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View Full Version : 2012 Whose actually going to run?



John Smith
03-08-2011, 03:19 PM
I don't believe Palin or Gingrich will actually run. They make more money elsewhere, especially if they look like they're running.

Huckabee, I think, is toast.

Romney has problems related to his health care hypocrisy.

So, who?

I also think Wisconsin's publicity, and that of some other states, is changing the entire dynamic, and any republican who runs is going to have a problem.

From my view, they have to side with Gov. Walker to satisfy their base, but side with the protesters to win the general election.

I imagine they know all this.

skuthorp
03-08-2011, 03:26 PM
I was wondering myself, from here it seems that Obama will get back though I may be wrong, and I thought that any GOP candidate this time might be part of a wider strategy for the end of Obama's term. Possibly those candidates are not even on the horizon. I guess you'd be looking at those in their late 30's and 40's? Don't think I fancy another Bush frankly, but then I don't get a vote. For that matter the Dem's will be doing the same thing. Hillary again?

John of Phoenix
03-08-2011, 03:38 PM
I'd like to offer up AZ governor Jan Brewer. She has her high school diploma, a papered over DUI, she's more xenophobic than you'll find anywhere, badly inarticulate and not very bright. There's more but I don't want to brag on her too much.

switters
03-08-2011, 03:41 PM
in 2016 we may see Hickenlooper run for the dems, and that would please me greatly.

Newt may get a VP slot for the red team 2012. No idea who thinks they even have a chance on the red team side for president. Having said that, I was confident that we would send one our blue team players back to congress this last go around with no problem. There was a problem, she never connected with the rural part of her constituency, even though she was going to be a better representative for them also. I agree that Mitt will probably get the party nomination, doubt that he will will.

Bob Adams
03-08-2011, 03:49 PM
We'll all be dead anyway, so who cares?

jack grebe
03-08-2011, 04:12 PM
We'll all be dead anyway, so who cares?
Yep...........................


I, however, believe Jeb will have his best shot in 2012.
Then the Dems will embark on another 8 yrs. of cat calls
from the peanut gallery.

B_B
03-08-2011, 05:11 PM
I'd agree with you on Palin; she's uneducated
I don't think it's ok to say someone with a Bachelor's degree is 'uneducated'. Uncouth, maybe. Unskilled, possibly. Unread, definitely. Unable, sure. But 'uneducated', no.

leikec
03-08-2011, 05:45 PM
I think it is Romney's time. The republicans always seem to go for the establishment candidate who has waited his turn, and it is Romney's turn to be the nominee.

And I see him as the most qualified candidate...in what is currently a very weak republican field of potential candidates.

Jeb Bush would be a risky pick for the republicans but he is easily as electable as Romney. If the republicans picked nominees as the democrats tend to do, they might consider Scott Brown--but he has no chance given the far-right propensity of the republican primary voter.


Jeff C

Tom Montgomery
03-08-2011, 05:53 PM
Mitt Romney will never be able to overcome the conservative rightwing Christian prejudice against Mormons.

leikec
03-08-2011, 05:56 PM
Mitt Romney will never be able to overcome the conservative rightwing Christian prejudice against Mormons.


I agree, that his religion his a huge problem for him to overcome, but I also think he is the next guy in line--and it can be amazing how a party base can rationalize away problems once they've been given their marching orders....

Jeff C

wardd
03-08-2011, 06:21 PM
sharon angle running mate bachman

watson1990
03-08-2011, 06:26 PM
Romney / Rubio ?

leikec
03-08-2011, 06:43 PM
Nor will he overcome his flip-flopping.... see my thread on 'Romney 3.0'.

Is he a moderate to almost liberal Republican who supported the prototype for ObamaCare in Massachusetts?
Is he the social conservative pandering to the evangelical and fundamentalist base?
Is he the economic conservative pumping the 'deficit' shtick?

There's enough there to turn off various sectors of his base, while turning on others... but not enough to keep ALL the base together, as well as gather support from moderates and independents... which, as has been demonstrated more than enough, is necessary to win the Presidency.

Politics changes about as frequently as New England changes it's weather... and there's a LONG way to go.. but I'm feeling pretty positive about Obama's re-election right now.



there's enough there to turn off various sectors of his base, while turning on others... but not enough to keep ALL the base together, as well as gather support from moderates and independents... which, as has been demonstrated more than enough, is necessary to win the Presidency.


