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TomF
07-23-2009, 12:57 PM
The Bank of Canada thinks so.

In a report released today, the Bank of Canada says the recession's over, and that our economy will grow at a 1.3% annuallized rate this quarter, though unemployment will still rise for a bit longer.

They're projecting 4% growth by early 2010, slowing to 3% a year later when supply/demand are back in balance.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/07/23/bank-canada-economy-recovery.html

I still think consumer economics is flawed, and ultimately unsustainable. But in the short term, things are looking up. The fact that a few institutions are now saying similar things means that investors likely will start to think so too, pushing the markets back up partly by sheer belief ... er, confidence. Canada's dollar rose today, probably reflecting exactly that.

John Smith
07-23-2009, 01:00 PM
The Bank of Canada thinks so.

In a report released today, the Bank of Canada says the recession's over, and that our economy will grow at a 1.3% annuallized rate this quarter, though unemployment will still rise for a bit longer.

They're projecting 4% growth by early 2010, slowing to 3% a year later when supply/demand are back in balance.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/07/23/bank-canada-economy-recovery.html

I still think consumer economics is flawed, and ultimately unsustainable. But in the short term, things are looking up. The fact that a few institutions are now saying similar things means that investors likely will start to think so too, pushing the markets back up partly by sheer belief ... er, confidence. Canada's dollar rose today, probably reflecting exactly that.
I've found people who predict economic trends are among the least reliable forecasters we have.

boylesboats
07-23-2009, 01:03 PM
No... recession ain't over till every unemployed get a good steady job, taxfree..

TimH
07-23-2009, 01:15 PM
This will be a jobless recovery. Since we all now have easy access to cheap Chinese goods, we can all survive without jobs.

peb
07-23-2009, 03:17 PM
Yeah, there are definate signs of recovery... but a slow one.

for those who care about such things, the stock market is on a tear as of late... the Dow is up nearly 200 pts right now.

For the record, the Dow increased +12.5% in the six months since Obama's inauguration.

Also, for the record, the Dow dropped -22% during the last six months of Bush's presidency.

Coincidence?

This is a confusing time for me and the market. It continues to rise, primarily on this quarters corporate earnings. All you here about is how company after company is beating estimates. That would make you think that the economy is doing better than we thought.

But while 2 out of 3 companies so far have beat estimates on profit, 2 out 3 companies so far have reported revenues that are below estimates.

Admittedly, there is no direct link between the expectations of revenues and the overall economy. But I suppose there is some level of indirect link.

TimH
07-23-2009, 03:22 PM
ever heard of "creative accounting"?

Kaa
07-23-2009, 03:23 PM
But while 2 out of 3 companies so far have beat estimates on profit, 2 out 3 companies so far have reported revenues that are below estimates.

That's a good thing. This means the companies are getting leaner and getting a good handle on their costs.

Kaa

peb
07-23-2009, 03:25 PM
That's a good thing. This means the companies are getting leaner and getting a good handle on their costs.

Kaa

Thats is one way of looking for it. The other way is that this is not lasting growth. More people/companies are not buying things. Lasting growth for any company has to come through sales, not cost cutting.

TimH
07-23-2009, 03:25 PM
http://tbn3.google.com/images?q=tbn:lKPD5rJv4TsFEM:http://techbuddha.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/g228586_chinese-flag-640.jpg

Kaa
07-23-2009, 03:53 PM
Thats is one way of looking for it. The other way is that this is not lasting growth. More people/companies are not buying things. Lasting growth for any company has to come through sales, not cost cutting.

Lasting growth does not come from demand. Lasting growth comes from the increase in the productivity of labor. Leaner companies have higher productivity of labor.

Kaa

TimH
07-23-2009, 03:58 PM
Yep. Even with 0 demand (from all you lazy out of work American consumers) we will still do well as long as we have cheap chinese labor :rolleyes:

http://thefarwright.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/rockyandbullwinkle.jpg

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
07-23-2009, 03:59 PM
This is not the end
Nor indeed the beginning of the end
.....

Kaa
07-23-2009, 04:01 PM
This is not the end
Nor indeed the beginning of the end
.....

... but is it the end of the beginning? :D

Kaa

hokiefan
07-23-2009, 04:27 PM
Of course, the stock market isn't much of a worthwhile indicator of the economy as a whole. The market reflects sentiment and opinion, far more than reality; optimism does as much, if not more, than earnings or revenue to affect the market on the upside... and similary, pessimism, on the down side.

