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TimH
12-16-2009, 08:22 PM
They just said that on the news. Currently drawing unemployment - 27%

Pretty scary sh|t :eek:

hokiefan
12-16-2009, 08:31 PM
Holy crap. Thats beyond scary if true.:(

Bobby

TimH
12-16-2009, 08:35 PM
I know its true. I saw it on TV.

johnw
12-16-2009, 08:35 PM
Holy crap.
You worship strange gods, but I agree with you. That's an incredible tragedy.

TimH
12-16-2009, 08:36 PM
Its all over the internet too:

Detroit’s unemployment rate is probably near 50 percent (http://michiganmessenger.com/31983/detroits-unemployment-rate-is-probably-near-50-percent)

TimH
12-16-2009, 08:37 PM
Supposedly 20% - 30% in Washington State. Need to verify.

Keith Wilson
12-16-2009, 08:50 PM
Giant asteriod due to hit earth next Thursday!! Need to verify. :rolleyes:The Washington state unemployment rate is 9.4%. Look here for the BLS report. (http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST53000003) http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LASST53000003_221425_1261014533849.gif
I expect that unemployment figure is only for within the city limits of Detroit, which has been a total basket case for a long time. There is more difference between Detroit and its suburbs than most places. The unemployment rate for the entire Detroit metropolitan area is 16.7%.; look here. (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t01.htm) That's awful, but not as bad as the article makes it sound. Bad news sells papers.

Bob Adams
12-16-2009, 08:51 PM
Amazing how many Hyundais you can see driving around Motor City. We'll never learn.

Phillip Allen
12-16-2009, 08:54 PM
I suppose all those highly paid (once upon a time) production line workers are now gonna come foggin down to the south...driving housing pricing sky high and other things along with it

SH!t...there goes my old fishing hole!

johnw
12-16-2009, 09:05 PM
The Washington state unemployment rate is 9.4%. Look here for the BLS report. (http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST53000003) http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LASST53000003_221425_1261014533849.gif
I expect that unemployment figure is only for within the city limits of Detroit, which has been a total basket case for a long time. There is more difference between Detroit and its suburbs than most places. The unemployment rate for the entire Detroit metropolitan area is 16.7%.; look here. (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t01.htm) That's awful, but not as bad as the article makes it sound. Bad news sells papers.
I had assumed that the unemployment rate was for within the city limits. I don't see how that makes it less tragic. For some perspective, the Seattle unemployment rate is 11.5%.

Paul Pless
12-16-2009, 09:14 PM
The unemployment rate for the entire Detroit metropolitan area is 16.7%.awesome:rolleyes:

Boston
12-16-2009, 09:18 PM
the rate as reported in today's calculation method represents about half what would have been reported if the numbers where being calculated using the original formula to determine unemployment. The gov. in all its wisdom decided to not continue counting little things like, people who failed to qualify for unemployment, people who's unemployment has run out or people who have stopped looking for work, to name a few. Add it all up and you begin to see that the numbers have been fudged downward with every new deduction added by every new administration that was seeking to make its own numbers look better.

The real number is about double what the gov is reporting

hows that for scary eh mates

the boat is full of holes and sinking
and the captain is ignoring half the holes
what are the chances of survival

:-)

Keith Wilson
12-16-2009, 09:20 PM
don't see how that makes it less tragic. It doesn't, but it's a somewhat smaller tragedy. Detroit has been in awful shape for a long time , and the recession only made it worse. FWIW Minneapolis-St Paul's rate is 7.1%. Metropolitan area data is here. (http://www.bls.gov/web/laulrgma.htm)
The real number is about double what the gov is reporting You have any evidence for that?

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-16-2009, 09:41 PM
You have any evidence for that?

I think what he means is that people who run out of benefits and therefore stop registering as unemployed at the state unemployment agency, no longer show up statistically. The same is true for people who have been out of work for years, or worked recently but did not accumulate enough time to qualify for unemployment benefits, or are or were part-time workers. All of these go uncounted in the statistics, unless the person takes the time to register, and usually they don't unless there are benefits to be had.

Phillip Allen
12-16-2009, 09:44 PM
I think what he means is that people who run out of benefits and therefore stop registering as unemployed at the state unemployment agency, no longer show up statistically. The same is true for people who have been out of work for years, or worked recently but did not accumulate enough time to qualify for unemployment benefits, or are or were part-time workers. All of these go uncounted in the statistics, unless the person takes the time to register, and usually they don't unless there are benefits to be had.

he knew that...he was just saying "Prove it!"

ljb5
12-16-2009, 09:44 PM
I think what he means is that people who run out of benefits and therefore stop registering as unemployed at the state unemployment agency, no longer show up statistically. The same is true for people who have been out of work for years, or worked recently but did not accumulate enough time to qualify for unemployment benefits, or are or were part-time workers. All of these go uncounted in the statistics, unless the person takes the time to register, and usually they don't unless there are benefits to be had.

