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WX
12-31-2009, 06:43 PM
The head of Russia's federal space agency has said it will work to divert an asteroid which will make several passes near the Earth from 2029.
Anatoly Perminov told the Voice of Russia radio service that the agency's science council would hold a closed meeting to discuss the issue.
Any eventual plan is likely to be an international collaboration, he said.
The US space agency said in October that there is a one-in-250,000 chance of Apophis hitting Earth in 2036.



This bit is significant.

Mr Perminov, who is the chief of Roscosmos, gave little detail of any plans that the agency has, but was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying that the solution would not entail the use of nuclear weapons.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8435829.stm

McMike
12-31-2009, 06:48 PM
I think this is as big a warning as we're gonna get.

Phillip Allen
12-31-2009, 06:55 PM
oughta be worth a few billion in grant money for a lot of professers...

Tom Montgomery
12-31-2009, 07:01 PM
oughta be worth a few billion in grant money for a lot of professers...

:confused: Another throwaway line stinking of cynicism. What is your point?

WX
12-31-2009, 07:02 PM
An idea I heard once is you park a spacecraft along side it. Bodies attract each other so you use the mass of the ship to alter the course of the asteroid, as it moves towards the ship you move the ship away. If it's done far enough out it will have the required effect.
They will have to be a lot more serious about this than GW though, we only have 19 years to make it happen.

James McMullen
12-31-2009, 07:37 PM
Anyone who doesn't know that near earth asteroids are a significant threat to our civilization is sadly ignorant of both science and history. The global effects from even a small collision could wreck enough crops wordwide to kill a billion people from famine within a year, regardless of the localized damage from the impact.

We're in the fairly unique position these days of knowing just barely enough to possibly be able to divert this kind of catastrophe for the first time in history. But anti-intellectualist sneers about grant money for professors don't help much.

Yeadon
12-31-2009, 08:01 PM
The difference between a person who is conservative and a person who is progressive.


A person who is progressive is concerned about things that will effect other people.
A person who is conservative is concerned about things that effect other people, but only after it has effected them.

Therefore, unless the asteroid hits Phillip's house, he will not be concerned.

This is fun.

C. Ross
12-31-2009, 08:05 PM
"affect"

Are you saying that progressives are nosy?

Yeadon
12-31-2009, 08:07 PM
You think it is affect, versus effect? You must be a person who is progressive! You're concerned about my spelling AFFECTING other people. (Wait ... which one is it again?)

Incidentally, this is why people edit me. I'm all concept, no guns.

bobbys
12-31-2009, 08:10 PM
If you think you are going to get me to watch Armageddon again with Bruce Willis your sadly mistaken.

Yeadon
12-31-2009, 08:11 PM
No man should live long enough to have to go through that again.

seanz
12-31-2009, 08:19 PM
I'm all concept, no guns.


All chat, no prattle?

No, that ain't right.............

Yeadon
12-31-2009, 08:29 PM
All pants, no legs?

BrianW
12-31-2009, 08:38 PM
God, them sonofabitches will probably just alter it's course enough to go from near miss to direct hit.

Yeadon
12-31-2009, 08:43 PM
No possible way. The Russians know exactly what they are doing.

Incidentally, my contribution to this thread has been minimal, at best.

McMike
12-31-2009, 08:45 PM
God, them sonofabitches will probably just alter it's course enough to go from near miss to direct hit.

I betcha you wish the big GWB didn’t cut funding to NASA now big guy. It’s up to the Ruskies and that’s how the cookie crumbles:rolleyes:. Looks like we’ll be going a year or so without the sun in a 25 years:cool:. I wonder if they’ll aim it at NYC, DC, or LA? :D

seanz
12-31-2009, 10:52 PM
Yeah, shoulda voted for McCain/Palin.....we'd be able to see Russia from Mars by now.

TimH
01-01-2010, 12:15 AM
At least someone is working on it. We are too broke.

