oil spill question

[Hughman]

looking at this,

http://acp.repoweramerica.org/page/invite/oilspillvideo?source=sprd-taf&utm_source=spread_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=oilspillvideo20100527 (http://thinkprogress.org/2010/05/25/bp-does-not-want-you-to-see/)

I wonder if the suspension occupying ~20 feet of the ocean will collect lots more solar heat, resulting in increased hurricane activity?

[Gerarddm]

Hmmm, interesting thought. On the face of it, the ocean is pretty damn big, I dunno if even a large oil spill would introduce enough pollutants to effect surface temps...

On the other hand, I am no scientist, and if a single volcano can effect weather and sunsets for a while, it may very well be that a very large thin sheen of oil would prevent transpiration, thus incrementally warming the water?

The thing is though, that hurricanes don't originate in the Gulf. Would enough heat be trapped to accentuate a hurricane that made it's way into the Gulf? Aye, there's the rub.

[Hughman]

A surface sheen might reflect heat: but dark matter below the surface (the situation caused by dispersants) ought to collect heat.

hurricanes don't originate in the gulf, but are fed by the energy in the water they pass over.

[hansp77]

hurricanes don't originate in the gulf, but are fed by the energy in the water they pass over.

My guess would be that if you only had the plumes, then yes, it could increase the surface temperature, and increase evaporation and rising warm moist air, and thus increase hurricanes-
However, with a lot of surface oil as well, I would picture this actually decreasing evaporation on the surface and possibly decreasing the power and/or incidence of hurricanes.
A warmer ocean surface is one thing- but a warmer ocean surface with a layer of oil on top is likely quite a different beast.
It is all about the amount of rising warm moist air, that then condenses up high releasing heat/energy to the storm cell, gearing up the storm cell which sucks more and more warm moist air up, which condenses....
that is my layman's understanding of it.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I have said this before, and no doubt I will say it again, this is a pretty small oil spill and it certainly won't have an effect on local weather; there is not enough of it.

[Hughman]

I don't have a sense of oil spill events to make a comparison. As you might expect, the media is trying to earn their paychecks.

this site quotes: "sparked the greatest environmental disaster in United States history"

http://www.ifitwasmyhome.com/#loc=Seattle%2C%2BWA%2C%2BUSA&lat=47.6062095&lng=-122.3320708&x=-122.3320708&y=47.6062095&z=7

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

The "greatest environmental disaster in United States history" was undoubtedly the arrival of the palefaces, followed closely by the Winning of the West, but perhaps we'd better let that one pass.;)

Unlike, say, the extinction of the passenger pigeon, oil spills are reversible, and indeed self correcting over time. Nature is good at this stuff. This isn't even the biggest oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

People do tend to get over-excited at times like this.

[Hughman]

One might make the case that the use of antibiotics is the "greatest environmental disaster" if one considers the effects of the increase in population, the pollution of water - from excreting the excess - on organisms, and the resistant strains of pathogens.

[hansp77]

I have said this before, and no doubt I will say it again, this is a pretty small oil spill and it certainly won't have an effect on local weather; there is not enough of it.

Quite a definitive and reductionist statement there Andrew.
I would disagree and say that the spill most certainly will have an effect on local weather- quite a few effects actually. Most likely in the bigger picture, a very small if even noticable change in weather IMHO, and possibly even one where different effects might work against each other, but effect it will. Most likely we are talking about applying scale to different definitions here- local, weather, effect, etc..
I doubt this will mean much in the bigger picture of how hurricanes form or even much in the relative energy they contain if/when they hit land.
But then I am no climate expert- are you?
Hurricane season aint kicked in yet, and the oil is still spilling.
I see a few factors- the surface oil- changing the albedo of the ocean area covered and also changing/blocking the ability for this slicked surface to evaporate water- with further effects on the surface water temperature- reduced evaporation/cooling, and reduced water vapour rising to form clouds and reduced transferal of latent energy from water surfaces to the atmostphere and storm cells and other weather patterns.
Then there is the dispersed plumes. Without a slick on top, this could just change the albedo of the top layer of water- heat it more, and increase evaporation, etc..

Someone with the skills or inclination could no doubt do some basic modeling regarding the area of the slick, the areas of plumes, and calculate the amount of energy and volumes of water vapour present. These would all be effects. On local weather.
It is just my wild guestimate but I wouldn't be surprised if these amounts and volumes are actually quite large. Large to what? Large compared to no effect.


But then this all has little to do with your whole schtick of late.

It may be a small oil spill, by your professional definition, but just because there have been worse spills before does not mean there will be no effects on local weather in this situation.

[bamamick]

Gets talked about all the time down here. Our fear is that we will have another major hurricane and disperse the stuff in places that we will have been able to protect up until then. I know this is going to sound horrid (believe, I know), but imagine thousands of homes and businesses coated with crude oil? If things weren't bad enough, what would the multiplier on the cleanup be once that happened?

I am suffering from stress because of this. I have a permanant knot in my stomach and I am having trouble sleeping. As if things aren't difficult enough.

Mickey Lake

[Don Z.]

I'm no climate scientist, but I'm willing to bet an Icelandic volcano has more effect on weather than an oil spill...

[Hughman]

I'm no climate scientist, but I'm willing to bet an Icelandic volcano has more effect on weather than an oil spill...

To clarify, the original post speculated on a local phenomenon, - hurricane- rather than climate.

[Clive P]

What I want to know is, if the leak cannot be stopped, how much oil will come out of this hole before it runs out of steam? (Or pressure or whatever!)
Clive

[Boatguy1972]

What I want to know is, if the leak cannot be stopped, how much oil will come out of this hole before it runs out of steam? (Or pressure or whatever!)
Clive

I would be willing to wager that it would not stop flowing in my lifetime and I'm only 38...

[bamamick]

We can smell it today for the first time. I have had a lot of people tell me that they could smell it, but today we ALL can smell it. Smells like some sort of solvent, sort of like that stuff they clean machine tools in professionally, although not quite that strong. I live about 20 miles from the Gulf and I can smell it clear as day.

It's going to be a really bad summer around here.

Mickey Lake

[LeeG]

What I want to know is, if the leak cannot be stopped, how much oil will come out of this hole before it runs out of steam? (Or pressure or whatever!)
Clive

this is something you can google up. I think if it goes until August when the relief wells stop it it will be about as big as Ixtop but there's not really a definitive number on the rate of leaking and approx. 80% of the oil isn't making it to the surface. Don't think we want it to go until it runs out of pressure.

[Don Z.]

To clarify, the original post speculated on a local phenomenon, - hurricane- rather than climate.

which is why I said "more effect on weather than..."

[paladin]

The "greatest environmental disaster in United States history" was undoubtedly the arrival of the palefaces, followed closely by the Winning of the West, but perhaps we'd better let that one pass.

White man strikes again!