That's not how unemployment is measured.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where


Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Indeed, people who run out of benefits do, in fact, show up in the statistics.

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-16-2009, 09:46 PM
The unemployment rate is so bad in Deroit proper, so concentrated, that the funding of government and utility infrastructure, especially fixed costs, is impossible. (Unless there is rapid deflation of those unit costs, both in materials and wages.)

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-16-2009, 09:51 PM
That's not how unemployment is measured.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where



Indeed, people who run out of benefits do, in fact, show up in the statistics.

I stand corrected, partly. That still leaves out the homeless, transients, migrant workers, and anyone else who is not easily contacted by mail or phone. There were several points in my life where I would have fallen through the cracks. But it's good to see that they at least recognize some shortcomings and are trying to get an accurate count. How they would count people who have no address, I don't know. Also:


The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:


People with jobs are employed.
People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.

If a person looks for work every week for a year and gets no bites, and stops looking because there seem to be no jobs to be found right now, they are still unemployed, even if the government does not count them as such. Someone who goes on the road to a new city to look for work, and because of that, cannot continue to visit his unemployment office at home, where he is registered, also does not show up.

Keith Wilson
12-16-2009, 09:53 PM
I'm sure that there are some people who aren't counted. The question is, how many, and has the percentage changed significantly over time? Boston made an unsupported claim that "the real number is about double what the gov is reporting". That needs good evidence to back it up before anyone takes it at all seriously.

Ian McColgin
12-16-2009, 09:57 PM
The real number has always been low and I find them as useful as measuring military success by body count. Too easily fooled with.

Just as careful military analysts look to prisoners captured, so we might take known jobs, including government, and compare that to the working population of adults (age range can be fiddled) minus what we understand to be people disabled from work and people who are full-time unpaid caregivers to children, parents or whatever.

Still, so long as the method is kept the same, which it has for about 20 years or so, the relative movement of unemployment rate is a reasonable guage of what's happening.

Right now, such little stabilizing as might be happening is way too slight for any responsible person to say that we've turned a corner or hit bottom or whatever. Can't say that we're still in what amounted to near free-fall either.

Phillip Allen
12-16-2009, 09:57 PM
well...I'll concede that that city is in deep dodo...next question...what now?

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-16-2009, 10:02 PM
well...I'll concede that that city is in deep dodo...next question...what now?

'Doze it over flat. Most houses there aren't worth saving, the few good ones have already been restored in small enclaves, the rest already are too far gone from decay. Dig canals from the Detroit River to deep into the city. Put in the biggest marina ever with canal-front homes. Build them nice, not out of ticky-tacky. Not mcmansions, but nice efficient 3 story row houses with style. People will want to live there again. Too bad it would be "gentrification". Also, besides no jobs there, the weather is poor, no snow anymore in the winter, just cold, and hot and humid in the summer. So not enough appeal even if it is marina heaven.

Make it the world's biggest franchisee of private storage units.

Maybe just try to secede, elect a corrupt government leader, then get the feds to donate billions of dollars in aid to combat the "terrorist threat". Wait, they tried that, at least the corruption part.

'Doze it flat and turn it into an outdoor rifle range. There are a lot fewer of those than there used to be. Hey, no jokes about it already being an outdoor rifle range.

Boston
12-16-2009, 10:04 PM
prove it
I love it when people say that stuff
ok
lets go about proving it this way
go look up the original method of calculating unemployment and get back to me
we can go from there

Best
B

rbgarr
12-16-2009, 10:12 PM
The entire Pontiac Silverdome (including parking) sold for less than a two bedroom apartment in NYC a few weeks ago: $583,000.

http://detnews.com/article/20091117/METRO/911170327/Silverdome-sale-price-disappoints
(http://www.wildernessscotland.com/adventures.php?tripID=151)

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-16-2009, 10:18 PM
The entire Pontiac Silverdome (including parking) sold for less than a two bedroom apartment in NYC a few weeks ago: $583,000.

http://detnews.com/article/20091117/METRO/911170327/Silverdome-sale-price-disappoints
(http://www.wildernessscotland.com/adventures.php?tripID=151)

I saw that. I would have had regrets about not buying it myself, but the maintenance costs of the flexible roof are much more than the purchase costs.

In the preceding years, they had rollerskating around the upper decks, and autocross races in the (sizable) parking lot.

Paul Pless
12-16-2009, 10:19 PM
prove it
I love it when people say that stuff
ok
lets go about proving it this way
go look up the original method of calculating unemployment and get back to me
we can go from there

Best
BI think you're definitely on to something here, the original method to calculate employment rates was very differnet when the Bureau of Labor was formed in 1884, than the method used in 1903, or 1920, or 1933, 34, 35, 36, 1940, or 1950, or 1980, or 1992, or even now.