Nonetheless, I don't think we can have a real recovery without the optimism, and its effect on the market. It appears that many economists think that this recovery wil lbe long and slow, and that seems logical to me.

Still, it's nice to see the market bump. I took a look at my portfolios a few minutes ago (hadn't really looked at them in a while), and was pretty pleased with what I saw. Certainly not recovered to anything like the pre-crash levels... but way, way better, than the 'Oh my God, there goes my retirement' feeling I was getting a few short months ago.

I do see that I need to make some adjustments, though. Some mutual funds in my IRA have changed from market leaders to laggers, and from 4-5 stars to 3.... anyone have any mutual fund touts? :)

Personal opinion I don't like them. You really can't evaluate them without evaluating their holdings, IMO. You can evaluate their track record and hope it extrapolates, but thats as far as you can go. To evaluate the future potential you have to dig into a boatload of individual companies. If your going to do all that work, just cherry pick the best of the companies. In addition, you have to pay their fees.

Having said all that, I'll give you the same advice my old boss gave me. He said, "Watch what I do, and do something else!"

Cheers,

Bobby

Peter Malcolm Jardine
07-23-2009, 04:57 PM
Yeah, there are definate signs of recovery... but a slow one.

for those who care about such things, the stock market is on a tear as of late... the Dow is up nearly 200 pts right now.

For the record, the Dow increased +12.5% in the six months since Obama's inauguration.

Also, for the record, the Dow dropped -22% during the last six months of Bush's presidency.

Coincidence?


Are you kidding Norm? Did you listen to what Obama had to say about that cop in Cambridge? He's off his rocker...and incompetent :D:D Totally

David G
07-23-2009, 08:37 PM
Over? Nope. Not yet. Things are still quite precarious.

Flying Orca
07-23-2009, 08:48 PM
We are one really good terrorist attack away from world wide depression and possible anarchy ,,,,,, and i dont believe things are going to gget better

Oh, yeah. Don't forget the turr'ists. :p

Kaa
07-23-2009, 09:24 PM
We are one really good terrorist attack away from world wide depression and possible anarchy ,,,,,, and i dont believe things are going to gget better

Oh yes. We need a strong hand to impose proper order -- right?

Kaa

Glen Longino
07-23-2009, 09:45 PM
..."one really good terrorist attack"...

That's a hell of a way to phrase it!

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
07-23-2009, 09:48 PM
Y'all might enjoy this:

....here are the title deeds of freedom which should lie in every cottage home
....... we must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones
the great principles of freedom and the rights of man
which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world
and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights,
the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury,
and the English common law
find their most famous expression
in the American Declaration of Independence.

Winston Churchill
Fulton, Missouri.
5th March 1946.

brad9798
07-24-2009, 07:39 AM
We can be idiots on one thing, PMJ, and great on another. You understand that, right? Right. ;)

Somewhat coincidence ... somewhat a more favored person in the WH! But you also knew that, Norm, right? Right! ;)

No that we have all the he said she said bullsh*t out of the way, indications are that we are on the way UP ... not OUT of it by any stretch.

The next several months of car sales will be a good indicator ... cars seem to forecast trends, economically ... good and bad!

Ted Hoppe
07-24-2009, 02:55 PM
Or maybe the recession is over and we are now living in a new reality where profits, valuations and accurate future returns are based on petrol currencies, strict government information controls, non disclosed corrupt resource allocation, emerging waste markets and wikipedia educated public opinion.

How does one value goods & service industries when costs are pegged on changing fluid lowest bid offshored labor contracts and overly compensated senior management. One might suggest that is the Wal-Mart effect in world wide practice. The recovery will not be felt until large scale corruption returns to normal accepted business practices; Hookers no longer offering new business discounts; marinas no longer offering lien sales, corner stores no longer selling individual cigarettes, McDonald dollar menus become a buck & a quarter, more Americans choosing to work in Mumbai for better opportunities and more people insert their earbuds listing to their new igadgets to drown out the meth lab operations next door.

What is needed is Big Brother-Corporate pronouncements with stars like Warren Buffet, T-bone Pickens, Jay-Z, Rush Limbaugh, Charles Shumer, Mariah Carey, Oprah, Michelle Obama, Dick Cheney, Fox News, People magazine and TMZ entertainment needs to tell America that recovery is clearly back.