C. Ross
01-01-2010, 01:44 AM
I'm all concept, no guns.

Maybe it's just the New Years champagne talking, but this reply had me laughing loud enough to annoy even the dog.

skuthorp
01-01-2010, 01:47 AM
Boris will fix it, he's got the physique of Bruce 20 years ago. Beam him up and he can guide the bombs in ala Dr Strangelove.

Nicholas Carey
01-01-2010, 02:19 AM
An idea I heard once is you park a spacecraft along side it. Bodies attract each other so you use the mass of the ship to alter the course of the asteroid, as it moves towards the ship you move the ship away. If it's done far enough out it will have the required effect.
They will have to be a lot more serious about this than GW though, we only have 19 years to make it happen.Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_law_of_universal_gravitation) says:
Every point mass attracts every single other point mass by a force pointing along the line intersecting both points. The force is directly proportional to the product of the two masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the point masses:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/b/6/5/b65000f8f887a68545ce63eb1cada232.png

where:

F is the magnitude of the gravitational force between the two point masses (newtons),
G is the gravitational constant (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_constant),
m1 is the mass of the first point mass (ilograms),
m2 is the mass of the second point mass (kilograms)
r is the distance between the two point masses (meters).

The average density of an asteroid is something like 2500kg/m^3. An asteroid just 50m in diameter would likely mass in the vicinity of 164,000,000kg.

Jupiter affects the orbit of asteroids -- slowly.

Just how big a ship are we sending? And how do we propose to accellerate it to escape velocity? Earth's escape velocity is 11.2 km/sec (25100 mph). That gets us to some sort of solar orbit. Solar escape velocity in the vicinity of the Earth/Moon is about 42.1 km/s (94,200 mph).

I'm no physicist, astrogator or orbital mechanic, but any way you slice it, to pull something like that off, you're talking about talking mondo masses and applying a mondo delta-V to them.

The Saturn V that put Apollo 15 on the moon massed about 3.2 million kg. The 3rd (orbital) stage (low earth orbit) massed just 140,000 kg. At trans-lunar injection, once the 3rd stage was dumped, it was down to just under 50,000 kg for the command module and LEM.

That's the biggest thing anybody has managed to push out there (and we didn't push it very far).

WX
01-01-2010, 04:01 AM
I'm no physicist, astrogator or orbital mechanic, but any way you slice it, to pull something like that off, you're talking about talking mondo masses and applying a mondo delta-V to them.


it's a theory that has been put forward that's all.
It will have to be an international effort, the Russians can't do it alone.

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
01-01-2010, 04:09 AM
The head of Russia's federal space agency has said it will work to divert an asteroid which will make several passes near the Earth from 2029.

Who cares? - most of us will be dead by then anyway.

WX
01-01-2010, 04:10 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaW4Ol3_M1o&feature=fvw

skuthorp
01-01-2010, 04:45 AM
Does that mean we don't have to worry about global warming?

(Gives you thought, but I can't see humanity in general taking a blind bit of notice till say, 2028. And as for 'diverting' it, what a gamble!)

PeterSibley
01-01-2010, 06:47 AM
Who cares? - most of us will be dead by then anyway.

Speak for yourself my dear .:D

The Bigfella
01-01-2010, 07:52 AM
C'mon, we know that the Ruskies saved America's butt in WW2. They've done it once, they can do it again.

LeeG
01-01-2010, 08:18 AM
The thing I'd be concerned with is a mistake that would bring the asteroid closer than farther away. Also shouldn't this be a project with international agreement and oversite given the consequences of an error?

BrianW
01-01-2010, 09:04 AM
Also shouldn't this be a project with international agreement and oversite given the consequences of an error?

Like global warming? ;)

LeeG
01-01-2010, 09:20 AM
yeah, like global warming, but not like global warming because it's not global warming.

Phillip Allen
01-01-2010, 09:58 AM
nothing sells like fear...