Peter Malcolm Jardine
12-16-2009, 10:24 PM
I was in Detroit three weeks ago to pick up some engine parts. It was like a scene from a science fiction movie. Pretty little houses made of brick, in what were nice working class subdivisions abandoned, windows broken, looted, evidence of small fires, grass high on gardens that were once cared for... and not just a few... hundreds of them as we drove through the area. Inconceivable landscapes in what once was a pillar of prosperity and power in America.

Paul Pless
12-16-2009, 10:26 PM
I was in Detroit three weeks ago to pick up some engine parts. next time this happens you should let us know...

Peter Malcolm Jardine
12-16-2009, 10:29 PM
I was up and back in a day... the guy I went to see was on Ford Road,... can't remember the number. It was a bit of a hoof for one day, but hell, I did Cleveland and back in a day this fall too. I have to add that I was deeply saddened by Detroit's troubles. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

JBreeze
12-16-2009, 10:29 PM
I'm sure that there are some people who aren't counted. The question is, how many, and has the percentage changed significantly over time? Boston made an unsupported claim that "the real number is about double what the gov is reporting". That needs good evidence to back it up before anyone takes it at all seriously.

John Williams does a pretty good job:

http://www.shadowstats.com/

TimH
12-16-2009, 11:51 PM
Detroit is a tinder box.

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-17-2009, 12:11 AM
Detroit is a tinder box.

That would by definition require a revolt by which a mass of people take over something of value. I think if a mass of people converged on the Ren-Cen, the rest of the world would say, "Keep it." That's why things are especially bad, because no one relies on Detroit for anything anymore. Even the Detroit companies, which even the US government does not rely on for vehicles, have their headquarters and all of their manufacturing outside of the city of Detroit. The last car plant in Detroit, if I recall, was the Jeep Jefferson Avenue Assembly, I can't recall if that is still open.

The people of Detroit have to care enough about themselves to lift themselves, because no one else will care. But most of the population there does not have the tools to better themselves. They can only start by tearing down abandoned buidings and bettering the ones worth saving. I can only hope that Detroit's new mayor, Dave Bing, who was a successful small businessman, will be able to do something. I felt another candidate, Kenneth Cockrel, Jr, had a better chance, but Bing is generally respected by all, but I don't know if he will take action, or whether he has the ability to do so, the roadblocks being available resources, of course, and also the city council, mired in the status quo and defending their own fiefdoms.

brad9798
12-17-2009, 12:15 AM
Well, there's only one way to fix it ... buy a Honda!

peter radclyffe
12-17-2009, 01:05 AM
Amazing how many Hyundais you can see driving around Motor City. We'll never learn.
they still listen to motown in tokyo

TimH
12-17-2009, 01:29 AM
This country is crumbling guys.
Look at Detroit and NOLA. Compare them to any city in Japan or Germany. Who won WWII again?

Just about time to bail.

brad9798
12-17-2009, 01:45 AM
Maybe not bail ... just buy a Camry or Accord built HERE!!!

;)

TimH
12-17-2009, 02:29 AM
Its beyond buying cars.
We are in hock up to our asses with no way to pay it back.
Its like loading up a credit card and then losing your job. Then your car breaks. Thats current America.

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-17-2009, 05:24 AM
Its beyond buying cars.
We are in hock up to our asses with no way to pay it back.
Its like loading up a credit card and then losing your job. Then your car breaks. Thats current America.

And the only way out of it is to declare bankruptcy and start over. Usually then, with a personal or chapter 7 business bankruptcy, any assets are auctioned off to satisfy debts, with some exceptions in personal assets, some states let you keep your house. With chapter 11, you get to keep all the assets and reorganize and keep on going, like GM was allowed to do, your debts just dissolve into the ether, and your creditors and stockholders are left holding worthless paper. Just don't expect to be able to borrow any money for a long time. What would happen with an American bankruptcy with other countries holding our debt? Well they would probably stop shipping goods to us (possibly good, there is not much we actually need (versus want) from our creditors.) They would also probably stop buying goods from us, but they don't do that enough anyway, that's the problem. Some industries would get reestablished in the US, with government funding for working capital, and some foreign-owned businesses would be nationalized. It would help the US balance of trade. it would screw China. So far, so good. Inflation would be the problem.