You could say that about any non-incumbent-political candidate, from any party, in almost any modern presidential election.

I don't think it is a factor to the degree you say--and I also believe that the republican presidential primary has historically been much more easily manipulated by "machine" politics over the last 5 or 6 election cycles; the party bosses have much more control over the process when compared to the democratic race. It will be interesting to see if this holds true in 2012.


Jeff C

C. Ross
03-08-2011, 06:53 PM
There's a Tea Party of the left, too. Just as loony as the one on the right. http://protestobama.org/

wardd
03-08-2011, 06:55 PM
the republican party has commercial factions that support candidates through various think tanks and organizations like the chamber of commerce

unfortunately they have to get past the base that has a social agenda

leikec
03-08-2011, 06:57 PM
I don't agree. Ronald Reagan gathered support from ALL of the base of his party, along with moderates and independents... and he used to be a Democrat!



WHAT party bosses? I don't think the Republican party HAS any 'bosses' like were once common in politics. The emergency of the Tea Party has disintegrated party unity.


Reagan did just what you say--in 1980...but he also failed to get over the top in 1976. He spent the next four years assembling the components for a successful run in 1980.

Please note that I am talking about PRIMARY lelections here, not the general election--and I made the comment about your words applying to almost any candidate, I was referring to their status before the primaries....

Allow me to catch you later on the "party bosses" aspect--I've got to go work for a bit....




Jeff C

ishmael
03-08-2011, 07:24 PM
Interesting question. I guess we'll see.

I wouldn't count Palin out at this point. I don't know the scope of her ambition. I think she'd probably get whupped soundly by Obama in the general election. But who knows? It would depend on both how she portrays herself, and what happens to Obama in the next few months.

I don't think she's a ditz, as she's often portrayed. Maybe not the brightest bulb; I don't know because I've never met her.

As I've said a couple of times before, if the Republicans don't have a serious look at Christie Whitman they aren't paying attention. Maybe she doesn't want the job, and I wouldn't blame her, but an impressive person who I could vote for.

Waddie
03-08-2011, 07:32 PM
The problem for any candidate, Republican or Democrat, is that to win in the current primary system they have to play to the radical base of their respective party. It's difficult for a moderate republican to win the nomination. After winning, the nominee must win the vast independent (moderate) vote to be elected. This has proven a difficult trick to pull off. The candidate must also be personable, make few gaffs and being photogenic is a big plus. Voters also just want a fresh face, so Newt, Romney, Huck and Palin may have had too much media exposure already. Christie is the fresh face the Republicans need if they are going to have a shot at winning.

Obama's problem is that he failed to keep his most fervent supporters in the game. Their energy level and interest has waned, as the President never called on them to raise a ruckus in support of his agenda. I don't know if he can re-energize them. He let a very traditional Democratic Congress take the lead in developing policy and passing bills, instead of taking charge himself and leading on many issues. His willingness to compromise (however admirable and necessary) has discouraged his base. They see it as "business as usual" while candidate Obama promised transparency, repeal of things like the Patriot Act, real change in domestic policy; and they see his foreign policy (Iraq/Afganistan/Gitmo) as a continuation of Bush policy. Maybe he can pull out a win-but it will be close. It's not inconceivable that another Dem will challenge!! :)

regards,
Waddie

Cuyahoga Chuck
03-08-2011, 07:44 PM
Interesting question. I guess we'll see.
I wouldn't count Palin out at this point. I don't know the scope of her ambition. I think she'd probably get whupped soundly by Obama in the general election. But who knows? It would depend on both how she portrays herself, and what happens to Obama in the next few months.

Why not? Everything is free here. Take a guess.



I don't think she's a ditz, as she's often portrayed. Maybe not the brightest bulb; I don't know because I've never met her..

Lust does alter our judgements, doesn't it?
By the way, how many presidential candidates have you met? If your vote depends on personal contact you must have spent a lot of time twiddling your thumbs on election days.


As I've said a couple of times before, if the Republicans don't have a serious look at Christie Whitman they aren't paying attention. Maybe she doesn't want the job, and I wouldn't blame her, but an impressive person who I could vote for.

