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peterAustralia
10-08-2010, 11:10 PM
This week, the aussie dollar reached a post float high of 99.2 US cents for one US dollar. Based on the trend, it seems probable that in the near future, the Aussie dollar will be worth more than the US dollar.

Now I think to a large degree this is a bubble, and that the true value is closer to US 80c, but the markets do what the markets do.

Some things seem quite apparent to me... this is my opinion
The US economy is in relative decline
US influence in world matters is slowly declining
US partisan politics is self destructive
Australia is very lucky, having lots of minerals and a large rural sector relative to its population

15 years ago, our economy was in dire straights, we did the hard yards, we got our budget into surplus, we cut subsidies to almost everyone, we have been steadily lowering tarrifs and internationalizing our economy over the last 25 years or so

It should be noted that in Australia, out unemployment rate is about 5 percent, and in the US it is closer to 10 percent. The minimum wage here in Oz is about $14 an hour, and higher for casual employers. The fellow that cuts our grass ears $50 for what I think is 40 minutes work, but that is the way it is.

I have an OK job and earn about $24 an hour (full time contractor)
a casual cleaner working at a sports stadium would earn $20 an hour easy.

We do not subsidise our rural sector with a farm bill (we cannot afford to). Heaps of farmers have been forced off the land, leaving only those that are lucky, smart, or have good low debt. We as a rule do not subsidize our manufacturing industry, our tarrifs are now down to 5% on imports on most things. Idea is get efficient or get out.


I think the US is going down and down,
So much government debt,
A huge prison population that costs a fortune to run (you jail people just for using Coke) (i have not tried it)
so much money spent on wars it did not need to fight (my opinion)
so much money wasted on an unaffordable military (my opinion), I refer to eleven aircraft carrier battle groups, we have zero, no other country has more than one.
You have three heavy bombers, B52s, B1Bs, and B2, who else has heavy bombers? The russians have a few... but I cant see them invading western europe any time soon

I predict that US deficits will continue and you will end up like Japan, with massive debt and no easy way out.

Last monday, we had a fellow from US around for a work dinner. His solution to US fiscal crisis,,, tax cuts! Well heaven help us, but with daft thinking like that going around,,, your economy is really stuffed..

I am not sure where you went wrong
15 years ago we all admired the US, now we just shake our heads in dismay

gibetheridge
10-09-2010, 12:12 AM
Quote..."Now I think to a large degree this is a bubble, and that the true value is closer to US 80c, but the markets do what the markets do".

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AUDUSD=X+Interactive#chart10:symbol=audu sd=x;range=19990101,20101007;indicator=rsi;chartty pe=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

Sorry I couldn't copy and paste this without going through the whole screen capture process, but here it is.

You'll notice that whenever the RSI (14) gets high the price comes down, at least some. It's quite high right now. Not only that, both the RSI and the price have reached the previous high, and support and resistance tend to repeat themselves. It's easier to see in the longer time frames. Select 1YR, 2YR and 5YR. Also, high volume often precedes a change in trend, and the volume is right up there.

Normally this would be a good time to short (sell) AUD and go long (buy) USD, but things are far from normal. (That's my disclaimer).

Anyway, everything you say makes good sense to me.

PeterSibley
10-09-2010, 12:30 AM
Not much to add to the above .

shamus
10-09-2010, 04:27 AM
The combination of a real interest rate and a firm commodity market make the Au$ somewhat attractive just now.
I would not write America off just yet.

purri
10-09-2010, 05:08 AM
US: dead cat bounce for the next 10 years, then a slow decline dependent upon the internal politics and the rate of Chinese democratisation plus a must do revaluation and overhaul of the renmimbi. If the US Repubs and teabageers determine matters then it's all over red rover for them by 2030. In international terms the USD has become a currency of convenience rather than one of necessity. (Bretton-Woods agreement)

OZ has no need to tie the currency to the $US but rather to international terms of trade and here LJH dicked us over big time with the NAFTA equivalent! Oz offers a minimum of 4.5% p.a. on govt bonds that is certainly very attractive to external bodies.

FWIW if I get a gig I charge $120 p/h in 6 minute increments, if I don't I live off my defined and twice annually adjusted for inflation pension that is certainly sufficient for basic needs and then some.

shamus
10-09-2010, 05:27 AM
Sounds a bit like my doctor, but he charges a bit more. I don't employ him very often.

purri
10-09-2010, 05:32 AM
^ thus more boating time!

bobbys
10-09-2010, 09:55 AM
This week, the aussie dollar reached a post float high of 99.2 US cents for one US dollar. Based on the trend, it seems probable that in the near future, the Aussie dollar will be worth more than the US dollar.

Now I think to a large degree this is a bubble, and that the true value is closer to US 80c, but the markets do what the markets do.

Some things seem quite apparent to me... this is my opinion
The US economy is in relative decline
US influence in world matters is slowly declining
US partisan politics is self destructive
Australia is very lucky, having lots of minerals and a large rural sector relative to its population

15 years ago, our economy was in dire straights, we did the hard yards, we got our budget into surplus, we cut subsidies to almost everyone, we have been steadily lowering tarrifs and internationalizing our economy over the last 25 years or so

It should be noted that in Australia, out unemployment rate is about 5 percent, and in the US it is closer to 10 percent. The minimum wage here in Oz is about $14 an hour, and higher for casual employers. The fellow that cuts our grass ears $50 for what I think is 40 minutes work, but that is the way it is.

I have an OK job and earn about $24 an hour (full time contractor)
a casual cleaner working at a sports stadium would earn $20 an hour easy.