Paul Pless
12-17-2009, 05:47 AM
Even the Detroit companies, which even the US government does not rely on for vehicles, have their headquarters and all of their manufacturing outside of the city of Detroit. last time i was downtown this seemed to be at the very heart of the city, its been a few weeks so i guess they may have moved out by now. . .

http://geotauaisay.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/gm_headquarters_new.jpg

to the best of my knowledge, Ford's headquarters has never been in Detroit, but has always been centered in Dearborn where they are today. I'm not sure of Chrysler's history.

skuthorp
12-17-2009, 05:52 AM
There is an Aussie politician mooting the failure of the US to service it's debts.
"TONY Abbott's new finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the American Government may default on its debt, triggering an ''economic Armageddon'' that will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance."
(Tony abbott is the new leader of Aussies conservative party)
http://www.theage.com.au/national/joyces-armageddon-warning-20091210-km90.html

PeterSibley
12-17-2009, 06:10 AM
There is an Aussie politician mooting the failure of the US to service it's debts.
"TONY Abbott's new finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the American Government may default on its debt, triggering an ''economic Armageddon'' that will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance."
(Tony abbott is the new leader of Aussies conservative party)
http://www.theage.com.au/national/joyces-armageddon-warning-20091210-km90.html

Saying the unsayable .

Katherine
12-17-2009, 06:26 AM
Good morning all. Nice to see that my state has been bashed, the Metro area I live in has been bashed, my industry has been bashed, the company I work for has been bashed, and the car I drive has been bashed.:rolleyes:

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
12-17-2009, 06:28 AM
last time i was downtown this seemed to be at the very heart of the city, its been a few weeks so i guess they may have moved out by now. . .

http://geotauaisay.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/gm_headquarters_new.jpg

Only the GM "suits" work there. Useless. Wouldn't be noticed if they dropped off the face of the earth. That was my point. The GM Tech Center is five miles north of the Detroit border, in Warren, Michigan. That, they need. Although the design work is increasingly decentralized to outside suppliers, you still need skilled design, integration, development, test, manufacturing, and quality engineers. And I suppose some sales and marketing people too, but they have been top heavy in that department forever. If you make a great car, word gets around at the speed of light on the internet, it'll sell itself.

Ford's brains are about five miles west of Detroit in Dearborn, Michigan, and Chrysler's brains are about fifteen miles north of Detroit in Auburn Hills, Michigan. Do you sense a trend? Actually, to be fair, Ford was always in Dearborn and GM set up their Tech Center back in the 50s when Detroit was still a good place to live. In fact, GM headquarters was still in Detroit, they only moved into the Renaissance Center when it could be had for a song. Chrysler was the last one to leave town. They were based in Highland Park which was it's own tiny city, virtually surrounded by Detroit. Their facility was ancient, and when they needed a new one in the late 80s, there was no way they could attract a good workforce with the conditions in Detroit, even back then. So a self-fulfilling prophecy, their leaving made things even worse.

skuthorp
12-17-2009, 06:32 AM
So is the place in danger of becoming a ghost town, or with all that vacant shelter are the core homeless squatting? How does the city function vis a vis civil services, policing and justice, schooling etc?
Or is ther another part of the city less effected and still functioning normally?

Paul Pless
12-17-2009, 06:43 AM
So is the place in danger of becoming a ghost town, or with all that vacant shelter are the core homeless squatting? How does the city function vis a vis civil services, policing and justice, schooling etc?
Or is ther another part of the city less effected and still functioning normally?its really complex;)

regarding city functions (govt services, etc) there's lots of politics at play, lots... at the city level at the state level and at the national level.... any explanation would be further complicated by the fact that the city and state are both using federal stimulus money to fund their operations - that money won't be available after next year.

Some of the longer term residents can give you a better view than I. Perhaps Rich or Dan will chime in. I'm sure Milo could do a very good job of characterizing the situation for you as well.

LeeG
12-17-2009, 06:59 AM
Maybe not bail ... just buy a Camry or Accord built HERE!!!

;)

or better yet, buy a used car for $5k and keep your local mechanic employed!

skuthorp
12-17-2009, 07:00 AM
Thanks Paul, I'll be in and out of range over xmas but I'll log in when I can.

Rich VanValkenburg
12-17-2009, 09:20 AM
Some of the longer term residents can give you a better view than I. Perhaps Rich or Dan will chime in. I'm sure Milo could do a very good job of characterizing the situation for you as well.

Yeah, I'm here, living the dream, uhh... nightmare. There are some here that are trying to figure out when the civil war will start.

When GM took over that glass house on the river there was a lot of talk about why. Why did the expensive suits really need a riverfront office when they had all the space they needed in Warren, a city that was giving them huge tax incentives to stay? The question answers itself.

Detroit is close to 50% unemployment but they put themselves there. The Japanese way of thinking was 'do all you can for your company', not quite the same here.

From what I can see here, I don't think it'll ever come back in my working lifetime but I'm finally starting to hear "more shyte made in China" so there's hope.