You are going to have to come up with some analysis to show she is RED enought for your confreres in the Bible States. Remember,"as goes Maine so goes nobody else any more".

Keith Wilson
03-08-2011, 08:57 PM
There's a Tea Party of the left, too.There always is. I remember a heated conversation in the summer of 2000 with an intelligent, sincere, and sadly mistaken fellow who was going to vote for Nader because he thought both major parties were exactly alike. But it's much, much smaller and less likely to cause trouble than the Republican right wing. Almost all of 'em will grit their teeth and vote for Obama.

The largest problem for the Republicans is the same reason the Democrats held on to the Senate seats in Nevada and Delaware, and why Tim Pawlenty (who I've decided has no real convictions at all, other than, "I want to be President") is doing his best to feign insanity. The slightest sign of moderation will be punished by the extremists in the primaries. I've said it before; I think we're witnessing the death throes of the modern conservative movement. It's flaming out in craziness, just as the new left did around 1975. The US electorate rarely rewards extremism.

It will probably be Romney, although he's looking more like Bob Dole by the minute. Pawlenty's attempt at impersonating a tea partier isn't convincing enough to satisfy the far right, but it's good enough to scare the more reasonable. There are few actual moderates left in the Republican party, at least among those who vote in the primaries. OTOH, it's early yet; lots can happen in a year

SMARTINSEN
03-08-2011, 09:08 PM
Christie is the fresh face the Republicans need if they are going to have a shot at winning.

Doug Christie has said that he would not run for President in 2012, so has Jeb, as well as John Thune. If you can take any politician at their word........

Sarah is a buffoon. I think it was Lou Barrett that said the Republican party is making no effort to reign her in or in any way groom her for the job. Letting her roll around like a loose cannon is a pretty good indicator that the Republican power elite have no faith in her. She will not--cannot--run.


No mention yet of Jon Huntsman or Mitch Daniels. You could never have two Mormons on the ticket, so Romney/Huntsman is out. My guess is Mittens/Daniels.

Paul Girouard
03-08-2011, 09:36 PM
Ya think that Obama kid will run??

Keith Wilson
03-08-2011, 09:43 PM
Ya think that Obama kid will run??Yeah, probably, unless he gets a better offer.

C. Ross
03-08-2011, 09:53 PM
...but nowhere near as big or influential. Barely a pimple on the ass of politics.

As the leading signature on the letter is Michael Moore, I am happy to say we completely agree.

President Obama should be lucky as to have a rally against him led by Mr. Moore. His approval rating would improve significantly.

Paul Girouard
03-08-2011, 10:06 PM
Yeah, probably, unless he gets a better offer.


What would it take? Supreme Leader of the New World Order? SLNWO for short.

David G
03-08-2011, 10:20 PM
Paul,

I imagine there are days in any President's life when being the mayor of Hoquium, or Bingen, or LaConnor would look good.

And think how enticing it'd be if someone offered him the title of UberBilgeRat!!!

Nicholas Scheuer
03-09-2011, 05:50 AM
I HOPE it's Romney.

Hey! Maybe he'll realize that he's neither sexy nor exciting enough, and select Palin as his running mate!

Moby Nick

LeeG
03-09-2011, 05:59 AM
Ya think that Obama kid will run??

I don't think his daughter is old enough to vote

John Smith
03-09-2011, 07:54 AM
in 2016 we may see Hickenlooper run for the dems, and that would please me greatly.

Newt may get a VP slot for the red team 2012. No idea who thinks they even have a chance on the red team side for president. Having said that, I was confident that we would send one our blue team players back to congress this last go around with no problem. There was a problem, she never connected with the rural part of her constituency, even though she was going to be a better representative for them also. I agree that Mitt will probably get the party nomination, doubt that he will will.

Newt has way too much baggage.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#41898222

I also believe many who would be running are looking at the changing dynamics from Wisconsin to the Republican House and it's legislative agenda. We may still have a shut down of the government.

Kind of hard for a republican presidential candidate, at this point in time, to argue about jobs, when that argument gets NO support from the actions of the republican controlled house. Wisconsin, and the other states, are showing the republican's real agenda as something the middle class should damned well be afraid of. Check this out at the 11:00 mark

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#41979418