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George.
11-30-2011, 07:46 AM
The US and Europe are deleveraging, and will be for a while.

The Euro "crisis" is mostly a bottleneck, where banks that are deleveraging are trying to reduce their exposure to sovereign debt too fast and too in unison. Long term, things will be fine.

Most growth in the next decades will be in emerging markets.

Global capital wants freedom to invest in these markets, while the US and Europe, where most global capital is concentrated, want to force it to invest at home.

Best historical analogy is still 1873, with the BRICS and a few others in the role of the US West. Except that in 1873 people from old Europe could follow the capital West, the locals having been cleared out at gunpoint.

Paul Pless
11-30-2011, 07:48 AM
Most growth in the next decades will be in emerging markets.Ain't this usually the case?

Tylerdurden
11-30-2011, 07:53 AM
Problem is in 1873 most currencies were backed by gold. Now most currencies are backed by "Full Faith and Credit"

How do you think the Faith is working out?

RonW
11-30-2011, 08:19 AM
what does this mean, or you think it means and will be the consequences of ?


The US and Europe are deleveraging, and will be for a while.

George.
11-30-2011, 08:41 AM
Consequences are the usual: little or no growth for a while.

Tylerdurden
11-30-2011, 08:48 AM
Or Global conflict rising from it. Tends to be the way things go if history is a guide.

RonW
11-30-2011, 09:10 AM
Or Global conflict rising from it. Tends to be the way things go if history is a guide.

Yep, nothing like being creative and hustling up a little business..Let's see, how about making a few bombs and charging
the taxpayers for them (with a little profit added in ) blow the hell out of a few countries, and when things get slow,
then make loans for the people that you blew the hell out of to rebuild with..
Hey nothing like being creative..

George Jung
11-30-2011, 09:25 AM
That's all well and good, George. (how ya doing, by the way?)

but more importantly, where do I invest now?

I'd like to be able to retire, have enough sheckels (sp) to buy a lil' swampland in Brazil,

maybe make it a wildlife preserve.

Know what I mean? But... I need guidance!

George Jung
11-30-2011, 09:35 AM
Why yes, I do!

That man is a genius!

(That what yer lookin' fer?)

Tylerdurden
11-30-2011, 09:36 AM
Everything is fine now seeing as all the players got their favorite breakfast cereal this morning. Just don't ask whats for lunch or who who eats you for dinner.

George Jung
11-30-2011, 09:37 AM
Ahhhh...

Something to look forward to!

peb
11-30-2011, 12:52 PM
The US and Europe are deleveraging, and will be for a while.

The Euro "crisis" is mostly a bottleneck, where banks that are deleveraging are trying to reduce their exposure to sovereign debt too fast and too in unison. Long term, things will be fine.

Most growth in the next decades will be in emerging markets.

Global capital wants freedom to invest in these markets, while the US and Europe, where most global capital is concentrated, want to force it to invest at home.

Best historical analogy is still 1873, with the BRICS and a few others in the role of the US West. Except that in 1873 people from old Europe could follow the capital West, the locals having been cleared out at gunpoint.

An analogy to 1873 is not good. The US, which by your analogy included the equivilent of modern day emerging markets, experienced slow growth until 1879. England and parts of Europe experienced a depressioni until 1896. It was called the Great Depression until the 1930s, now is referred to the Long Depression. "Long term things will be fine"??? I guess you are really taking a long view.

George.
11-30-2011, 02:05 PM
That's all well and good, George. (how ya doing, by the way?)

but more importantly, where do I invest now?

I'd like to be able to retire, have enough sheckels (sp) to buy a lil' swampland in Brazil,

maybe make it a wildlife preserve.

Know what I mean? But... I need guidance!

Our best investment was in cutting our expenses. We spend today a third of what we did fifteen years ago. Our income is less than half, so we come out ahead and have a bit left to spend on wild ideas.

Waddie
11-30-2011, 02:13 PM
I wouldn't count too much on those emerging markets to maintain fast growth rates. I think they may slow down to 5 - 6%. Still better than the West.

regards,
Waddie

George.
11-30-2011, 02:37 PM
An analogy to 1873 is not good. The US, which by your analogy included the equivilent of modern day emerging markets, experienced slow growth until 1879. England and parts of Europe experienced a depressioni until 1896. It was called the Great Depression until the 1930s, now is referred to the Long Depression. "Long term things will be fine"??? I guess you are really taking a long view.

I think the analogy holds: the US (emerging market) resumed growth sooner, and continued to grow cyclically for decades. England and parts of Europe (established economies with whole sectors that couldn't compete with emerging producers) nearly stagnated for a while.

Nowadays, of course, the whole cycle is probably faster, but I think the essence is similar.