Kaa
07-24-2009, 03:09 PM
huh. just cant think of any civilized society that can do without law and order. can you?

I was talking about a strong hand needed to impose proper order.

You probably consider the degree of law-and-order in our society to be insufficient -- is that not so?


What sort of society lets its weakest people be preyed on by scum bags?

That's what I am saying -- you think we need MORE law, MORE order, MORE forcefully imposed. Right?


your sort of simplistic disdain for the police is ill informed, retarded, and just plain wrong. Try living with out us.

I don't see how recognizing the necessity of having a police force precludes me from having an opinion about the limits, rules, and procedures under which it should operate.

Kaa

George Jung
07-24-2009, 11:01 PM
The Times seems to be on the same page:


THE American recession appears to be nearing an end, but only after it has become the deepest downturn in more than half a century.



The index of leading indicators, which signals turning points in the economy, is rising at a rate that has accurately indicated the end of every recession since the index began to be compiled in 1959.
The index was reported this week to have risen for the third consecutive month in June, and to have risen at a 12.8 percent annual rate over those three months. Such a rise, pointed out Harm Bandholz, an economist with UniCredit Group, “has always marked the end of the contraction.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/business/economy/25charts.html?hpw

Ian Marchuk
07-24-2009, 11:57 PM
Very interesting considering how little of the "stimulus" booty has actually been spent. If indeed this is the turn around, I seriously question the wisdom of the astronomical borrowings that have been slated to be shoveled off the truck in the next six to twelve months..... I think the response has been reckless and if it continues to the degree that we have been led to believe that it will , will only serve to compound the negative impacts , albeit at a later date.

David G
07-25-2009, 01:52 AM
Very interesting considering how little of the "stimulus" booty has actually been spent. If indeed this is the turn around, I seriously question the wisdom of the astronomical borrowings that have been slated to be shoveled off the truck in the next six to twelve months..... I think the response has been reckless and if it continues to the degree that we have been led to believe that it will , will only serve to compound the negative impacts , albeit at a later date.

Mr. Marchuk,

If you go back and read about similar drastic downturns, one of the keys to a turnaround is confidence: consumer confidence; investor confidence; legislative confidence. Everyone wants to know that there's a strong hand on the tiller, and that someone is taking the situation bloody seriously.

We have that now, and the sheer size of the stimulus package helped - in part - to provide it. That could - in part - be why we're seeing some hopeful signs. It is also one of the reasons I see us still in a potentially fragile situation. That confidence can be a flighty creature... esp. at the cusp of a recovery. A significant external shock (for example) could still be devastating. Another oil crisis. A corruption scandal. A series of setbacks on the war front. Etc, etc.

There's some validity to your concern about the potential for a large future price to be paid. I am, however, a bit more hopeful than you seem to be. I can envision a variety of possible scenarios to describe the long-term consequences of the downturn, and of the size of the stimulus used to turn it around.

It's certainly possible that we and our descendants will be paying this off in multiple ways for a long while. It's also possible - as is not unheard of in economic history - that the size of the rebound, and a robust recovery, will generate sufficient additional tax revenue to ameliorate those costs... or even render them trivial. It's also possible that only a fraction of that stimulus money will ever be spent, and that the discussion will be rendered moot. That would suit me just fine. I'd rather see the money sunk into the start-up of a rational health care system - which in the long run will save us and our descendants money.

Cheers,

Ian Marchuk
07-25-2009, 10:14 AM
Yes David I would agree that Mr. Obama's ability to encourage confidence has been successful. So far so good.
My concern is that the sheer enormity of borrowing will be counterproductive. We saw a situation in the early eighties where massive cumulative money borrowings on the part of governments , led to rapidly rising interest rates. Upshot was 20% + rates , wide spread mortgage defaults, and industrial stagnation . Entire nations including ours hit a wall of debt. Interest on their debt consumed huge portions of their tax revenue. They responded with large increases in taxation levels just to service the debt.
The laws of unintended consequences are never suspended , no matter whose hand is on the tiller...

Milo Christensen
07-25-2009, 10:20 AM
. . . The laws of unintended consequences are never suspended , no matter whose hand is on the tiller...

It's very interesting to see that phrase popping up all over related to the current Congress's economic demolition programs. Why do so many so-called progressive programs end up with such serious unintended consequences?