We do not subsidise our rural sector with a farm bill (we cannot afford to). Heaps of farmers have been forced off the land, leaving only those that are lucky, smart, or have good low debt. We as a rule do not subsidize our manufacturing industry, our tarrifs are now down to 5% on imports on most things. Idea is get efficient or get out.


I think the US is going down and down,
So much government debt,
A huge prison population that costs a fortune to run (you jail people just for using Coke) (i have not tried it)
so much money spent on wars it did not need to fight (my opinion)
so much money wasted on an unaffordable military (my opinion), I refer to eleven aircraft carrier battle groups, we have zero, no other country has more than one.
You have three heavy bombers, B52s, B1Bs, and B2, who else has heavy bombers? The russians have a few... but I cant see them invading western europe any time soon

I predict that US deficits will continue and you will end up like Japan, with massive debt and no easy way out.

Last monday, we had a fellow from US around for a work dinner. His solution to US fiscal crisis,,, tax cuts! Well heaven help us, but with daft thinking like that going around,,, your economy is really stuffed..

I am not sure where you went wrong
15 years ago we all admired the US, now we just shake our heads in dismay.

This is like reading a letter from a friend who tells you how Hot his goilfriend is while yours is a dawg and has been sleeping around town with everybody..

I still love her though cause she buys me pizza and beer!LOL

BrianW
10-09-2010, 10:08 AM
Hmm... might have to reconsider a visit till the dollar gets better.

BrianW
10-09-2010, 10:32 AM
Try telling that to our conservative brothers here, who think that world opinion doesn't matter.

Generalization.

Nanoose
10-09-2010, 11:59 AM
The Canadian dollar has also been rising...currently at .9888 and predicted to be above par with the USD shortly.

Gerarddm
10-09-2010, 12:09 PM
There is much to be said about the opening analysis. Howsomever, F. Scott Fitzgerald was wrong, there are always second acts in American lives. I would draw your attention to the 1930s as an example of just how far the hole can go down. Yet we came back from it. Only this time without a world war, thanks.

Countries can have lives, like humans. In one sense the U.S. has already done its job- its cultural paradigm has eclipsed everyone else's. I don't think even the Chinese Communist Party will be able to hold out indefinitely... the Russians only managed for 70 years.

I do believe one thing- if the Tea Baggers and their ilk gain some kind of massive political influence, then our slide will accelerate.

bobbys
10-09-2010, 12:43 PM
There is much to be said about the opening analysis. Howsomever, F. Scott Fitzgerald was wrong, there are always second acts in American lives. I would draw your attention to the 1930s as an example of just how far the hole can go down. Yet we came back from it. Only this time without a world war, thanks.

Countries can have lives, like humans. In one sense the U.S. has already done its job- its cultural paradigm has eclipsed everyone else's. I don't think even the Chinese Communist Party will be able to hold out indefinitely... the Russians only managed for 70 years.

I do believe one thing- if the Tea Baggers and their ilk gain some kind of massive political influence, then our slide will accelerate..

I noticed your slanderous use of "teabagger" to define the Tea Party.

Being as it is a reference to a particular sexual act do you have any polls, evidence, Reasons why you connect a sexual act to a group of people.

What ratios are included in the Tea Party make up of Conservatives, Democrats and independents.?

Why should one put any stock in someones political commentary that that makes a devious claim in order to degenerate others based on imaginary Sexual preference?.

If you believe people commit these acts and our slide will accelerate based on that what other sexual acts will improve or destroy our nation?

shamus
10-09-2010, 03:39 PM
Norman's questions:

Fuel- unleaded petrol costs me $1.20/litre this week.
Housing- hard to be exact. A modest dwelling in a capital city $400,000 upwards. Annual municipal rates costs vary by location. Mine are $1400.

Higher education- I think my son is paying around $6000/unit/semester for his Maths/Physics education. Paying for this is deferred until he is earning above some threshold in the order of $30,000. The debt is indexed at CPI and when he is above whatever the threshold is he would pay a couple of percent extra tax which is applied to the debt.
Health- 1.5% levy above some income threshold which I forget. Private insurance maybe $3500 per annum.
Cup of coffee- $3-$4? Dunno what Starbucks charges.
1 kg rump steak $15- $25
Potatoes $4 kg
Postage stamp 60 cents.
Gallon of antifoul $130
Marina berth $2000- $6000
Worth noting that wagearners also have 9% in addition to hourly rate paid to retirement fund.

skuthorp
10-09-2010, 03:50 PM
Real estate has been trending up, arguably a bubble but there is a shortage that's growing. I can get 6.5% interest from a safe bank. Shares in Aus flatlined during the financial hiccup but the trends are still up. Skilled labour is in shortage but that is skewed by the mining boom and the wages offered. There are problems of course with our own poor but the term is subjective and they all get a sub of some sort as a pension, under employment leaves some reliant on charity for some extra as well. We should do that better.

Keith Wilson
10-09-2010, 03:59 PM
Impressive record. You must have some adults in the government. Tax revenue in Australia is 30.6% of GDP, compared to 28.3% in the US. I think you get much better value for your money.

http://www.australiandebtmeter.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Australian-debt-since-1908.JPG

I agree that US politics are pretty much insane right now; although I'm a bit more optimistic. We've managed to recover from worse, and as Churchill said, we'll do the right thing after having tried everything else.

shamus
10-09-2010, 04:10 PM
Private debt figures are not pretty though Keith- about 150% of GDP or more. Government is now back up to 15% of GDP I think.

Lew Barrett
10-09-2010, 05:13 PM
I agree in the main, but along with Gerard feel that another act is not out of the question, just as it has been for other empires that have fallen on hard times. What changes, and needs to change, is our relationship to the rest of the world in respect to what "a leadership" role may mean.

