PDA

View Full Version : Investments you wish you would have made.



huisjen
10-20-2009, 07:51 AM
Ocean Power Technology opened at 5.64 on last Tuesday morning. Thursday it peaked at 9.2999. Don't you hate it when you see things like that?

Dan

Popeye
10-20-2009, 07:56 AM
not really , it may be driven by speculation and not intrinsic value

i knew a guy who bought ibm shares for 25 cents each , back when they made typewriters

Popeye
10-20-2009, 08:03 AM
the trick to investing is survivability

Popeye
10-20-2009, 08:04 AM
Who cares what drives it?

different ball of wax for the day traders donn

Popeye
10-20-2009, 08:18 AM
All stock market activity is speculation

is speculation spelled with a small 's' or a big assed 'S' ?

investors are the guys who understand how to manage that speculation

Paul Pless
10-20-2009, 08:22 AM
Investments you wish you would have made. I missed my bet on Superbowl XXV.

More recently I wish I had Obama for the Nobel Peace Prize. The London gaming houses paid 35-1.

huisjen
10-20-2009, 08:27 AM
Thanks Paul. That puts it in great perspective. :D

Dan

George.
10-20-2009, 08:36 AM
Luck is very important. I bought GE, CAT, and SPY during the first week of March. I obviously look very smart right now. But back in March when I did it, Schrodinger's cat was not out of the box yet: a second Great Depression was at least as likely as a steep recovery. I could be kicking myself now, contemplating the possibility of not recovering my capital for years, maybe a decade - think of people who bought in 1930 thinking they were buying low.

Moral of the story: you have to understand probability and distinguish between lucky and smart. Lucky is what I was in March, though it would be flattering to think otherwise. Smart is what I am doing now, which is writing calls for all I'm worth on those stocks: the cat might still turn out to be dead.

Canoez
10-20-2009, 08:42 AM
APPL - At about 16 or so... :rolleyes:

Hindsight - and at the time I would have if I hadn't just bought a house. Actually, at the time, the house was a good investment.

Paul Pless
10-20-2009, 08:55 AM
It depends where you use it in the sentence.> :D

Popeye
10-20-2009, 09:00 AM
All that is required for success is observation, liquid capital and the mechanical ability to trade quickly.

i saw a bit one time where a group of day traders were asked if they could make 100 'successes' in a row , nobody could do it , not even close

my observation is at some point , speculation turns into gambling

Tealsmith
10-20-2009, 09:22 AM
I wish I had bought Alaska back when it went for 2.5 Cents per acre

George Roberts
10-20-2009, 09:30 AM
Many times in my life I have "rebalanced" my portfolio only to have my wife "rebalanced" it a few days later. Most of the time we would have made out much better without my wife's assistance.

But investments are only money, no need to place blame for failure or give credit for success.

peb
10-20-2009, 10:08 AM
Luck is very important. I bought GE, CAT, and SPY during the first week of March. I obviously look very smart right now. But back in March when I did it, Schrodinger's cat was not out of the box yet: a second Great Depression was at least as likely as a steep recovery. I could be kicking myself now, contemplating the possibility of not recovering my capital for years, maybe a decade - think of people who bought in 1930 thinking they were buying low.

Moral of the story: you have to understand probability and distinguish between lucky and smart. Lucky is what I was in March, though it would be flattering to think otherwise. Smart is what I am doing now, which is writing calls for all I'm worth on those stocks: the cat might still turn out to be dead.

All of investing is part luck, but George. is correct, its about probability. I can put my money in a FDIC backed CD and still have a loss, but assuming it is less than the FDIC limit, I would have to be very unlucky. Right now, I think continued stock market gains may require a lot of luck. CAT may be the poster child for where we are. in 2007, they had earnings per share of $5.37 and were trading in the $60 range. For an industrial company with quite a bit of leverage, seems like a decent evaluation. Now, maybe their earnings will improve to 1.50 this year (pro-forma around 2.25), maybe improve to 2.75 next year. Does anyone believe their earnings will reach the $5 range in 2 years? Apparently, quite a few people do, but I suspect it is a lot more of the traders of the world trying to ride a wave. Very shakey ground we are standing on IMO. Note: CAT may be one of those companies whose earnings will go up with the pace of the dollar decline, so that makes offsets this analysis somewhat.

Milo Christensen
10-20-2009, 10:34 AM
I look back and wish that I'd invested more in myself. Not money, but time spent on my education. Why didn't I invest more time on organic chemistry? Organic was the key to open the doors to Med School or the School of Public Health.