Boston
12-17-2009, 09:53 AM
well that was a long read since my last shot across the bow and its nice to see most folks realize what trouble we really are in

if anyone wants to revisit the calculations for unemployment I dug up some info which Ill place in quotes so anyone who wants to just skip it can easily do so


http://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusablog/cbreiter2/october-10-2008/getting-truth-about-unemployment-rate.html

that site explains some of why its safe to say the government figures only account for about half the actual unemployed

the government story is way more complex and convoluted and can be found here

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#def

this next is enlightening

http://briansullivan.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2009/11/06/is-the-real-unemployment-rate-17-5/

this one breaks down the different reporting systems

http://www.davemanuel.com/2009/03/06/the-real-unemployment-rate-is-much-worse-than-81/

and even the govornments out PR firms are reporting an actual unemployment rate of about 17.5 % or nearly twice what the gov would have you believe

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34040009

sooooooooooo

did you do your homework and find the original method of calculating unemployment since Im on a role with unsupported claims I think Ill just make another, the real US debt is something like 782 trillion dollars

USA debt burden is growing faster than Alice on the "wonderland" mushrooms... Just look at this chart-"fun view" which may be the most painless way to show the pain coming http://www.usdebtclock.org/ ( dam I forgot to unsupport that one )

012 trillion - - - . USA National Debt
002 trillion - - - . State and Local debt
017 trillion - - - . Private (individual/family) debt
002 trillion - - - . Federal Money created by the FED (loaned to the Government)
628 trillion - - - . Currency and credit Derivatives
011 trillion - - - . Bailouts
004 trillion - - - . Carry trade etc
106 trillion - - - . Unfunded liabilities

(ignore the leading 0's as there is no way I could readily column-ate) and the grand debt of USA to date -

give or take a trillion is 782 TRILLION... And that does NOT include the "toxic debt", sold as investment vehicles to stupid investors off shore (in Europe, Australia and many other countries where the Keynesian economic lie is worshipped...)

To put that in perspective, the GDP for the WORLD in 2008 was 66 trillion -

So the US debt is near 12 times what the whole world could produce in a good year... - - -

If you consider just the US gross domestic product as applicable to this debt and leave off the interest it would take about 75 years to pay it off, if you applied the entire GDP to this debt and nothing else for the entire 75 years

Now
Anyone wanna take a crack at what the total assets of the USA are, or better yet can anyone give me the definition of insolvent?

Crooked politicians selling this country into debt for the benefit of the corporate oligarchy at the expense of the people those rat bastards where supposed to be representing is the root of the problem. The day will come when Democrats and Republicans together find themselves swinging from the ropes they imported from China and that day, is the day this country turns itself around.

cheers
B

ishmael
12-17-2009, 10:03 AM
Scary stuff. I had a history professor, a bit pink, who was fond of saying that when unemployment reaches 25% you've got a revolution on your hands. Detroit must be a tinder box these days, ripe for serious civil unrest when the weather warms up. I hope not, because when that happens the people who are hurt most are the ones who can ill afford to lose any more.

During Cleveland's race riots of the sixties whole blocks of the inner city were gutted or burned to the ground. When TV coverage got in there it was a scene out of a post-apocalyptic nightmare.

Good luck Motorcity folks.

Keith Wilson
12-17-2009, 10:16 AM
We certainly have our share of troubles, but most of the doom and gloom folks here haven't got a clue what they really are.

Any evidence yet to back up your claim that "real" unemployment is twice the official number? "Shadowstats" did exactly what you did, made assertions without providing any way to check them. You have to subscribe for $175 to go deeper - and sorry, I have better things to do with my money. Boston, understand how this game is played: If someone makes a claim about a matter of fact, it's their responsibility to back it up with evidence when challenged. If they can't or won't, than it becomes obvious they don't know what they're talking about.

Public debt figures: The current numbers are higher, but the relative positions haven't changed much.

http://topforeignstocks.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/3-oecd-public-debt.JPG

Boston
12-17-2009, 10:51 AM
you might try reading my last
its chock full of "evidence"

That unsupported claim turned out to be pretty darn easy to substantiate.
Just click on the little blue letters in my last and a whole new world may open up those blood shot peepers to the reality of how our illustrious leaders have fudged the numbers. Again.

If your still having trouble understanding why and how the numbers are under-reported you might go the simple rout and look back through even just this thread and then realize the official number for Detroit is under 30% although the real number is more like 50%

if you click on these little colored letters below you might find more people who dont know what they are talking about that agree. The government is under-reporting unemployment by roughly half

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/16/detroits-unemployment-rat_n_394559.html

Best of luck with what is apparently a difficult realization for you. Not sure what your on about but its an interesting set of glaringly apparent issues you have going there

cheers
and best of luck with that

B

Keith Wilson
12-17-2009, 11:30 AM
Ah, there we go. Real evidence. Thanks. There are several methods of calculating unemployment; the authors prefer one which includes more people. Any of them will do for tracking trends since they follow each other very closely. It is interesting that they claim the "official" measure has been revised a couple of times, yet there doesn't appear to be a big change in the rate when those adjustments occurred. BTW, none of that was there when I posted #52; it was added in an edit afterward.