How one defines leadership is key for if by leadership it is meant that America seems unlikely to continue to be in a position to define the value of oil, go to war at her whim on slim pretexts, command all the world markets and be the active "leader" in world hegemony, then you are certainly right.


When it comes to a return to greatness, of all the difficult (and damaging) jams we have stepped into, none is worse for the prospects than our lack of polity. That, coupled with greed and fear is the prescription for downfall.

It isn't a pretty picture, but I wouldn't count us out yet. Note, I am not arguing that this is simply opportunity bundled in the cloak of disaster. But human nature suggests that without external stimulus it can't get better before it gets worse.

Perhaps we will make all the wrong choices (and at least some bad choices seem unavoidable now) and the tail slide of American influence will result in a broken nation of waiters and servants, living meagerly on the crusts the world throws us. But that seems unlikely too. A glum and unappetizing picture certainly, but we not out. And it would be best for our friends around the world not to take pleasure in this reversal, but rather to understand how a better America is better for all.

Just as I understand that a better Australia or more enlightened Canada is ultimately better for all. Not that I see most people here gloating in other than a most superficial manner. A healthy and robust America is no less vital to world peace and security than.....say......a healthy Pakistan.

PeterSibley
10-09-2010, 06:08 PM
A healthy Pakistan would be a wonderful thing .

Allison
10-09-2010, 06:44 PM
A healthy Pakistan would be a wonderful thing .

But that would require a major reduction in the role of the military in pakistan and that is not going to happen so long as they are propped up by the US and this phony "war on terror"!

PeterSibley
10-09-2010, 07:22 PM
Their problems are older and deeper than that , it really stems from the failure of Democracy to establish in post partition Pakistan and the ensuing corruption and the resulting acendancy of the military .Successive wars with India haven't helped ,the militiary has been able to draw vast resources to itself ,leaving very little for anything else .

purri
10-09-2010, 08:21 PM
Would appear that Pakistan's political landscape is one of the "big (wealthy) families" with attendant patronage vs the military. Leadership changes and the poor are just well, poor. A small middle class with little influence.

BTW much of Oz's private sector borrowing is for large mining infrastructure and as many of these are foreign owned well, you get the drift?

PeterSibley
10-09-2010, 08:29 PM
The difference is the military , our's doesn't run the place or decide on the new PM .

paladin
10-09-2010, 08:29 PM
Crap, fellers.....there's a few guys on the forum that may remember far enough back when the American dollar wasn't worth much and all foreign traders demanded to be paid in Spanish dollars or Spanish Silver, it was worth more than ours. That's where you get the 2 bits, 4 bits and 6 bits as we would cut Spanish dollars in quarters to make change. American dollars were short on silver. That was before my time....although I do have a bag of The early trade dollars around somewhere, with old Chris Columbus on them...had the same silver content as the Spanish dollar.

RonW
10-09-2010, 08:32 PM
US: dead cat bounce for the next 10 years, then a slow decline dependent upon the internal politics and the rate of Chinese democratisation

yep, the dreaded dead cat bounce.................

Lew Barrett
10-09-2010, 08:33 PM
A healthy Pakistan would be a wonderful thing .

So would a truly healthy USA, and given that as an agreed to possibility, would vastly aid in the creation of a healthy Pakistan....amongst other things. I am confident you knew I didn't mean to deflect the conversation to discussions of Pakistan per se, using it only as an example.

PeterSibley
10-09-2010, 08:44 PM
No problem Lew ,I have a lot of sympathy for Pakistan ,it seems to be being hit from every conceivable angle at the moment and things aren't looking up very fast either .The US looks rosy by comparison .

Lew Barrett
10-09-2010, 09:09 PM
Oh we do. As long as we don't dally in our mistakes, we will recover and hopefully exceed ourselves in some fashion. For my part, that fashion needn't be in economic or military power, you understand. A life of moderation for a nation with so much military might would be a welcomed respite.

peterAustralia
10-09-2010, 11:47 PM
I guess this thread has devolved into a bit of US vs Australia, and that is fine.

My job, actually pretty average, probably a bit fraction below the median salary here in OZ, either way I like it, I enjoy it, I learn things and I am slowly on the way up.

Some points
I think the minimum wage in many US states is about $7.50 per hour. Try paying that to an Australian and they would just shake their head, and go away laughing. There may be some international students who do not have the right visa to work, that may accept that money, but very, very few.

I share a house with one ohter person. One day at work pays the rent for me. The other day pays my bills, the 3 remaining days are in the bank for special occasions and paying off my credit card debts (almost there!). Even the dole (unemploymnet benefit) is roughly $250 a week, you can survive on it, but it is not much fun. The thing about hte dole, is that if you can show you are looking for work, you can on theory live on it for your entire life, there is no cut off period. Occasionally the dole people (centerlink as is their proper name) says you have to do a looking for work course, dont turn up for the course, no more dole. The worst thing about the dole is the psychological downside that goes without working

Forklift drivers at the factory where I work, earn $30 an hour as full time contractors (not bad).

Food is cheap here, carrots and pears about 80 cents a kilo if you shop around. They cost more at supermarket, but less at the market. Milk, about 1.20 a litre. Can of soup, about $1.50. If you take the effort and buy unprocessed vegetables you can eat well for little money. Most of us are lazy and buy the nicer refridgerated pasta at $4.00 each. Red meat is cheap, basically you can eat as much as you want, no problem. Excelletnt wines for around $15 a bottle. Beer, if you buy via the slab, about $1.50 a can. So the forklift driver could afford to buy 100 cans of beer, after working one day.