The Bigfella
01-01-2010, 10:06 AM
nothing sells like fear...

the world's second oldest profession learnt that early in the piece

LeeG
01-01-2010, 10:09 AM
nothing sells like fear...

nothing beats discovery

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

99942 Apophis (pronounced /əˈpɒfɪs/, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remains that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis will pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.[5]
Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole will likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of October 7, 2009, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 250,000.[6] An additional impact date in 2037 was also identified; the impact probability for that encounter is calculated as 1 in 12.3 million.
Many scientists agree that Apophis warrants closer scrutiny. To that end, in February 2008 the Planetary Society awarded $50,000 in prize money to companies and students who submitted designs for space probes that would put a tracking device on or near the asteroid.[7] Several other groups have studied or plan to study missions to Apophis.



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/be/AsteroidImpactProb.png

Vince Brennan
01-01-2010, 10:10 AM
WGAF? We'll all be dead 'cause of the Mayans, anyway?

LeeG
01-01-2010, 10:12 AM
WGAF? We'll all be dead 'cause of the Mayans, anyway?

2036? some of us anyway

McMike
01-01-2010, 10:13 AM
An asteroid hitting the Earth is a guaranteed event, we don’t know when but it will happen to Earth, to humanity. This is not a threat or fear mongering. Use your head and read up on the "near earth object" http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ projects going on. Something could surprise us and imminently hit this planet within a year. If we’re lucky we’ll catch it with 25 years to prepare. I think Apophis is a benign wake-up call that shows us how vulnerable we are. Lifting the veil of ignorance does tend to present the reality that always existed, now if you deny the problem exists with the facts in front of you, you become part of the problem that requires solving.

Phillip Allen
01-01-2010, 10:27 AM
An asteroid hitting the Earth is a guaranteed event, we don’t know when but it will happen to Earth, to humanity. This is not a threat or fear mongering. Use your head and read up on the "near earth object" http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ projects going on. Something could surprise us and imminently hit this planet within a year. If we’re lucky we’ll catch it with 25 years to prepare. I think Apophis is a benign wake-up call that shows us how vulnerable we are. Lifting the veil of ignorance does tend to present the reality that always existed, now if you deny the problem exists with the facts in front of you, you become part of the problem that requires solving.


I agree that the strike is gonna happen eventually...maybe sooner than later but as an individual, there is nothing I can do except live my life as well as I can and fight off the thieves, con-men and politicians

Tom Montgomery
01-01-2010, 10:49 AM
I agree that the strike is gonna happen eventually...maybe sooner than later but as an individual, there is nothing I can do except live my life as well as I can and fight off the thieves, con-men and politicians

You can write to your Senators and Congressman to urge them to have the USA contribute to the international effort necessary to protect Earth from such objects.

Or you can persist in your cynical nihilism.

Phillip Allen
01-01-2010, 10:53 AM
to get a dollar into the correct kplace requires a billion into the pockets of a lot of middle men including and especially politicians...my cousin is always willing to do what HE can...which is to take money from his neighbors to help asuage his conscience

LeeG
01-01-2010, 10:54 AM
I don't think Phillip has cynical nihilism, he just misconstrues the dialog as a plea to feel a particular way.

Tom Montgomery
01-01-2010, 11:01 AM
Phillip is tiresome. It must suck to be so cynical.

Phillip Allen
01-01-2010, 11:04 AM
I bounce between gullible and cynical...how do you explain your behavior?

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 11:05 AM
Is this the replacement to global warming?

If a asteroid large enough to do "real" damage, catastrophic type damage , not a hole in a house roof, or a moon rock falling in the desert. We humans will / would be helpless to "stop" it.

Hell we can't keep explosives off commerical airliners.

THE SKY IS FALLING ,,, AGAIN! :D

What a way to start 2010, worried about space rocks , jeesh :rolleyes:

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 11:07 AM
I bounce between gullible and cynical...how do you explain your behavior?




I'd say your realistic and those that think Russia gonna "Save to world" are gullible.