And debt is NOT our problem over the short and medium term. Longer-term, yes, but not for the present. Economic contraction, unemployment, and possibly even deflation are the immediate problems. Worrying about the debt right now is like being concerned about water conservation when your house is on fire. Some folks have leaned nothing from the great depression. Fortunately, some have. I refer you to The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money By John Maynard Keynes. You can read it here. (http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300071h/0-index.html)

ishmael
12-17-2009, 11:35 AM
The place I summered as a kid was on a lake maybe five hours North of Detroit. Most of the folks there were in the automobile business in one way or another. A lot of money around, and in just about every driveway was either a Cadillac or a Lincoln. Ours always held a Chevy wagon. The last time I was through there, maybe three years ago, not much in the way of American iron anymore. The neuvo rich, now not so nuevo anymore, were mostly driving Mercedes and high end Japanese buggies.

No matter what the actual figures are, it's difficult to imagine Detroit so down on its luck.

I had an uncle who was a parts supplier to the big three back in the salad days. While always a bit gritty, Detroit was a vibrant place. I think if they are waiting for a renaissance they better look elsewhere than the auto industry. With everyone and their brother building cars in places with much lower wages I can't imagine it ever being more than a shadow of its former self. And once you lose skilled workers to attrition it's difficult to get them back, even if there is a bounce.

But, what do I know? I do hope I'm wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

TimH
12-17-2009, 01:08 PM
So when the stimulus money runs out what happens? Borrow more from China? Let anarchy prevail?
Waiting to see what happens might not be the best option. Maybe the only one though.

johnw
12-17-2009, 01:54 PM
prove it
I love it when people say that stuff
ok
lets go about proving it this way
go look up the original method of calculating unemployment and get back to me
we can go from there

Best
B
If it's double, that means the real rate is what, 89.6%? If you're going to make such a remarkable assertion, you do need to back it up.

TimH
12-17-2009, 02:08 PM
the actual rate drawing unenjoyment is %27
He is saying the actual number is about double - or %50
Thats about what all the stories say.

TimH
12-17-2009, 02:47 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GD8lUeV2J10&feature=player_embedded#at=88

johnw
12-17-2009, 04:31 PM
the actual rate drawing unenjoyment is %27
He is saying the actual number is about double - or %50
Thats about what all the stories say.
The thread title says 44.8%, so I assume that's what he was addressing.

TimH
12-17-2009, 04:51 PM
44.8% is what KOMO said on the news last night was the actual (real) number.

Boston
12-17-2009, 05:11 PM
you realize this means you have to wear the hat and sit in the corner for a while

http://quakeragitator.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/dunce-cap1.jpg

The gov. says the the unemployment rate in Detroit is below ~26 to 28% where as the rest of humanity seems to all agree its actually nearly twice that.

not sure how this turned into pulling teeth but lying also known as massaging or fudging the numbers is a basic of gov statistics reporting, becomes particularly evident in election years.

sooooooo
I notice no one approached the issue of insolvency I mentioned
782 trillion in debt
75 years of applying the entire GDP to pay it off and that not even considering interest
and what is the total net value of all assets?

anyone want to provide the definition of insolvent to the group

B

BrianW
12-17-2009, 05:23 PM
Good morning all. Nice to see that my state has been bashed, the Metro area I live in has been bashed, my industry has been bashed, the company I work for has been bashed, and the car I drive has been bashed.:rolleyes:

Better protect your dog! Send out Paul. :D

TimH
12-17-2009, 05:37 PM
taking notice of the state of your state, metro area, and industry is considered bashing Kat?

Boston
12-17-2009, 05:37 PM
the country as a whole needs bashing
a good swift kick in the pants

from the Agora Financial
five minute forcast


“Here’s one of the big trends -- one that will have profound consequences for the entire world,” Bill Bonner begins today’s 5 Min. Forecast. As we’ve done since The 5’s inception, we aim to make this time of year extra forecastey. After all, the markets are a bit dull, and the New Year is right around the corner. OK… back to Bill’s prediction:

According to a Goldman study, nearly half the world's economic growth is now occurring in just four countries. And neither the U.S. nor Britain is on the list. Nor is any other developed country. The four are the BRICs... Brazil, Russia, India and China. They were given a big boost by the Fed, which has kept the price of credit in the U.S. artificially low for almost an entire generation. This increased consumer demand in the U.S. for foreign products, indirectly transferring a substantial part of the U.S. GDP to the emerging market exporters.

This year, nearly twice as many IPOs were completed in Hong Kong as in either New York or London. Why? Because there is more new economic activity in Asia than in the mature Anglo-Saxon markets. And because there is more money available in those emerging markets than there is in the West.