A big mac medium size meal, here about $7.50. Dowside is that mcdonalds is pretty ordinary. My salad sandwich and flat white coffee costs me about $7.80

A second hand 4 cylinder car, maybe 6,000 or $7,000 dollars.

Financially we are doing OK. The main trouble is that we are getting so rich, that house prices just keep rising and rising and rising. Is hard to afford a nice $500,000 house on a single income. If you bought your house 20 years ago, your laughing.

I was reading that in the interwar years 1919 - 1939 the UK was spending 44 percent of its income on repaying interest on debt from WW1.

Australian politics is such, that both major parties are trying to express their desire to be fiscally responsible. One party says that we will repay the debt faster than you, and then the other party says, we will do this and this to repay it very fast. I think we are going to be back in surplus in 2012-2013.

I admit we have been very, very lucky with the mining boom. The drought has broken here also, that should be good for agriculture. With an extra 3 billion people to feed in 50 years, there is going to be big demand for australian excess food. All those people in China and India that are now industrialising need steel for their houses, and electricity for their appliances. We have massive amounts of coal and iron ore that we are digging out of the ground as fast as we can. The mining companies pay lots of tax, and the plan is to tax them even more (a super profits tax)

On the downside, we have been underinvesting in infrastructure for the last 20 years, that is now slowly starting to turn around, but it is expensive.

In my state, Victoria, the prison rate is half that of the state of NSW, crime rates are similar, why the difference I do not know. In the US my understanding is that if you get caught using crack cocaine you are likely to go to jail. Here you will get a caution, and referred to drug rehabilitaion.

I am not optimistic that the partisan politics in the US will see a strong desire to get into surplus. My opinion is that living within your means would be a very good thing

One advantage the US has, is that it's debt is in US dollars, worse comes to worse it can print money. When Argentina tried that their currency fell, and they end up needing to pay back ever more Peso's because the debt was in a strong currency.

skuthorp
10-10-2010, 03:26 AM
Crap, fellers.....there's a few guys on the forum that may remember far enough back when the American dollar wasn't worth much and all foreign traders demanded to be paid in Spanish dollars or Spanish Silver, it was worth more than ours. That's where you get the 2 bits, 4 bits and 6 bits as we would cut Spanish dollars in quarters to make change. American dollars were short on silver. That was before my time....although I do have a bag of The early trade dollars around somewhere, with old Chris Columbus on them...had the same silver content as the Spanish dollar.
Same here Palladin, we had Spanish silver dollars with the centre punched out and used too. Holey dollar and Dump.
http://www.macquarie.com.au/int/images/holey_dollar.jpg
It would be dissapointing if this did develop into an Aus vs US affair. The world needs the US in a healthy economic state with the freedom and capacity to keep it's influence. None more than Aus. though a tad more critical attitude from our psychophantic pollies would be good.

The Bigfella
10-10-2010, 03:31 AM
A healthy Pakistan would be a wonderful thing .

But that would require a major reduction in the role of the military in pakistan and that is not going to happen so long as they are propped up by the US and this phony "war on terror"!

I wonder what's so "phony" about it?

I went out to dinner last night with a mate who is an officer in our special forces. Maybe I should have told him that it was a "phony" war on terror that killed his Duntroon classmate recently? I'm sure he'd have been relieved to hear it.

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 03:37 AM
The Taliban is not a terrorist organisation ,AQ is long gone .What is the war for ? It's not a war on terror in Afghanistan ...it's for some reason but it's not about AQ.

If it's to defeat the Taliban ...why ?

skuthorp
10-10-2010, 03:38 AM
I think I know what Allison is getting at but I won't hijack the thread over past US politics. For those in the firing line it certainly isn't phony. I'm keeping an eye an an ex Vietnam SAS man who finds the news disturbs him even now. Baldly we got in because Howard got above himself. We are still in because of the US alliance and will get out when they do.

The Bigfella
10-10-2010, 03:42 AM
I guess its so we can go sit on a nudist beach for the day. Not sure how many nudist beaches there are along the rivers in Afghanistan?

skuthorp
10-10-2010, 03:49 AM
:d:cool:

I guess its so we can go sit on a nudist beach for the day. Not sure how many nudist beaches there are along the rivers in Afghanistan?

Allison
10-10-2010, 04:09 AM
Wow, you guys must really be stuck for answers. At least you managed to figure out a way to entertain yourself!

purri
10-10-2010, 04:16 AM
Anyone read or hear Dave Kilcullen, the voice of reaon in a sycophantic wilderness?

And BF as usual sets up the disjunctive syllogism/ straw man hypothesis. (gettin' a bit long in the tooth eh; how abt a new script writer?)

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 04:16 AM
I guess its so we can go sit on a nudist beach for the day. Not sure how many nudist beaches there are along the rivers in Afghanistan?

Ahh ,an answer .The war is culture war ? We don't like the way Afhgans be Afghans ?