Others MMV.

Phillip Allen
01-01-2010, 11:07 AM
go Paul!!

Tom Montgomery
01-01-2010, 11:12 AM
I'd say your realistic and those that think Russia gonna "Save to world" are gullible.

Others MMV.

No one thinks that Russia is going to change the world. And, no, the threat of objects with a near earth orbit is not theoretical. Nor are we helpless to do anything about it.

But we may lack the will to do anything about it

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 11:15 AM
So how old is the earth you evolutionist? Old right? has it been hit by a asteroid big enought to do huge damage yet?

You really think "man" is one powerful hombre eh!

Don't take so much credit.

Big bang theories HA! Things evolve , sure , slllloooooowwwwwwly , things devolve rapidly IF a basic plan is not in place.

Think about it will ya?

BrainW the "most" right IMO in his post about " They might hit it just enough to have it hit earth", a paraphrased quote of one of his post early in this thread.

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 11:17 AM
No one thinks that Russia is going to change the world. And, no, the threat of objects with a near earth orbit is not theoretical. Nor are we helpless to do anything about it.

But we may lack the will to do anything about it



I didn't say "change" I said "save". They may in fact change the world by what they do, save not so much.

You give humans to much credit IMO Tom.

Tom Montgomery
01-01-2010, 11:20 AM
I suppose you also thought the Apollo program would be a massive waste of billions in pursuit of an impossible acheivement.

Better to waste those billions on senseless wars and putting men on Mars. :rolleyes:

Tom Montgomery
01-01-2010, 11:25 AM
I also don't think think Russia is going to save the world.

What I think is that diverting dangerous near earth objects is an acheivable goal. I also think it needs to be an international effort. I also think it will cost a lot of money. The problem isn't a lack of resources. The problem is directing those resources in the proper directions.

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 11:33 AM
I suppose you also thought the Apollo program would be a massive waste of billions in pursuit of an impossible acheivement.



Better to waste those billions on senseless wars and putting men on Mars.

You sure like to put words down that I don't write, but whatever.



They (we) sure managed to pollute space. Lots of nifty gadgets where invented.

How about star-wars , did you support that? Just think if we HAD built that system we could be shooting "at the stars" as well.

LeeG
01-01-2010, 11:41 AM
http://z.about.com/d/taoism/1/0/0/-/-/-/yinYang.gif

Tom Montgomery
01-01-2010, 11:45 AM
Are you familiar with the Rosetta mission? (http://www.esa.int/esaMI/Rosetta/SEMYMF374OD_0.html)

The technology already exists. It is only a matter of will.

I've got it! We should declare a Global War On Dangerous Near Earth Objects!

LeeG
01-01-2010, 11:50 AM
Gwodneo?

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 11:59 AM
No, you can't use war in the title !!! It will effect how the world looks that us.:rolleyes:

How about a " Joint effort to over come the global threat of large objects formed in a galactic area (formerly known as space $hit) as it could / might / we kinda think / some day,,, sort of effect how farmer Brown plants his crops"

Phillip Allen
01-01-2010, 12:16 PM
I can see the history now...Russia nudges it just enough to hit where it'll do the least damage to RUSSIA and when the rest of the world figured it out, and before that actual strike, everyone sent nucs toward Russia in pre-emptive retaliation...

LeeG
01-01-2010, 12:20 PM
Rods from God

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/10/magazine/10section3a.t-9.html

johnw
01-01-2010, 01:52 PM
So how old is the earth you evolutionist? Old right? has it been hit by a asteroid big enought to do huge damage yet?
Well, there seems to have been one 13,000 years ago that wiped out the megafauna and the humans in North America.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070924172959.htm

And there was the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. Happily, these big asteroids don't hit very often, but if you look at your current issue of Scientific American you'll see that they hit often enough to play a major role in the formation of the continents.

I suspect at our current level of technology, we'll be able to tell if we'll be hit but not able to prevent it. Then our worry will be the mine-shaft gap...