Ian Marchuk
07-25-2009, 11:26 AM
The concept of unintended consequences is something that I have tried to emphasize for a couple of decades. Most pols and bureaucrats have blown it off or politely ignored it. We seem to be locked into a pattern of doing what is expedient and/or "popular" without guaging the hazards ,moral and otherwise.
A case in point: Fanny and Freddy and their loaning policies. They became an instrument of "social justice" and made it possible in the short term for millions to "own" homes that ,for whatever reason they could not afford. Big spikes in demand , inflationary cost increases in house prices etc. The mortgage interest deductibility policy compounded the distortion as well.
These sorts of policy choices have far more negative effects than pols were willing to consider. To all of our peril.

David G
07-25-2009, 01:24 PM
It's very interesting to see that phrase popping up all over related to the current Congress's economic demolition programs. Why do so many so-called progressive programs end up with such serious unintended consequences?

Milo,

Are you constitutionally disposed to becoming a pinata?

I hate that sort of blinkered, lopsided, nonsense. All decisions, all change, all programs... by all individuals, families, groups, and political persuasions... are subject to the laws of unintended consequences. I'm sure someone on the left will come along shortly and cite about eleventeen from Bush's years. There are certainly plenty of examples.

SMACK!! Quit being a lazy ninny instead of the thinking person you frequently are. You may well have a lucid thought behind that post. If so, please back up and restate it in some sort of coherent way.

Sincerely,

High C
07-25-2009, 01:58 PM
Milo,

Are you constitutionally disposed to becoming a pinata?

I hate that sort of blinkered, lopsided, nonsense. All decisions, all change, all programs... by all individuals, families, groups, and political persuasions... are subject to the laws of unintended consequences. I'm sure someone on the left will come along shortly and cite about eleventeen from Bush's years. There are certainly plenty of examples.

SMACK!! Quit being a lazy ninny instead of the thinking person you frequently are. You may well have a lucid thought behind that post. If so, please back up and restate it in some sort of coherent way.

Sincerely,

....ridiculous post :rolleyes:

David G
07-25-2009, 02:20 PM
....ridiculous post :rolleyes:

You mean ridiculous that anyone had to point out the obvious to Milo?

Or did you mean my viewpoint is ridiculous? If so... how so?

Cheers,

High C
07-25-2009, 02:32 PM
....did you mean my viewpoint is ridiculous?

Yes. Your criticism of Milo's post was ridiculous, and unworthy of further explanation if you don't get it by now.

David G
07-25-2009, 02:35 PM
Yes. Your criticism of Milo's post was ridiculous, and unworthy of further explanation if you don't get it by now.


Very well. I don't see your point, but probably best to avoid discussion if you can't articulate a credible argument.

Sincerely,

High C
07-25-2009, 02:42 PM
....probably best to avoid discussion if you can't articulate a credible argument....

Well you do seem to get it after all. It's probably best to avoid discussion if your idea of credible argument is to smack someone like a piņata.

Milo Christensen
07-25-2009, 03:48 PM
So, let's do some "truth or unintended consequences". Conservatives can do their thing on progressive legislation and progressives can do their thing on conservative legislation.

Ready? I'll start. The whole thing that started when the states, in a desperate effort to reduce their costs under the ADC/AFDC program started doing midnight home "inspections" for immoral or unsuitable settings for children. The presence of a man in the house was grounds for immediate loss of AFDC benefits.

Goal: rein in a Federally mandated program growing out of control.
Unintended consequence: more than a generation of young men growing up in poverty without fathers.

David G
07-25-2009, 05:10 PM
So, let's do some "truth or unintended consequences". Conservatives can do their thing on progressive legislation and progressives can do their thing on conservative legislation.

Ready? I'll start. The whole thing that started when the states, in a desperate effort to reduce their costs under the ADC/AFDC program started doing midnight home "inspections" for immoral or unsuitable settings for children. The presence of a man in the house was grounds for immediate loss of AFDC benefits.

Goal: rein in a Federally mandated program growing out of control.
Unintended consequence: more than a generation of young men growing up in poverty without fathers.

A classic example, sir. Very nice opening serve.

But my point - in case I stated it so poorly that not only High C missed it (not surprising), but that you did also (quite surprising) - is NOT that there aren't plenty of examples to be had from the Left. My point was that there are also going to be copious examples from the Right. I was objecting to your presentation of the issue as being limited to only "progressive programs."