Allison
10-10-2010, 04:30 AM
Before 9/11 the US oil companies, Unocal in particular were busy courting the Taliban because they wanted them to agree to building the pipelines that the US want to bring gas and oil from Kazakstan and Tajikastan, the US was paying them a subsidy to help run their govt. , they had no trouble at all with their policies then. When the Taliban got upset about the terms of the deal and broke it off the US was blocked.
In the lead up to the Afghan war the Yanks insisted that OBL was handed over, the Taliban offered to send him to any Arab country that the US named, they refused and insisted he be handed over. An offer was made to hand him over if the US would send the head of Union Carbide (responsible for Bhopal) back to India, he'd been tried and jumped bail, skipping the country with US consular aid. Of course they refused. He'd been found guilty in court over 16,000 deaths. OBL had not been tried at that stage, no courts involved.
The US had no intention of not invading Afghanistan, they needed to replace the govt. to get their deals done. Hamid Karzai used to work for Unocal.
Suddenly the Taliban went from allies against the Russians, to partners in pipeline deals to inhuman maniacs who had to be stopped.
Result. one drawn out war and a lot of dead people. Sure the Taliban are evil bastards but that's not why the war started and now they are all busy talking about doing a deal and powersharing with the Taliban.
Back later, i've got to go to the gym, the price you pay for sitting on the beach all day.!!

skuthorp
10-10-2010, 05:12 AM
The US has a history of this sort of behavior, short term advantage, no strategic planning, especially in countries they consider shall we say, backward. They've gotten used to riding rough shod over "friend and foe", quoted because sometimes the distinctions are very muddy. Self interest rules in spades, but as often as not it comes back to bite them on the a**.

LeeG
10-10-2010, 07:19 AM
I wonder what's so "phony" about it?

.

The assumptions behind it lead to never ending conflict where enemies are created as they are sought out. The expense, risk and death aren't phoney. Bush/Wolfowitz Doctrine opened up the definition of an enemy to those associated with enemies which does two things. It artificially inflates the size of the enemy and justifies the use of massed military, the whole enchilada of US forces. Getting a thousand Al Qaeda with special forces is one thing, getting 45,000 Taliban, 26million Iraqis, and another 100million or so Iranians, Syrians and whoever else can be thrown into the mix is an entirely different task. That insanity was all going to be paid off the budget with 1% of the US population involved in the fight. Tell me how one "wins" a war that begins that way.


http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2010/10/as-i-said.html

JimD
10-10-2010, 07:51 AM
The Canadian dollar has also been rising...currently at .9888 and predicted to be above par with the USD shortly.

Sure, we have a semblance of economic independence from the USA but generally speaking the Canadian economy is chained to the American economy. When Uncle Sam hurts we're usually not far behind.

Lew Barrett
10-10-2010, 10:40 AM
Sure, we have a semblance of economic independence from the USA but generally speaking the Canadian economy is chained to the American economy. When Uncle Sam hurts we're usually not far behind.

That's my point about why the "world" (you guys) need a healthy USA. Gloating over the demise of power here is self defeating in the sense that for better or worse you are chained to us. Chained to a corpse? You better hope not. Clearly it's why so many are so angry.

We have been so very naughty for so very long, but it is nothing new in the history of nations. There is a big price to pay but it isn't really much different except perhaps in degrees (and I'm not sure about that) than what empires before us have gone through. So much of this business owes homage to the breakup of the British Empire , which is related to the changes in the Ottoman Empire and the ground swells of change coming from WWI and so on and so forth. Meanwhile, small as your contributions to our brilliance may be, you can see how hard it is for our allies to divorce themselves from our adventuring nature.


Me? I don't want to live on this planet anymore unless I can be assured of a new motorbike every three years.

paladin
10-10-2010, 10:56 AM
I wuzzzint gonna bring this up, but I strongly suspect that Allison knows from what he speaks. From having been there and had interfaced with a few folks I'd say he has come damn close to the mark. I wuz wunna the guys doing a survey for the pipeline.

bobbys
10-10-2010, 03:24 PM
US: dead cat bounce for the next 10 years, then a slow decline dependent upon the internal politics and the rate of Chinese democratisation plus a must do revaluation and overhaul of the renmimbi. If the US Repubs and teabageers determine matters then it's all over red rover for them by 2030. In international terms the USD has become a currency of convenience rather than one of necessity. (Bretton-Woods agreement)

OZ has no need to tie the currency to the $US but rather to international terms of trade and here LJH dicked us over big time with the NAFTA equivalent! Oz offers a minimum of 4.5% p.a. on govt bonds that is certainly very attractive to external bodies.

FWIW if I get a gig I charge $120 p/h in 6 minute increments, if I don't I live off my defined and twice annually adjusted for inflation pension that is certainly sufficient for basic needs and then some..

I dont remember referring to any Australians with slanderous names regarding sexual acts.

It would be most appreciated if you refrained from linking me and my family and friends with a sexual act .

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 03:51 PM
What sexual act ?...there isn't one mentioned in Purri's post that I recognise .Perhaps you're more adventurous ? Please explain .

bobbys
10-10-2010, 03:58 PM
What sexual act ?...there isn't one mentioned in Purri's post that I recognise .Perhaps you're more adventurous ? Please explain ..

He used "Teabaggers" although he spilled it different.

This is a slanderous term used by the left to connect tea party people with a sexual act which you will have to look up to find the exact meaning of

skuthorp
10-10-2010, 04:03 PM
A bit of cultural exclusivity there bobbys, I don't think any Aussies, apart from ones you have informed here, would know what you are talking about.

bobbys
10-10-2010, 04:10 PM
A bit of cultural exclusivity there bobbys, I don't think any Aussies, apart from ones you have informed here, would know what you are talking about..

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=teabagging

Allison
10-10-2010, 04:21 PM
I wuzzzint gonna bring this up, but I strongly suspect that Allison knows from what he speaks. From having been there and had interfaced with a few folks I'd say he has come damn close to the mark. I wuz wunna the guys doing a survey for the pipeline

Hi Chuck,
No, I just like to do my homework!
By the way, you skipped an "S", it's she|;)
I know not many of us venture down into the bilge but I ocassionally take the risk!

Allison
10-10-2010, 04:25 PM
Bobby, we hear little about your Oh so special teabaggers and what we do is more cause for laughter than to be used as an insult. Our politics is a bit more "robust" in it's language, especially the politicians in Parliament!