I'd say odds are pretty good this won't happen in my lifetime. The fact that we now have the technology to worry about this does not increase the odds of it happening soon.

McMike
01-01-2010, 02:36 PM
Agreed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_object (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_object) it lists some near misses.

IMO this is one of those justifications for space exploration, I think there is a reasonable way to be on the lookout for and have at least a plan to repel a possible collision. I don’t think this is a call for hysteria but I think there is sufficient risk to warrant action to a reasonable degree.

I will say to the folks who think that ignoring the facts and probabilities on this subject is prudent, you are wrong.

john welsford
01-01-2010, 02:49 PM
It is an international effort, the European Community space agency is making a considerable contribution as is the UK, India, Australia and South Africa are involved with tracking and navigation.
Thats about 20 countries, thats an international effort.

John Welsford


I also don't think think Russia is going to save the world.

What I think is that diverting dangerous near earth objects is an acheivable goal. I also think it needs to be an international effort. I also think it will cost a lot of money. The problem isn't a lack of resources. The problem is directing those resources in the proper directions.

TimH
01-01-2010, 02:53 PM
go Paul!!

Wow! The two brighest people in the forum agree on something :D:D

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 02:58 PM
Wow! The two brighest people in the forum agree on something



You see any of those terrorist on the ferries lately Timmy? Make sure your packin next time so you can waste um!

Oh ya that little incident a few years back didn't quite work out the way you hoped did it:D

TimH
01-01-2010, 03:01 PM
Like I said :)

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 03:49 PM
Like I said :)




Ya tell us agian about thiose "Arab lookin guys" you wanted to waste just for being. That was fun.

For a U-Dub grad you got nuttin to brag on with brain power Timmy. Your bow shed blow over yet?

WX
01-01-2010, 04:23 PM
I also think it needs to be an international effort.

That is a given.
If something is going to be done it will have to start soon because it has to be done a long way from here. The further out the less you have to nudge it. One thing in our favour is we have gotten good at remote control spacecraft...except when we forget to convert from miles to kilometres, or was it the other way around.

seanz
01-01-2010, 04:28 PM
Yards and meters, I thought......they're never getting that one back. :)

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 04:45 PM
...except when we forget to convert from miles to kilometres, or was it the other way around.



And I'm sure some one just like you will be the lead person on this critical world effort.

We're doomed:D

WX
01-01-2010, 04:59 PM
No Paul, hopefully not...to both comments.

LeeG
01-01-2010, 06:46 PM
Well, there seems to have been one 13,000 years ago that wiped out the megafauna and the humans in North America.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070924172959.htm

.


or maybe not. Either way the planet does get hit

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090126173729.htm

ScienceDaily (Jan. 27, 2009) — New data disproves the recent theory that a large comet exploded over North America 12,900 years ago, causing a shock wave that travelled across North America at hundreds of kilometres per hour and triggering continent-wide wildfires.

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health/comets-didnt-wipe-out-early-americans-12900-years-ago_100264947.html

Nicholas Pinter, a geologist at Southern Illinois University, argued that black mats described as charcoal in the 2007 research weren’t actually charcoal.

Instead they were from ancient, dark soil formed in a long-ago wetland, according to Pinter.

“It’s a misunderstanding of what these layers represent,” he said. Likewise, the small amounts of carbon “are not uniquely associated with high-intensity fire,” he added.

As for the magnetic grains, they are likely from the 30,000 tons of tiny meteorites that fall to Earth each year.

Pinter found such grains in equal or greater concentrations at many other layers dating to other time periods.

johnw
01-01-2010, 07:03 PM
I try to keep up, but history keeps changing.

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 07:22 PM
I try to keep up, but history keeps changing.



Ya revisionist are always twisting historical facts. I'm surprised you'd admit to that.

I, Rowboat
01-01-2010, 07:52 PM
Perhaps we should rely of the free market to take care of it. After all, the invisible hand knows best. :confused:

Paul Girouard
01-01-2010, 08:00 PM
Perhaps we should rely of the free market to take care of it.