Did you think such an approach would yield anything more productive than "Yeah, But..." from the other side?

Cheers,

George Roberts
07-25-2009, 05:29 PM
Ready? I'll start. The whole thing that started when the states, in a desperate effort to reduce their costs under the ADC/AFDC program started doing midnight home "inspections" for immoral or unsuitable settings for children. The presence of a man in the house was grounds for immediate loss of AFDC benefits.

Unintended consequence: more than a generation of young men growing up in poverty without fathers.

It certainly was a poor outcome. I have no problems with providing money for any poor household.

On the other hand a lot of people will chose the government trough rather than "honest" work.

Let's see many people think that taxing the rich and giving to the poor is a good idea. While I have no objections in general perhaps we could offer a path to the middle class for the poor. One that does not depend on the government dole.

High C
07-25-2009, 06:11 PM
A....High C missed it (not surprising...

:D High C missed nothing. High C just didn't like your smart ass style.

David G
07-25-2009, 06:27 PM
:D High C missed nothing. High C just didn't like your smart ass style.

:DWell, ol' son, don't have the slightest qualm in that position, as you are not - by a long, long, lariat - the first.

Although, I'm not sure in this case that smart-ass is an accurate description of my initial post to Milo. I'd describe it more as slightly snotty. One of my many faults is that I sometimes get a bit snotty when someone I like... and expect better of... falls unnecessarily short of expectations. If it'd been you, see, I'd have shrugged it off as being par for the (putt-putt) course :rolleyes:

Sincerely,

Milo Christensen
07-25-2009, 06:49 PM
. . . I was objecting to your presentation of the issue as being limited to only "progressive programs." . . .

Being very satisified with my life here in this great land, I see no need whatsoever for "progress" beyond certain carefully considered conservatively progressive programs. Therefore, I will object to secretive, ill-considered and hastily rushed progressive programs designed - in my opinion - to destroy the economy as an unintended consequence.

To avoid further disappointments, don't have any expectations of me.

Paul Pless
07-25-2009, 07:44 PM
conservatively progressivei love you milo :)

David G
07-25-2009, 07:59 PM
Being very satisified with my life here in this great land, I see no need whatsoever for "progress" beyond certain carefully considered conservatively progressive programs. Therefore, I will object to secretive, ill-considered and hastily rushed progressive programs designed - in my opinion - to destroy the economy as an unintended consequence.

To avoid further disappointments, don't have any expectations of me.

I don't know what it is with you 'progressive' sorts and reading. I never said I was disappointed... simply irritated ;)

David G
07-25-2009, 08:00 PM
Why does every discsion in this section need to end up with high school boys in a pissingg match?

You call THIS a pissin' match? <sheesh>:rolleyes:

Vince Brennan
07-25-2009, 08:15 PM
The lot o' yez, indeed.

http://usmilvets.org/Smileys/default/182.gif

David G
07-25-2009, 11:25 PM
The lot o' yez, indeed.

http://usmilvets.org/Smileys/default/182.gif

Vince,

Is it really true? Don't tease me now. I've dreamed for so long of graduating up to the short bus. Please let it be NOW at long last :p

Kaa
07-26-2009, 12:03 AM
Although, I'm not sure in this case that smart-ass is an accurate description of my initial post to Milo. I'd describe it more as slightly snotty.

Think there's a better word to describe most of your posts.

Smarmy.

Hope you like it :-)

Kaa

David G
07-26-2009, 12:46 AM
Kaa,

I assume you're talking about my posts in the Bilge. If so, you've come pretty close. Though 'smarmy' is one of those words that is less firmly defined than most. There are a lot of connotations. If you're thinking of the aspect that is overly servile, then I think you've missed the mark. If you're thinking of the sort of smarminess that reflects complacent ernestness, then I believe that you've nicked the bulls-eye in describing my approach to a response to certain posters here belowdecks.

Do I like it? If we're of one mind on the exact connotations, then I'm gratified that you recognized the approach. It's true, though, that I have a ways to go before I can achieve the true unctuousness that some of the posts and posters here deserve.

How would you characterize the majority of your posts?

Very sincerely,

Kaa
07-26-2009, 12:53 AM
Though 'smarmy' is one of those words that is less firmly defined than most.

That's a good thing, isn't it? :D


How would you characterize the majority of your posts?

That's not for me to say.