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 04:36 PM
Bobby , the things you learn .:d:d

I'm pretty sure Purri is innocent of this crime ! if not others .:rolleyes:

You're going to have to learn the other cultures don't necessarily use the same urban slang as you .

The Bigfella
10-10-2010, 04:46 PM
as to Allison's view on the "phony war on terror"....... I prefer the Oxford Research Group's view on history:

Origins

Given that the United States and the UK are already heading towards the ninth year of a potentially multi-decade conflict, it is appropriate to reflect on the origins of the war in the autumn of 2001. In the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 atrocities there were two broad options by way of a US response. One was to react to the attacks by treating them as appalling acts of mass trans-national criminality. If so, then the perpetrators and those al-Qaida elements behind them would be seen as criminal elements, albeit motivated by a warped and brutal version of one of the most important of the world’s monotheistic belief systems. Such an approach would have involved a long, persistent and wide-ranging operation to bring all those involved to justice. It would have had very widespread support given the international sympathy for the United States, but could have taken years to complete.

The alternative was to see 9/11 as the start of a world-wide war against an organised enemy that was supported by rogue states and required a massive military operation directed at regime termination, initially in Afghanistan but also in Iraq. The first of these approaches, the "international law" route, was advocated by a small number of analysts, including Oxford Research Group, but had little prospect of gaining support in the United States, given that the Bush administration was particularly committed to a specific international security paradigm. This was rooted in the belief that the United States had the unique opportunity, in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, to lead the world to a New American Century. A very forceful reaction to this new threat was therefore necessary. Moreover, while most of the attention over 9/11 focused on the destruction of the World Trade Center, the attack on the Pentagon by paramilitaries armed only with parcel knives had a profound effect on the US military leadership. A formidable military response was the least that was required.

The argument for the alternative "international law" response was based partly on an analysis of the al-Qaida motivation for the 9/11 attacks, with these being seen in part as a demonstration of the movement’s ability to strike at the commercial and military heart of the "far enemy" and in part as a provocation to bring the military forces of the far enemy into Afghanistan. This second element was predicated on the belief that the mujahidin in Afghanistan, in the war with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, had brought one superpower to its knees. A long-term US military occupation in the region would therefore lead, in turn, to the decline of the United States as the world’s surviving military superpower.

A detailed analysis from Oxford Research Group published soon after the 9/11 attacks put it as follows:

"Over the next months, and probably years, military action will seek to destroy the people and supporting network of those presumed responsible for the atrocities of 11 September, and will probably seek also to destroy the Taliban regime in Kabul. In the view of the more hard-line security advisers in the Bush administration, action should also be taken against Iraq and other supporters of anti-American terrorism.

"For the Bin Laden network and its associates, such a strong military counter-reaction will have been anticipated and will almost certainly be welcomed. The groups themselves will have dispersed, probably retaining a capability for further attacks on the United States or its allies. They will anticipate very forceful military action and they will expect it to lead to civilian casualties and huge movements of refugees, to instability in Pakistan, to an increasing anti-American mood in the Middle East and to more support for their own cause."

In the months that followed, US forces terminated the Taliban regime but avoided an immediate direct occupation of the country by utilising a combination of Special Forces, aerial bombardment and, above all, a re-equipping of the Northern Alliance of warlords. By early 2002, though, attention was diverted to Iraq, leading to regime termination in early 2003 and the start of a six-year war. That war has so far cost over 100,000 civilian lives, probably twice that number of serious injuries, resulted in the detention without trial of around 120,000 people, some of them for many years, and led to the displacement of some four million Iraqis.

In relation to al-Qaida, the Iraq War had three specific advantages. The first was the ability to represent the war as direct aggression by the “far enemy” against a key Arab state in the heart of the Islamic world. Furthermore, as the war evolved, the substantial Israeli involvement in the training and equipping of US forces meant that the war could be represented as a Crusader/Zionist assault on Islam. A second effect of the war was the creation of a corps of experienced paramilitaries from many countries that joined insurgents in Iraq and gained combat experience against well-trained and exceptionally well-armed US soldiers and Marines.

Finally, there was the advantage of a diversion of attention from Afghanistan, allowing a regrouping of the Taliban paramilitaries and their emergence by 2006 as a powerful force that was capable of controlling much of the country. As they developed their tactics against US, British and other forces, they were able to gain from the extensive experience of paramilitaries in Iraq, especially in relation to the development of improvised explosive devices such as roadside bombs that have presented such persistent problems for the foreign military forces in the country.

To put it bluntly, three fundamental mistakes were made in responding to the 9/11 atrocities. They may be fully understandable in the circumstances of US politics and the sheer shock of the impact of the attacks, but they were still mistakes – responding to 9/11 with a war on terror, invading Iraq and failing to recognise the resurgence of the Taliban.

Consequences

Given that the Taliban and associated paramilitary groups have increased their influence in Afghanistan in recent years, there appears to be a connection between the increased numbers of foreign troops and the incidence of violence. This could be readily explained by those foreign forces “taking the war to the enemy” with this inevitably involving more combat, rather than any increase in strength by the insurgents. The problem with this conclusion is that it does not take into account the increasing influence of the insurgents across the country. If the reinforced foreign troops were diminishing that degree of influence through greater military activity then the argument could be made that more use of force will enhance prospects for a negotiated settlement.

Instead, it seems likely that for significant parts of the Afghan population, especially in the south and south east of the country, the foreign forces are seen as occupiers to be resisted, not liberators to be supported. If this is the case, then the more the foreign troops increase in number, the more the resistance will increase.