This trend could come to an end at any time. But it is unlikely. The Industrial Revolution favored the West. The next phase of global development seems to favor the new emerging markets. They don't have the legacy costs and corruptions of mature industrial societies. No giant military establishments. Minimal social security and public health care systems. Smaller welfare, education and health bureaucracies. Fewer lobbyists and entrenched special interests. Fewer retirees. In short, fewer parasites.

that last in bold was not my doing the article was printed that way when I got it but its an interesting point in itself. In this country retirees tend to be on there own every man for himself kind of thing but in the emerging countries these folks dont have any organized welfare so instead they institute a form of social welfare where the parents pound out enough children in there lifetime that surely one of them if not some number of them will not just survive but thrive and then be able to take care of good old mom and pop in there golden years. Hence overpopulation and the unwashed masses just itching for that corporate entity to come in with jobs shipped out by America and sold to the lowest bidder.

ah the trauma that is economics

that near 50% unemployment in the motor city
just give it about a year when all that funny money runs out and the stock market realizes that first blip was exactly that, just the first blip. Then your going to see unemployment kicking in.

my two cents folks
cheers
B

TimH
12-17-2009, 05:43 PM
Well Brazil is my choice of the 4. Time to start packing and ordering my Brazilian Portugese Rosetta Stone course.

hokiefan
12-17-2009, 05:46 PM
The gov. says the the unemployment rate in Detroit is below ~26 to 28% where as the rest of humanity seems to all agree its actually nearly twice that.

sooooooo
I notice no one approached the issue of insolvency I mentioned
782 trillion in debt
75 years of applying the entire GDP to pay it off and that not even considering interest
and what is the total net value of all assets?

anyone want to provide the definition of insolvent to the group

B

Well, I'll take on part of it, the personal debt part. I have a chunk of that debt. The biggest portion is my mortgage. There is a car loan and more consumer debt than I believe is good. But I have assets that more than cover my debt. I also have a reasonably good income. I have more debt than I want, but I'm a long way from insolvent. My net worth is decidedly positive.

I know there are a lot of people that are the other way around, but I would bet that on the whole personal assets outway personal debt. So while some people are insolvent, people in the aggragate are not. YMMV.

Cheers,

Bobby

Keith Wilson
12-17-2009, 05:55 PM
782 trillion in debt . . . Eh? Where did that number come from? US national (government) debt is roughly $12 trillion. What's the other $770 trillion? You do realize that's $2.5 million for every man, woman, and child in the US? I certainly haven't been doing my part; maybe I should borrow a couple of million . . . .

Katherine
12-17-2009, 05:58 PM
taking notice of the state of your state, metro area, and industry is considered bashing Kat?Michigan is more then just Detroit.
Detroit is more then just the burned out crack shell the media portrays it as.
My employer is not any more or less evil because they started in Japan.
My car is not the anti-christ because of the badgeing it carries.

TimH
12-17-2009, 06:04 PM
Michigan is more then just Detroit.


I know that. I have spent a huge part of my life in Michigan. My family is from there. I will possibly retire there. There is no place Is rather be in the summer.



Detroit is more then just the burned out crack shell the media portrays it as.

Detroit has always been a weird place. My first impression of it back in the 80s is that it was an eerie place.


My employer is not any more or less evil because they started in Japan.

Nobody said that they were.


My car is not the anti-christ because of the badgeing it carries.
Yes it is.

Boston
12-17-2009, 06:07 PM
Kathy
if you check under the hood Im sure you can find horns and a tail in there somewhere

basically if your not buying American or if your hanging out at places like walmart or home depot your part of the problem rather than part of the solution

Kieth
just read back through and Im sure you will figure it out

cheers
B

Keith Wilson
12-17-2009, 06:12 PM
just read back through and I'm sure you will figure it out
Ah, almost entirely "currency and credit derivatives". Total BS, reflecting a complete misunderstanding of what a "derivative" is. We have real problems, some of them very serious, but it's becoming perfectly clear you don't have a clue what they are.

Boston
12-17-2009, 06:19 PM
you seem to really struggle with some deep seated need to be rude, you want to try that one again or do you just want to try on that hat and sit in the corner for a while as well

Boston
12-17-2009, 06:24 PM
a little bed time story of the derivatives market




Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. She realizes that
virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such,
can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she
comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now,
but pay later.

She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the
customers loans). Word gets around about Heidi’s “drink now, pay later”
marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers
flood into Heidi’s bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any
bar in Detroit. By providing her customers’ freedom from immediate
payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals,
she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most
consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi’s gross sales volume increases
massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that
these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases
Heidi’s borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since
he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these
customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These
securities are then bundled and traded on international security
markets. Naive investors don’t really understand that the securities
being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of
unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb,
and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the
nation’s leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager
at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand
payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi’s bar. He so
informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being
unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since,
Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy.
The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%. The
collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it
from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in
the community.

The suppliers of Heidi’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions
and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the various BOND
securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her
bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.
Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family
business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is
taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and
lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective
executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion dollar no-strings
attached cash infusion from the Government. The funds required for this
bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class
non-drinkers.

soooooooooo
once again that clueless man behind the curtain proves himself to actually have a perfectly valid point.

