PDA

View Full Version : Full Employment - One Take



David G
03-30-2011, 01:38 AM
From Chmura --

http://www.chmuraecon.com/default.aspx


http://cdn-1.cea-chmura.com/widgets/howlong/how-long-chart-2011-02.png

Note that - as with any forecast - there are assumptions made. I've seen both more and less optimistic estimates.

Waddie
03-30-2011, 02:29 AM
From Chmura --

http://www.chmuraecon.com/default.aspx


http://cdn-1.cea-chmura.com/widgets/howlong/how-long-chart-2011-02.png


Note that - as with any forecast - there are assumptions made. I've seen both more and less optimistic estimates.

If I'm reading the chart right, it takes us until Dec 2016 to get back up to the numbers of the 2007 peak. That growth won't give us back full employment as we need an (approx) additional 3 million new jobs pr year (15 million additional over 5 years) on top of gaining back lost jobs to achieve full employment. Full employment in 2007 might have been 137.95 but by 2017 full employment would require about 152.95.

regards,
Waddie

David G
03-30-2011, 02:37 AM
Waddie,

That's the way I'd read it also. Bottom line... we're headed in the right direction so far, but it's gonna take a while. A long while.

Waddie
03-30-2011, 02:13 PM
This is a lot of new jobs we will be needing.

I wish we were focusing on new job creation NOW!! I understand that deficit reduction, in the long run, might result in a healthier economy, but I don't think we can wait for it to start moving the job numbers upward--if it does.

Here are a couple of ideas that might help in the short term---or maybe they're worthless. But here goes;

1. How about a tax credit equal to half of the salary for hiring a new employee (but can't be countered by any layoffs or retirements) for a period of two years? (So your number of employees overall must grow to be eligible).

2. How about a special tax credit to employees who are eligible for retirement as an incentive to retire. Could be for a five year period.

3. How about a public works program for younger workers, and older ones who wish to retrain, that combines apprenticeship training with real work on public projects? It could run for a few years.

4. I think we could make some judicious cuts in military spending and closing corporate loopholes to at least partially offset the costs.

What do you think?

regards,
Waddie

David G
03-31-2011, 01:55 AM
Waddie,

On the face of it, I have no quarrel with your prescriptions. Frankly, though, I'm not in that mode. I don't really try and do the analysis unless I'm really ready to dig into a question. Plus, the number crunching portion of a full and fair analysis would be beyond my rusty skills. So I have no idea if those four are the best ideas.

One of the problems of public policy is that far too little thought seems to go into examining and imagining the potential fallout from the gremlins that run the Dept. of Unintended Consequences. Upon further examination, your notions could turn out to be anything from potentially disastrous to merely pointless to bloody brilliant. Where are FDR and his advisers when we need them? One of my concerns about Obama is my sense that he has neither the gravitas nor the chutzpah that FDR had. Nor does he have the acerbically brilliant wife to help keep him from going too far astray from common sense (at least as far as I can tell).

There are some economists that suggest this major recession is and will be the catalyst for a structural change in the economy - with fewer jobs required in an increasingly automated, computerized, and nonetheless ever more productive world. It's conceivable. Major shocks tend to leave their mark. It's not clear to me what such a world would look like... or whether it would be an improvement.

Though, I do remember a sci-fi novel (Robert Heinlein?) that postulated a world where a significant minority of the population did not work at all, but subsisted on a Citizen's Dividend. Some of them became couch potatoes, some artists, some explored their spirituality, and so on. To the extent that one was more driven, one could work, earn more money, and live a different sort of life. The extreme automation, and high productivity of the working population made the Citizen's Dividend possible. That, and the fact that they'd outgrown wars. Made for an interesting thought experiment.

Waddie
03-31-2011, 03:11 AM
I actually do think we are experiencing an economic sea change. I've been posting that productivity gains from computers, automation and so forth are really starting to have a big influence on the long term employment picture. Outsourcing isn't helping. I hope people train for the new types of jobs or ones that can't be outsourced or computerized, like health care or auto mechanic. There are now, and will be in the future, opportunities out there, but not many for the unskilled or semi-skilled. Just too many people for the number of jobs in those categories.

regards,
Waddie