Kaa
10-20-2009, 10:43 AM
All that is required for success (profit) is observation, liquid capital and the mechanical ability to trade quickly.

I don't really think so. If this were true, automated trading programs run by (what used to be) Wall St. banks would have cash pouring out of them in large amounts. They don't.

The big ingredient that you're missing is risk management.

Actually, market-makers are closer to what you describe and even for them success is not guaranteed and risk management is what makes or breaks them.

Kaa

Paul Pless
10-20-2009, 10:44 AM
Jesus Milo, you've got more education than 95% of the bilge rats; and you want more?:eek::D

I hear you though. I 'd be a professional student if I could pull it off. For my next trick though, I'd like some vocational or artisan education for a change. . .

George.
10-20-2009, 11:06 AM
CAT may be the poster child for where we are. in 2007, they had earnings per share of $5.37 and were trading in the $60 range. For an industrial company with quite a bit of leverage, seems like a decent evaluation. Now, maybe their earnings will improve to 1.50 this year (pro-forma around 2.25), maybe improve to 2.75 next year. Does anyone believe their earnings will reach the $5 range in 2 years?

Depends on what $5 will buy you in 2 years. ;)

But I agree. CAT and a lot of other stuff seems overpriced, and much of the hope rides on the China bubble. Which may burst.

I must confess to extreme prejudice against anything that depends on China, financially speaking. In my opinion they combine two of the worst possible traits of an economic culture: communism and corruption.

Bob (oh, THAT Bob)
10-21-2009, 06:35 AM
Ford at 1.26 back in the fall, or even at 2 in the spring. It seemed very low, and they didn't have the debt that GM and Chrysler did. But I didn't think their cars were anything special, and I felt GM's product was actually better, though that was before they killed off two great new cars, the Solstice coupe and the G8 just because of the Pontiac brand (I'm more used to looking at a single company rather than the sector, but usually the latter is better), but more importantly, I couldn't afford to risk my nest egg because I want to buy a house soon. Ford is close to 8 now.

John Smith
10-21-2009, 06:45 AM
It would have been nice to get in early on Google, Cable tv boxes, Microsoft.

coelacanth2
10-22-2009, 09:06 AM
I shoulda bought Citi at a buck. I could afford to loose a couple of grand, and it would have been fun to ride it up. Should have bought a LOT more gold when it was below 300 an oz - worst case, i could have used it in the office...Grills anyone?:D

Wild Dingo
10-22-2009, 11:21 PM
I look back and kick myself in the knuts everytime I think of one particular investment opportunity that I let go past

Back 30 years I lived up here in Broome and was offered 25 acres at Coconut Wells which then was out in the bush a fair bit no roads no access no water and a bloody long hike... NO ONE lived there no one had plans of doing so and with the bitumen road into Broome a good 2 years away the tourist thing then was the yearly Shinju Matsuri festival over one week in November where the static population of Broome rose from a wonderous 4-5000 people in the REGION (a bloody big region) to a massively overcrowded 10-15000 for ONE WEEK every year... Broome then was a nothing town going nowhere or so everyone thought

Who would have known that that 25 acres at Coconut Wells that I was offered for the tidy sum of 20K would with the arrival of one pommy git named Lord McAlpine in the early 80s be worth in the area of 4-5 MILLION PLUS just a few short years later???

But no I took the idea poopooed it and that was that!.... NOW?? DAMN I HATE THAT!!! :mad: I mean all old Lord McAlpine had to do was send a message C/O the post office tellin me he was gonna pour upteen millions into the local economy and throw tourism throw the proverbial roof and make Coconut Wells and every other damned bush track to the middle of nowhere Broome into an instant $$$ generatior but did he? NO HE FRIGGIN DIDNT inconsiderate pommy basturd... and yous mob wonder why we have a go at the buggars all the time?!!!... but ah well such is life eh? :rolleyes:

Yeah that was the worst ;) thankfully :cool:

Lew Barrett
10-23-2009, 09:51 AM
I'm sure as I can be that we'll have a double dip in here (somewhere, sometime) but hats off to Donn who has successfully traded through this chaos and made profits while I've stood by on the sidelines. You do need to stand ready with your finger on the trigger these days, an acquired skill.

Given how agile you have to be, the kind of pleasant buy and hold strategies we used to enjoy don't fit this scenario anymore.

And yeah Peb, I agree with you. This is a funky environment, but then it has been for quite some time.

I resent my loser choices (at least for the moment I realize them) far more than I either enjoy my victories (which I reckon I had coming :D) or regret the winners I didn't buy. And one more yeah, I owned Microsoft early.