I think they call whats ailing you hoof in mouth disease there Kieth
you might try thinking before you speak out in such a volatile manor in future

Katherine
12-17-2009, 06:26 PM
Kathy
if you check under the hood Im sure you can find horns and a tail in there somewhere

basically if your not buying American or if your hanging out at places like walmart or home depot your part of the problem rather than part of the solution

I thought GREED was the real problem.:rolleyes:

I admit going to hell and living there. Paul raises rotties there. However, my car is not named Damien.

ishmael
12-17-2009, 06:27 PM
"Michigan is more then just Detroit."

Yes. What is your sense of what is going on in the car industry, Kate? You work there, so I'd like to hear.

Paul Pless
12-17-2009, 06:31 PM
you seem to really struggle with some deep seated need to be rude, you want to try that one again or do you just want to try on that hat and sit in the corner for a while as well


a little bed time story of the derivatives market



soooooooooo
once again that clueless man behind the curtain proves himself to actually have a perfectly valid point.

I think they call whats ailing you hoof in mouth disease there Kieth
you might try thinking before you speak out in such a volatile manor in futurenot another one:rolleyes::eek:

Katherine
12-17-2009, 06:36 PM
What is your sense of what is going on in the car industry, Kate? You work there, so I'd like to hear.Very stressful.

johnw
12-17-2009, 06:40 PM
not another one:rolleyes::eek:
Yep. But at least he showed that picture of him sitting in the corner.

JBreeze
12-17-2009, 07:16 PM
This is fun!:D

1) There is plenty of info about John Williams and Shadowstats on the web, including recorded interviews - all for free. Check them out and come to your own conclusions about his work.

2) The chart in the 10:16 am post is misleading, as I think it only shows federal debt. To check the financial health of a country, it would be more interesting to compare total debt by country. What I would like to see is the combination of total federal debt + personal debt + state and local debt + corporate debt + projected federal entitlement "debt". One such review of the U.S. has this total at over 800% of U.S. GDP. Think about that for a momemt - if interest rates rise what does it mean about the cost of servicing that debt?

I would love to see what that per capita number is for China, Australia, Brazil., etc.

3) Is the contemporary interpretation of Keynes the only real economic truth? Only in America;)

4) I'm not a total gloom and doomer, but if you takes your cues from the BLS, the Administration, the popular press, etc., you might be missing the boat!

Keith Wilson
12-17-2009, 09:44 PM
I'm beginning to suspect Mr. Boston might be related to one of the dear departed. Or maybe not - but the style is similar, if a bit more moderate. Counting derivatives as debt is still arrant nonsense.

Yes, JBreeze if you could find figures for total debt that would be interesting. Comparative figures for other countries would be helpful as well. I couldn't find anything like that with a brief search. My point in posting the graph was to show that US government indebtedness is similar to other developed economies - not that this is good, but that it's not exceptional.

The new Keynesian approach is about the best we have, IMHO, and not only in the US. In fact, it's been considerably more popular in other countries. Up until recently the neoclassical Chicago school folks were more influential in the US. Again, worrying about debt right now is water conservation when the problem is a fire.

Dan McCosh
12-17-2009, 10:34 PM
Might note that the actual city of Detroit is about 15% of the metropolitan Detroit area, which tends to skew any statistics about urban problems. It's basically the poorest section of the area, and the largest poverty pocket in the State as well. The current unemployment the metropolitan area and state are at Depression levels, however, affecting a lot of people. In good times, roughly half the old city is on public assistance of some sort.

Ross M
12-17-2009, 10:40 PM
not another one:rolleyes::eek:

Unconvinced this is a different one ;)

Boston
12-18-2009, 05:34 AM
even thought the majority of derivatives are based on some form of debt or another
its always best to admit when you are wrong and move on to have learned something and benefited from the knowing


Im out
best of luck folks
somewhere in this thing awaits a polite and intelligent conversation
eventually Ill bump into it
hopefully

B

TimH
12-18-2009, 10:29 AM
I thought GREED was the real problem.:rolleyes:

I admit going to hell and living there. Paul raises rotties there. However, my car is not named Damien.

Greedy people who choose not to put their money back into the same pot it came from but to send it to someone elses pot.
Buying imported crap instead of buying the crap that is produced local to you and provides the majority of your jobs and tax base is a form of greed.
We are now witnessing the obvious consequences of this.

johnw
12-18-2009, 02:32 PM
even thought the majority of derivatives are based on some form of debt or another
its always best to admit when you are wrong and move on to have learned something and benefited from the knowing


Im out
best of luck folks
somewhere in this thing awaits a polite and intelligent conversation
eventually Ill bump into it
hopefully

B
Thanks. You leaving is the most likely way to achieve the goal of a polite and intelligent conversation.