Kaa

Milo Christensen
07-26-2009, 07:18 AM
Well, if anyone deserves a seriously smarmy, slightly snotty, smart-ass response it would certainly be me, the original, the one and only pinata boy, so carry on.

When I want servile, I go talk to the neighbor's black lab.

Flying Orca
07-26-2009, 08:42 AM
That's not for me to say.

I sense a great disturbance in the Force - as if millions of voices suddenly cried out, but then bit their tongues. :D

shamus
07-26-2009, 09:11 AM
I'll characterise Kaa's posts for ya.

Intelligent, comes to mind.

MiddleAgesMan
07-26-2009, 10:00 AM
I was more than a little disturbed and surprised by what I heard on CNBC a couple days ago. They had a panel of 7 or 8 talking heads trying to answer the very same question posted at the top of this thread.

Three of the panelists predicted a huge dip in the DOW over the next six months or so. Two of them even predicted where it was headed--one said 3800 in 2010, the other said 4000.

So a small minority of financial analysts on CNBC don't think we are coming out of the recession. I dare say a DOW at or below 4000 next year might be better described as a deep depression...but that didn't stop me from putting some cash to work...short term anyway. :( (In the past few weeks I've gone from about 50/50 cash/equities to about 33/67....It's very nervous-making, though, and I'll be bailing out at the first sign those minority opinions might be right.)

L.W. Baxter
07-26-2009, 11:29 AM
MiddleAgesMan, those commentators are just trying to become the next "Dr. Doom". Nouriel Roubini has become world famous as a "prophet" for being one of the direst voices before the crash.

You don't get famous, or even draw attention in the short term, by saying what everybody else is saying; you have to make extreme predictions. Having them come true can make your career as an "expert".

George Roberts
07-26-2009, 02:56 PM
I was more than a little disturbed and surprised by what I heard on CNBC a couple days ago. They had a panel of 7 or 8 talking heads trying to answer the very same question posted at the top of this thread.

Three of the panelists predicted a huge dip in the DOW over the next six months or so. Two of them even predicted where it was headed--one said 3800 in 2010, the other said 4000.

So a small minority of financial analysts on CNBC don't think we are coming out of the recession. I dare say a DOW at or below 4000 next year might be better described as a deep depression...but that didn't stop me from putting some cash to work...short term anyway. :( (In the past few weeks I've gone from about 50/50 cash/equities to about 33/67....It's very nervous-making, though, and I'll be bailing out at the first sign those minority opinions might be right.)

...

David G
07-26-2009, 05:08 PM
MiddleAgesMan, those commentators are just trying to become the next "Dr. Doom". Nouriel Roubini has become world famous as a "prophet" for being one of the direst voices before the crash.

You don't get famous, or even draw attention in the short term, by saying what everybody else is saying; you have to make extreme predictions. Having them come true can make your career as an "expert".

Yup... this is not an uncommon phenomenon in academic circles. It's expanded as the # of media outlets has ballooned, and both the potential for, and the difficulty of getting noticed (and cashing in) has increased.

And they're mostly not just blowing smoke. They all have some valid underpinnings for their speculation. In this case, I'd guess that they're gauging the fragility I talked about earlier, and risking a throw of the dice on a prediction that the various areas of vulnerability will be sufficient to resist a full recovery on the first pass. Unfortunately, in the end, that's all it is for anyone who tries on the "Economic Forecaster" hat, even for those fully immersed in the data, intellectually rigorous, and intuitive as well - it remains an informed guess at best.

Even with the mind-boggling power of modern day computers and statistical modeling software - the real world is still too complex and too dynamic to accurately predict. And - even with all that power, econometric modeling is only as accurate as the model that's built to feed the data into the program. GIGO. I used to endear myself to some of the professors in grad school by calling such meaningless modeling Mathematical Masturbation.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if someone fairly accurately predicts the upcoming arc of the economy. The question is - which of the many voices is the correct one? No way to know till after the fact. And my experience is - even if a forecaster is correct about period x... it doesn't mean she'll be correct about subsequent period y. Seems like there is no system, no model, that accurately tracks the changes in such a way as to keep current.

boylesboats
07-27-2009, 12:20 PM
Man it gonna be a long time before recession is over

High C
07-28-2009, 09:32 AM
Here's a little good news:

"U.S. home prices see first rise in three years"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090728/bs_nm/us_economy_homes_index_6