This is the core dilemma for the Obama administration and for the Brown government. For the present, the policy is to increase the use of force in the expectation that this will enhance a political settlement. Given the intimate connection between the 9/11 atrocities and the Afghanistan of 2001, that is an argument that it is possible for the Obama administration to make to its domestic constituency. In the United States, by and large, the war in Afghanistan is not yet unpopular, at least not at the level of the Iraq War.

For Britain it is different, and this is the significance of the impact of the casualties on UK public opinion. As these mount, it is distinctly likely that the war will become markedly unpopular in the UK. In the run-up to the 2010 general election this could have a marked political impact. Bearing this in mind, it may well be that the Obama administration will come under private pressure from the UK government that a condition of continued British involvement in the war must be a fundamental rethinking of policies, even envisaging the possibility of a ceasefire and a timetable for withdrawal.

http://oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/monthly_briefings/afghanistan_war_origins_and_consequences_0

Maybe Allison sits in the T'urden camp on this one? The 9/11 attacks being black flag ops and all....

Allison
10-10-2010, 04:58 PM
Ian, how does that negate anything I said, all it does is give a broader perspective, it doesn't even mention the things I discussed and if you look at Chuck's comments, he actually was part of the pipeline survey. There's all sorts of views put out by think tanks, some of it very accurate but that doesn't mean that it includes all the facts!

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 05:01 PM
What a load of twaddle !

LeeG
10-10-2010, 05:02 PM
.

I dont remember referring to any Australians with slanderous names regarding sexual acts.

It would be most appreciated if you refrained from linking me and my family and friends with a sexual act .

Oh Jeezus the term was one used by the Tea Partayers themselves. I had no awareness of the sexual nature of the term until someone mentioned it. If you insist on creating a term that had a pre-existing meaning you can't blame others for playing with that dual meaning. The idea that you can replace the meaning for a term because you were ignorant of it's meaning is silly. Language doesn't work that way. Besides the whole association of the Boston Tea Party with a populist movement doesn't work. Seriously, the attempt to link a populist movement that's primarily grumpy Republicans mixed in with millionaire and billionaire
backing is dumb. Why not just call yourselves the Libertarian Party Working for the Very Rich.

Allison
10-10-2010, 05:06 PM
Have fun guys, I'll leave you to it I have to go to work.

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 05:07 PM
The extension of the GWOT to Iraq ,where there was no AQ until the Yanks arrived .The extension of the GWOT to include the Taliban after AQ had been destroyed .The interesting case ofthe disappearing WMD is strangely forgotten .

A strange little analysis ,notable for what it ignores .

LeeG
10-10-2010, 05:17 PM
A strange little analysis ,notable for what it ignores .

I'm sure there's more to that study. This sentence is true but it ignores the willful violation of lessons learned since WWII to justify a hegemonic world view. Wolfowitz and Cheneys neocon minions should be revisited regularly for their overt and self-induced deceptions.


"the Bush administration was particularly committed to a specific international security paradigm. This was rooted in the belief that the United States had the unique opportunity, in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, to lead the world to a New American Century."

The Bigfella
10-10-2010, 05:25 PM
Ian, how does that negate anything I said, all it does is give a broader perspective, it doesn't even mention the things I discussed and if you look at Chuck's comments, he actually was part of the pipeline survey. There's all sorts of views put out by think tanks, some of it very accurate but that doesn't mean that it includes all the facts!

Yes, it does give a broader perspective. In fact, it actually gives a perspective..... something slights like "the phoney war on terror" doesn't do.

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 05:41 PM
It isn't a war on terror ....it's that simple .It's an attempt to extend US power deep into the ME under the cover of a criminal act by a small group of terrorists .

The whole GWOT thing is a gross bit of propaganda designed for the internal US market and the occassional like minded ''man of steel''.It is a war , like all wars, to gain resources and (temporary )territory .

LeeG
10-10-2010, 05:53 PM
Peter, my $.02 is that the GWOT was the cover to extend US power into the future. Project for a New American Century is named that way quite honestly.

We were already in the middle east but the vision of the neocons traded on American traits of exceptionalism and romanticization of the military to leap frog the US ahead of ANY possible competitor, economic or military.

We were building pyramids for the afterlife.

PeterSibley
10-10-2010, 06:03 PM
''It isn't a war on terror ....it's that simple .It's an attempt to extend US power deep into the ME under the cover of a criminal act by a small group of terrorists .''

My emphasis is on deep Lee ,the US has has lots of influence and troops in the ME ,which of course was AQ's peeve, but the Iraq and Afghanistan ventures have seen a massive increase .

purri
10-10-2010, 08:03 PM
.

He used "Teabaggers" although he spilled it different.

This is a slanderous term used by the left to connect tea party people with a sexual act which you will have to look up to find the exact meaning of

The pastime of teabagging here refers to beachgoers who just bob up and down in the water, that is ineffectual activity.
My local beach (Coogee) having little surf is noted for it especially as we have many English tourists.

Allison
10-11-2010, 01:45 AM
Ian it is naive in the extreme to think that the US has spent billions of dollars and killed so many thousands of people solely in an attempt to capture OSB and break Al Quaieda. There has to be an economic basis for them going to war other than the billions that they have been able to funnel into the pockets of the Military-Industrial complex for which Bush etal were flunkies for.
To claim that they went into iraq to remove a tyrant who had created a failed rogue state is just as big a joke. They went into Iraq for the OIL, every body knows that and even Bush has admitted that! There pack of lies were to justify military intervention for economic benefit.
There was no way that they went to Afghanistan just to capture Osama B, just as they didn't go to Iraq to get Saddam. They trumpet that excuse, acting on "principle" to cover their real motive.
They invaded Panama, killed over 3,000 people to capture the "evil" drug trafficker Noriega when his govt. wouldn't hand him over. Funny that one of the first things that the interim govt. they installed straight after the fighting stopped, cancelled the agreement that Carter had made to hand the Panama Canal back to Panama when the lease ran out. Noriega refused to cancel it so he had to go so that the US could keep control of the canal. Pity all those people had to die so that the US could stick to it's principles and be the good guys capturing one drug dealer!!!
If you believe that the US went into any of these conflicts or all the other ones that they've done in the last 50 years for the principle of the thing then I've got a big iron "coathanger" to sell you! Great views of the harbour, near the Opera House!