Perhaps we ( man) should quit mucking up things and let it be. When was that last strike , 12,000 years ago? Give me a break:rolleyes:

The Bigfella
01-01-2010, 08:13 PM
I think we should get the UN to organise our response.

They can organise a conference to work out the solution.... book a venue for 15,000 or so delegates, perhaps somewhere like Copenhagen, then accept 45,000 delegate registrations.

I'm sure they'll sort it out.

PeterSibley
01-01-2010, 08:22 PM
I think we should get the UN to organise our response.

They can organise a conference to work out the solution.... book a venue for 15,000 or so delegates, perhaps somewhere like Copenhagen, then accept 45,000 delegate registrations.

I'm sure they'll sort it out.

Nah ,put Rummy in charge .:rolleyes:

skuthorp
01-01-2010, 08:43 PM
I think we should get the UN to organise our response.

They can organise a conference to work out the solution.... book a venue for 15,000 or so delegates, perhaps somewhere like Copenhagen, then accept 45,000 delegate registrations.

I'm sure they'll sort it out.

I'm tempted Ian, I'm tempted. Make the conference venue the supposed strike site, at about the same time.
Seriously though, do you really think we could actually organise a mutually acceptable programme to attempt a solution? I know I'm a hobbldey-hoy about the human race's capacity to deal with the big stuff, but with a threat imminent can you just imagine the fundies coming out of the woodwork claiming "armageddon" (the real one) and the pollies and their 'advisors' at their usual trade?

WX
01-02-2010, 05:37 PM
This bloke sums it up quite well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaW4Ol3_M1o&feature=related

johnw
01-02-2010, 05:52 PM
Ya revisionist are always twisting historical facts. I'm surprised you'd admit to that.
Correcting an error is not twisting facts. It is the opposite.

All the areas of human knowledge make progress, history included.

WX
01-02-2010, 06:01 PM
Facts are facts, how they are interpreted emotively/subjectively in the future may change.

sdowney717
01-04-2010, 07:31 AM
seriously would government want, allow, or try to stop information disseminated that an asteroid strike would definitely hit the earth?
or would they only say 1 in 45000 chance. If you knew the world was going to be destroyed in a certain year, and nothing you could do to change it, what's the point worrying people about it.

attempts to alter trajectories of big chunks of rock ice could also make them more likely to hit the earth.

also as we move into the future, who knows what they will discover about the new trajectory of this impactor will be.

sdowney717
01-04-2010, 07:37 AM
http://www.universetoday.com/2009/11/09/surprise-unknown-asteroid-buzzed-earth/

there may be no warning, this asteroid came close with only a few hours notice. There are many of these things flying around that people have no idea even exist.

comet that hit Jupiter would have obliterated the earth had it been aimed at us.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33076278/ns/technology_and_science-space

George.
01-04-2010, 08:43 AM
I hope they try sanctions to deter the asteroid before resorting to force.

Personally, I think nuclear war is more likely than asteroid strikes over the next few decades. If I were Russia I'd focus my heroic efforts on that threat.

johnw
01-04-2010, 01:49 PM
I hope they try sanctions to deter the asteroid before resorting to force.

Personally, I think nuclear war is more likely than asteroid strikes over the next few decades. If I were Russia I'd focus my heroic efforts on that threat.
When nuclear weapons are outlawed, only asteroids will have nuclear weapons.

Popeye
01-04-2010, 01:56 PM
big asteroids can be very painful

peter radclyffe
01-04-2010, 02:02 PM
An idea I heard once is you park a spacecraft along side it. Bodies attract each other so you use the mass of the ship to alter the course of the asteroid, as it moves towards the ship you move the ship away. If it's done far enough out it will have the required effect.
They will have to be a lot more serious about this than GW though, we only have 19 years to make it happen.

monsanto & thunderbirds are go