what church Americans attend (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/21/AR2006112101801.html), strongly relates to modern voting. Religious Catholics vote more like religious Protestants than other Catholics. Yet, more often than not, poor analysis on social issues colors leftward. One reason, as MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said at the outset of this latest bout, the media has a blind spot on cultural issues.


Republicans should be concerned. The GOP nominee cannot win with only 37 percent of the female vote. Yet early head-to-head polls are not historically predictive (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/03/04/its_absurd_to_think_obama_has_already_won_romney_g eorge_will_goldwater_113359.html). George W. Bush, like Romney, earned only 37 percent of the female vote in the CBS poll in February of 2000. But Bush won 43 percent of women on Election Day.

Paul Pless
04-03-2012, 09:40 AM
For example, the individual provisions of Obamacare are VERY popular, as opposed to the rather dumb poll question which assesses it's overall popularitySpin it big guy. :D Sure, all the 'free stuff' is popular; but the mandate ain't. You can't have all the other stuff without that unconstitutional bit now can you!

John Smith
04-03-2012, 05:33 PM
Maybe not as big of a difference as you think.......


Only time will tell.

Now we have a new Court decision to add to the mix: strip searches any time the cops want to.

One thing I forgot to mention is Citizens United. The public may grow very weary of all the negative ads this year.

You'll note I did not mention religion in my posts here.