Allison
10-11-2010, 03:43 AM
From today's "Independent"

President Hamid Karzai confirmed today that his government has been in informal talks with the Taliban on securing peace in Afghanistan "for quite some time" - the latest in a series of high-level acknowledgements of contacts with the insurgent group.

Unofficial discussions have been held with Taliban representatives over an extended period, Mr Karzai told CNN's Larry King Live in an interview to be broadcast today.

"We have been talking to the Taliban as countryman to countryman," he said. "Not as a regular official contact with the Taliban with a fixed address, but rather unofficial personal contacts have been going on for quite some time."

Afghan presidential spokesman Waheed Omar has previously said that the administration was in contact "for the past couple of years" with "different levels of Afghan Taliban wanting to reconnect with the government". It was not immediately clear if the Karzai interview was the first time the president had acknowledged the talks directly.

Here you go Ian, the war on terror to be fought till those evil Taliban are gone from the country. "Oh by the way we've been talking to them for a couple of years and are happy to have them in our govt.!!
So much for the reason to go to war, "the white knights ridding the country of evil because they have such pure motivation!"

skuthorp
10-11-2010, 05:54 AM
Anyone could have forecast that it would come down to a political settlement, many did. All those lives have been pi**ed up against a mud brick wall by a pack of murderers masquerading as 'leaders'. The Taliban may negotiate with Karzai in the short term but he's a crook and he will be forced out or killed eventually and Afghanistan will be back to square one.

paladin
10-11-2010, 08:45 AM
Sorry, Allison, on the gender slip. I seldom seriously enter these political discussions so don't know some of the players involved. Welcome to the basement.

Allison
10-11-2010, 03:35 PM
It's fine Chuck, I don't come down here and play much either. Just to make a few fellow Aussies toe the line!

WX
10-11-2010, 06:33 PM
It's fine Chuck, I don't come down here and play much either. Just to make a few fellow Aussies toe the line!
4 Corners was good last night.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/

skuthorp
10-11-2010, 09:01 PM
Nothing we don't know or expect, but it's good to get iot out there. Problem is the sheeple that need to see it wouldn't watch the ABC anyhow.

PeterSibley
10-12-2010, 12:13 AM
You mean Abbot and Gillard ?

The Bigfella
10-12-2010, 01:46 AM
It's fine Chuck, I don't come down here and play much either. Just to make a few fellow Aussies toe the line!

With a gladbag full of anarchist's cliches. I don't think so......

PeterSibley
10-12-2010, 01:52 AM
Ian seems a bit short of answers today .

The Bigfella
10-12-2010, 02:11 AM
Ian's just had to spend a day coming up with ALL the answers....

Allison
10-12-2010, 02:22 AM
So does that mean you don't have any left?

The Bigfella
10-12-2010, 02:26 AM
Nothing like it. I just got off the phone from providing some decent answers for another pollie.

Allison
10-12-2010, 02:27 AM
You talk to parrots?

skuthorp
10-12-2010, 03:52 AM
You talk to parrots?
Well, it does describe quite a few of them very well Allison. All show, good at repetition, panic easily and rush off babbling. And if you toss a bit of seed/bait about they just cannot resist.

Allison
10-12-2010, 04:28 AM
Have you noticed that when they panic and rush off they always leave a mess behind where they have been feeding and it's us poor locals that have to clean up.
We have large flocks of corellas that fly over the town and roost in a few trees regularly. Any tree that they hangout in for too long dies. Says a lot about their habits and the need to keep chasing them off! Not that any of that could possibly apply to the wonderful politicians that we are blessed with. Australia has the highest ratio of "representation" for any western country. Seems we are such a nation of animal lovers!

PeterSibley
10-12-2010, 05:00 AM
It's the independant parrots that are the problem .

Allison
10-12-2010, 05:22 AM
Self absorbed and not working for the real benefit of the rest of the flock!

purri
10-12-2010, 06:18 AM
Quote The Goon Show: "I talk to the trees, that's why they locked me away: et al

Allison
10-12-2010, 06:26 AM
Greenies before their time!

PeterSibley
10-12-2010, 06:28 AM
Self absorbed and not working for the real benefit of the rest of the flock!

I'm quite happy with them actually .Beholden to no one but their budgies .

The Bigfella
10-12-2010, 06:29 AM
Certainly not their electors

skuthorp
10-12-2010, 06:37 AM
They may actually do better for their electors than the rest of the screetching flock. Come to think of it they don't actually screetch, just repeat the party line, parrot fashion.

Allison
10-12-2010, 06:38 AM
More Sulphur Crest than Corella!

Allison
10-12-2010, 06:39 AM
I'm quite happy with them actually .Beholden to no one but their budgies .

Well at least they stayed away from someone's budgies!

PeterSibley
10-12-2010, 07:19 AM
Certainly not their electors

Ian doesn't like them ,they backed the wrong cocky .As Jeff says , if their electorate is smart they'll put them back ...assuming we continue on the razor's edge .